Shares to watch

Delmonte

Member
Messages
332
So everyones saying get out of shares, get into cash (ive done this in my SIPP) but get into gold due to expected inflation making cash devalue. I cant get into gold in the sipp, so what should i do with it?

Also, if we get inflation or even hyperinflation, will this make stocks increase, at least relative to cash?
Very much an amateur here, looking for help from the more experienced
 

lozcb

Member
Messages
9,591
So everyones saying get out of shares, get into cash (ive done this in my SIPP) but get into gold due to expected inflation making cash devalue. I cant get into gold in the sipp, so what should i do with it?

Also, if we get inflation or even hyperinflation, will this make stocks increase, at least relative to cash?
Very much an amateur here, looking for help from the more experienced
Wattie Froddy or Maseratigent might be able to advise you there , Im just a mere miner ( african gold project ) if you had available funds i could probably get you some
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
261
Don't know what that means
Basically, the herd is usually wrong (and lose to "the house"). This survey suggests that a large majority (including myself) think the S&P is going lower (in the ratio of 76:24). The herd may be right this time - we just don't know ...

From a technical perspective, the rally we are seeing now (a short squeeze) is pretty typical, and it classically continues until it reaches a level where the people who bought at that level now have their money back and want out. The problem is that the markets no longer reflect the psychology of their participants as they are hugely manipulated by QE
 
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MaseratiGent

Member
Messages
127
I think it's important to differentiate from near term views and long term. In the long term some companies are going to do well come what may (yes their share price may dive and be volatile) but they will still be around.

My view on companies is to look at which are indebted and separately who will not do well over the next 12m (high unemployment, very different direction of consumer disposable spending, likely higher taxes). Those I am not touching.

Overlaid is in my own view is there is increased systemic risk - largely due to the last 10y of monetary policy. Inflation will rear its head if it's going to months away so there is no immediate risk of that and time to consider ones options. One has to assume the system carries on as is but be mindful of its fragility and what to do if it does break down. That this was the fastest sell-off in history is instructive to fragility - and the central banks have undertaken more of what created this situation in the first place. None of what I write is a recommendation just my own thoughts/experience from long ago having been a trader.
 

Contigo

Centenary Club
Messages
17,981
Shorted the DOW over the weekend and closed out Monday. Then today there is the mother of all recoveries, please tell me this is false! FTSE up massively on news of Trump's bailout $2Tn package. It looks to me like it's all going to come crashing down spectacularly soon.

Thoughts?
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
261
Shorted the DOW over the weekend and closed out Monday. Then today there is the mother of all recoveries, please tell me this is false! FTSE up massively on news of Trump's bailout $2Tn package. It looks to me like it's all going to come crashing down spectacularly soon.

Thoughts?
These are extremely difficult times if you're short-term trading - the moves are massive and will crush you!

What we're seeing is a short squeeze - a rally which accelerates as the shorts have to cover their positions and they thereby fuel the rally. EMAs are good points of reference, and typically at Fibonacci ratios (i.e. 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89) ...
 

O37

Junior Member
Messages
85
Nice day working from home......too many bears on here :p

View attachment 67389
Another day.....more silly moves...
67448

Agree, try not to follow the crowd - be it bull or bear - that said their influence will be inversely proportional to the company market cap.

Not one to follow technical analysis but common sense should be applied, we know the market hates uncertainty - China may be about to provide some when restrictions are lifted on April 8th!

At the moment the US simulas is helping enormously, for how long I don't know - in normal times I'd follow a key market data calendar such as one here - very useful.

https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/

Good luck...
 

Contigo

Centenary Club
Messages
17,981
These are extremely difficult times if you're short-term trading - the moves are massive and will crush you!

