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MaseratiGent

Member
Messages
128
Gold still climbing guys,

Looking like it going to top the $1700 oz mark
Silver outperforming - check the gold/silver ratio. There is a general institutional bid and an extreme retail bid for both but retail is skewed to silver as it's cheaper/more accessible in retail form.

I suspect there's added logic for retail aside from the usual safety commodity: ultimate inflation hedge with this experimental monetary policy
 

lozcb

Member
Messages
9,592
Very nearly made it at one point .....................................its coming thats for sure



67384
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
4,367
Some good results there.

The problem that exists with these markets (and it should be clear to everyone now) is that there is no true price discovery. Any rise is due solely to massive amounts of money out of thin air....not fundamentals.
Trillions.
Ponzi schemes rely on new money coming in- bailouts, stimulus, whatever the feck they call it.....and they’re gonna need trillions more.....it’s gonna get worse.

It’s indicitive of how bad the situation is that having created all this-that markets have barely responded.

Ie Tesla, up 20% last night? Really, who’s gonna be buying Tesla’s and indeed how are they getting made in this environment.
Debt has imploded, how many bust Americans are gonna default soon.....they’ll be handing back their Tesla’s.

Personally i’d sell any rally. You ought to be preparing for what happens post all this, financially.

Trump seems to be talking about sending America back to work- by Easter. Not happening. The US is possibly on the verge of Implosion. No amount of money or BS from Trump is gonna help the deteriorating economic and social situation over there. His version of reality is not what Americans are experiencing.

67391
 

Bladerunner

Member
Messages
152
Some good results there.

The problem that exists with these markets (and it should be clear to everyone now) is that there is no true price discovery. Any rise is due solely to massive amounts of money out of thin air....not fundamentals.
Trillions.
Ponzi schemes rely on new money coming in- bailouts, stimulus, whatever the feck they call it.....and they’re gonna need trillions more.....it’s gonna get worse.

It’s indicitive of how bad the situation is that having created all this-that markets have barely responded.

Ie Tesla, up 20% last night? Really, who’s gonna be buying Tesla’s and indeed how are they getting made in this environment.
Debt has imploded, how many bust Americans are gonna default soon.....they’ll be handing back their Tesla’s.

Personally i’d sell any rally. You ought to be preparing for what happens post all this, financially.

Trump seems to be talking about sending America back to work- by Easter. Not happening. The US is possibly on the verge of Implosion. No amount of money or BS from Trump is gonna help the deteriorating economic and social situation over there. His version of reality is not what Americans are experiencing.

View attachment 67391
So you’re suggesting to get out of share holdings or bank any upside now, in favour of cash/gold...before things potentially go worse?

Just watched a couple of reports suggesting this could be a bounce back (‘false uplift’) as seen in 2008, just before markets dropped further.
 

MaseratiGent

Member
Messages
128
Central banks control their respective countries' currencies....until once every 100 years they lose control.

The issue that's been going on since 2008 is that CBs have continued to rely on the fact the population has trust in our currency (because nothing is actually backing it other than trust, i.e. that is the definition of fiat currency instead of the pre-Bretton Woods gold standard). When sterilized and unsterilized quantitative easing went on the guy on the street didn't really care. It didn't affect him. It was banking jargon. What was actually happening was that (example):
Society/economy has £1trn in cash (invested, in the bank, under the bed). The central banks electronically created 100bn more and used that money buy government bonds. In doing so they debassed/reduced the value of your savings/investments by 10%. You didn't care/notice because companies are leveraged and so they benefited x3 or x4 and their share prices went up a lot - so did your investments and pensions. But look at house prices as well.. the poor didn't get any wage inflation, or real wage increases, but asset prices went up which they could not have (bonds, shares houses). They got angy. They got populist.

What just happened is that the US Federal Reserve (and UK) promise to make UNLIMITED electronic money. It's going to **** all over 2008. If you think equities did well today - they didn't. In absolute terms yes, but physical gold out performed. Physical gold/silver/bitcoin a few others cannot be debassed and are an ultimate store of real wealth. Great, shares double but you savings more than halve and your wages worth less than 50% to today - that is the cost of printing money. It has never worked in history. Ever.

Irrespective of this monetary policy vandalism we have profligate fiscal policy (which is keynesian and understandable but there will be wealth tax coming to repay it all - govs will cite the stability they created and that you would have 0 otherwise; it's a noxious mix).

I expect the short squeeze from **** for a few days then a reasonable (i.e 20-40% implied & realized vol) sell off over the next few months - bifurcation between leveraged and unleveraged firms with the cleavage overlay of the 'new' economy firms e.g. logistics vs airlines.
 

rockits

Member
Messages
7,109
I am no broker, analyst or otherwise but it is all crumbling and has been for years. I am expecting a little rise then a fall again at some point further than we have done already. There will be another catalyst. Not sure what yet. Maybe worsening CV, maybe the domino effect caused by the CV to start biting. It hasn't bitten yet...not by a long stretch.

One thing is for sure.....this isn't going away. Certainly not overnight or in weeks or months. No amount of printing money can stop it. The problem is as soon as the tap is turned off the supporting structure fails and it has to fall down.

The only way out will be to keep pumping air into that already massively inflated balloon. You can't do it forever surely.

You need to stop inflating the balloon and start deflating it slowly. If you make it simple it actually is. The balloon IMHO is the perfect analogy here.

