I suspect that this debate will all be academic shortly.
Forgive me for referring to Yes Minister yet again.
However, it is always instructive to one degree or another.
Such as.
I think that there are a number of scenarios under which Putin will
authorise the use of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons.
He has just sacked army generals and the head and deputy head
of the FSB directorate responsible for prosecuting the war at a
strategic level.
Putin has never had close ties to the Russian military, so much of
the blame was attached to the FSB. Of which he was head, in the 90's.
If you look at the drone images of Mariupol, its clear that the Russians
are prepared to reduce Ukrainian cities to ashes. This is their strategy
for reducing their own casualties. Their goals are territory, not
infrastructure or people.
I believe that the Russians are deciding or have decided where they
can best employ WMDs and that one or more will be used soon.
(Perhaps in conjunction with a special forces raid to kill the Ukrainian
President.) Their assumption being that, once they demonstrate their
willingness to use WMDs, the Ukrainians will surrender immediately.
The location may be one where they've claimed the Ukrainians are
developing WMDs of their own.
Long story short. Apologies again.
I suspect that things will get a lot worse before they get better.
Afterwards, tens of millions of Ukrainians will not be able to return
or won't want to return, because winter will be approaching and
there will be no infrastructure whatsoever to support them in large
parts of Ukraine.
Personally, I believe that it would be better for the Ukrainian refugees
if they were all brought to a central hub. Like a recently decommissioned
military camp or similar. That way everything they need can be brought to
them and they are surrounded by people they know and trust.
Our own public services are at breaking point in many areas and Covid
is spiking again. So we really need to take a structured approach, if we
are going to accept refugees for what will need to be an extended
period.
No matter what happens. Russia will owe massive reparations to Ukraine
and I hope that this aspect of whatever peace settlement emerges, is
rigorously enforced.