What we're seeing is a short squeeze - a rally which accelerates as the shorts have to cover their positions and they thereby fuel the rally. EMAs are good points of reference, and typically at Fibonacci ratios (i.e. 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89) ...
Yep makes sense, most thought it was going crashing down so if they can't afford the margin then they close them out by buying back and thus fuelling the rise hence a short squeeze. I just can't face starting a short at say 5700 (FTSE 100) and then seeing it rise to say 5850 and being -£800 margin and it keep rising!!! I have used guaranteed stops today and made a few quid on the swings but just when I thought I could call it it does the complete opposite. I guess I need a better crystal ball or watch the news for a macroclimate event to trigger a sell of!
 

O37

Junior Member
Messages
85
Yep makes sense, most thought it was going crashing down so if they can't afford the margin then they close them out by buying back and thus fuelling the rise hence a short squeeze. I just can't face starting a short at say 5700 (FTSE 100) and then seeing it rise to say 5850 and being -£800 margin and it keep rising!!! I have used guaranteed stops today and made a few quid on the swings but just when I thought I could call it it does the complete opposite. I guess I need a better crystal ball or a watch the news for a macroclimate event to trigger a sell of!
Done day trading - too immersive and stressful - can take over your life - I like the fact you build a portfolio and then only look after a day at work home
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
4,367
So everyones saying get out of shares, get into cash (ive done this in my SIPP) but get into gold due to expected inflation making cash devalue. I cant get into gold in the sipp, so what should i do with it?

Also, if we get inflation or even hyperinflation, will this make stocks increase, at least relative to cash?
Very much an amateur here, looking for help from the more experienced
Why can’t you get in Gold via your SIpp?
Ask your provider if you can invest in physical gold via the Sipp facilities that Gold Money or Bullion Vault offer.
Should be easy for them to add.
If not,set up another Sipp that does offer the facility, @Sipp for example , then set up a GoldMoney facility and transfer some funds to the new account.
This Is what I have- an @Sipp Gold money physical account for my pension.

Aggressive interest rate cuts and unprecedented liquidity injections by key central banks will ensure the cost of carrying gold remains minimal. Meanwhile, a slowing global economy should also ultimately encourage a rotation from stock and bond markets to defensive assets such as gold."

European stock markets today reversed an earlier loss to head for 2-week highs on the EuroStoxx600 index, while gold bullion priced in the Euro retreated from touching €1520 overnight, its highest since the current all-time top of €1561 hit this time last month”

The UK gold price in Pounds per ounce meantime set a fresh record high, coming within £10 of £1400 before also easing back.
 
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Froddy

Member
Messages
261
Possible FTSE Fibonacci timing reversal on Friday? It's really difficult to predict anything in these crazy times, but this would be the typical pattern. NOT advice ...
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
4,367

Fellas, ZH do a very good daily market summary,

Some very interesting reads on there today re the situation. - DYOR.
 
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rockits

Member
Messages
7,106
Shorted the DOW over the weekend and closed out Monday. Then today there is the mother of all recoveries, please tell me this is false! FTSE up massively on news of Trump's bailout $2Tn package. It looks to me like it's all going to come crashing down spectacularly soon.

Thoughts?
Like most have said I think a little rise then another hefty fall I think.

I sold all my Barclays, Lloyds and RBS this morning after the weird false hefty rise.

Barclays swing between low and high was 15% I think! Mental.

I've dabbled in the background this month with only a small amount of £25k and made 11% and then back into cash. Better than earning zero in the bank but not too much risk the way it played.

You could easily make much more and easily lose much more. I'm happy just nicking bits here and there at low risk buying dips and getting back out too early before the peaks.

All tax free in the Investment ISA's with some little spreadbets here and there.

I have still have a couple of gold and prescious metal miners and bought some Stobarts on dip today. Also some Novacyt left which have been the best return in and out a few times.

Out for today and tomorrow unless something pops out and slaps me in the face to see what Friday weekend and Monday brings. End of week, month and quarter. End of financial year so all sorts going on....would rather be out and safe just in case it all kicks off this weekend.