This constant BS about companies that haemorrhage millions and never make a profit but are sold for millions is crazy. The big balloon is constructed of lots of smaller balloons. We need to stop these p1ssing balloons as their gonna blow. If they allow the balloons to inflate thinking it is strong enough that is a big risk. They may never blow but I think they will and if they do......holy sh1t....that is one h3ll of a sh1t storm. One that nobody on earth can remotely accurately predict the fallout.
 
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Wattie

Member
Messages
4,367
So you’re suggesting to get out of share holdings or bank any upside now, in favour of cash/gold...before things potentially go worse?

Just watched a couple of reports suggesting this could be a bounce back (‘false uplift’) as seen in 2008, just before markets dropped further.
Its a very dificult situation.....but I see stocks down 50-60% from here as the US implodes- which it will.

This guy has called it correct from day 1. worth a read/watch


The bottom line is that the economic position is dire- everything is effectively on life support - which is going to cause its own set of problems. Read my Hyperinflation post earlier and Maserati Gents above.

Gold is has run out and if you are not in physical possession its possibly too late.


Silver is a good second and cheaper...more volatile though.

If you want a share tip with morbidly good fundamentals, how about this. SCI (NYSE) up 5% yesterday.

Others, https://247wallst.com/investing/2011/01/13/the-ten-companies-that-control-the-death-industry/

Its a terrible way to look at the crisis but if it gives you and your family the financial security you'll need moving forward then they're worth a look.

[URL="http://www.uk-funerals.co.uk/funeral-industry.html[/URL]"]www.uk-funerals.co.uk/funeral-industry.html[/URL]

Other fundamentally good options a(assuming they stay staffed) are precious metal miners. If Gold rises 5% the quality miners will double triple that.

Some US Funeral Stocks,


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outrun

Centenary Club
Messages
4,245
I’ve been tempted by NEX which is National Express. They’ve dropped 75% but have huge cash reserves and surely they will come back when normal service resumes. Currently at 134, 52 week high was 485. It’s an essential service that will always ultimately be protected so I see it as a 12 month hold.

I rarely buy shares however I work in private equity and so do keep an eye out and close to the news. This moment will create great opportunity, and already is. In the crash of 2008, Blackstone made a killing when the bought distressed properties in the States from the sub-prime lenders. They where buying $125m a month of homes at peak and returned 3x or so across the lot. They also bought Hilton Hotels, actually before that, and it become the largest VC return of it’s type in history. They saw a set of great locations that had not been invested in so they spent the money, created a franchise model for roll out and nailed the market.

The other area that i have experience in is life sciences and Pharma. Obviously these are hot areas however there is a play to learn who will capitalise on the Covid-19 market. There is a race to get a vaccine produced, which will obviously be fast-tracked, and a select few will have right over IP, production and distribution. We’ve already seen Trump upset the Germans by offering $1bn to a German bio that seems to be at the head of the race. Personally, I think the Chinese will come up with it first as 1) they started researching earlier and 2) they already have a faster regulatory structure. Whether the west accepts this or not is another thing. If they do, you’ll see out licensing deals worth billions and I’d expect Pfizer to be at the head of that race as they are the largest vaccine production experts. There a number of Chinese life sciences companies that have USA presence and they are hot bets as they have the acceptable route to market.
 

Bladerunner

Member
Messages
152
I’ve been tempted by NEX which is National Express. They’ve dropped 75% but have huge cash reserves and surely they will come back when normal service resumes. Currently at 134, 52 week high was 485. It’s an essential service that will always ultimately be protected so I see it as a 12 month hold.

I rarely buy shares however I work in private equity and so do keep an eye out and close to the news. This moment will create great opportunity, and already is. In the crash of 2008, Blackstone made a killing when the bought distressed properties in the States from the sub-prime lenders. They where buying $125m a month of homes at peak and returned 3x or so across the lot. They also bought Hilton Hotels, actually before that, and it become the largest VC return of it’s type in history. They saw a set of great locations that had not been invested in so they spent the money, created a franchise model for roll out and nailed the market.

The other area that i have experience in is life sciences and Pharma. Obviously these are hot areas however there is a play to learn who will capitalise on the Covid-19 market. There is a race to get a vaccine produced, which will obviously be fast-tracked, and a select few will have right over IP, production and distribution. We’ve already seen Trump upset the Germans by offering $1bn to a German bio that seems to be at the head of the race. Personally, I think the Chinese will come up with it first as 1) they started researching earlier and 2) they already have a faster regulatory structure. Whether the west accepts this or not is another thing. If they do, you’ll see out licensing deals worth billions and I’d expect Pfizer to be at the head of that race as they are the largest vaccine production experts. There a number of Chinese life sciences companies that have USA presence and they are hot bets as they have the acceptable route to market.
Cheers Outrun, let’s us know the Pharmas you’re referring too other than Pfizer to put on watch lists...
 

rockits

Member
Messages
7,109
Indeed....I agree. Just seems like the markets are creating some opportunity to make some cash with a false rise to allow buyers to flood in so they can dump and the fall follows.

The sunshine is helping to put people in false good spirits. Many will be saying it will all go back to normal and all be OK once we are through this. If it bites harder and hard I don't think it will be OK for many years.

The devil in the detail is we have something like double the debt levels we had in the GFC of 2007/2008. I am sure this must have more impact this time.
 

O37

Junior Member
Messages
85
The sunshine is helping to put people in false good spirits. Many will be saying it will all go back to normal and all be OK once we are through this. If it bites harder and hard I don't think it will be OK for many years.
..or the US futures...its all about fear and greed - keep them in equal measure. Stock markets price the future not the now....good luck