Shares to watch

tan55555

Member
Messages
163
There have been some previous chats around shares that are good investments, anyone got any tips for shares to buy in 2020? There were some interesting ones last time.
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
5,241
Surprised no-ones piped up. Riverama, I suspect, has a few good ones that he can point in your direction.
Check out “visa”. V - it’s on a tear. Apple on the up and up, Tesla too.FAANG?
Beware tho as the Fed cut its balance sheet overnight.
I think the big company gold stocks are generally undervalued,
As always do your own research.
 

Contigo

Centenary Club
Messages
18,159
Don’t get me started on shares! I am invested in lots and have traded loads but the current market is shot. If you want to be added to an investors WA group let me know.
 

Ewan

Member
Messages
3,822
Obviously it’s a minefield, with people having different requirements and expectations, and different attitudes to risk.
But for the sake of throwing in a suggestion, and one I’ve mentioned before, try Ideagen PLC (listed on AIM). I was an early investor and it’s grown constantly and steadily at about 20-30% per year over the last decade. Revenue and profits continue to grow and I’d expect maybe 20% share price increase this year.
It’s a share I've held for years and will continue to do so. Added some more to my portfolio last Spring and they‘ve done well, up from about £1.45 to £1.85 approx.
(Obviously this is not a get-rich-quick penny share, but neither is it a lifeless steady Eddie. Just provides continuous growth, way ahead of the general market.)
 

MaseratiGent

Member
Messages
144
This is my personal opinion and not investment advice.

We are at the end of the credit cycle.

  1. I would be looking to investment in lowly-leveraged companies. There has already been a dichotomy over the last 18 months in share price performance of highly levered companies (BBB+ and below) and less levered (A- and above); levered have halved in price compared to less levered.
  2. Rotating into counter cyclical investments (e.g. administration companies, budget store chains).
For me Begbies Traynor and Greggs have done phenomenally well. Both have no leverage, countercyclical.

I am avoiding 'dividend stocks' and bond investments like the plague.
 

MaseratiGent

Member
Messages
144
Interesting. Why are you avoiding dividend stocks out of interest?
Dividend payout ratios are at a record high (not just since the last crisis but in general). A lot of corporates have been undertaking share buyback programmes funded by debt issuance (101: bad idea). Corporates need all the cash they can have to pay down debt, not finance dividend payouts to maintain high share prices and having management options in-the-money.

VOD is a perfect example of a reasonably levered stock with high dividends realizing it needed to cut dividends to sate debt repayment - its share price has halved in 18 months. Its dividend yield is still high because of the massive share price drop since cutting the dividend!

Any company that's not especially asset rich (for receovery proceeds/securing debt) should not be above a 2.5x EBITDA/Debt ratio, at the very most.

We are in capital preservation mode.
 

Silvercat

Member
Messages
834
Having spent the last 31 years working for BAE SYSTEMS (Defence) in some pretty senior procurement roles ( but now retired) , I would be looking to buy more shares in BAES. They are winning an awful lot of new business just now across all sectors (Air, Land and Sea) and much more to come on the back of the F35 fighter aircraft programme through Lockheed Martin, Type45 and Type26 ships...plus more orders for Typhoon coming, then certainly one to watch! But just my view by the way. Others may have a different opinion.
 

Phil H

Member
Messages
2,380
Having spent the last 31 years working for BAE SYSTEMS (Defence) in some pretty senior procurement roles ( but now retired) , I would be looking to buy more shares in BAES. They are winning an awful lot of new business just now across all sectors (Air, Land and Sea) and much more to come on the back of the F35 fighter aircraft programme through Lockheed Martin, Type45 and Type26 ships...plus more orders for Typhoon coming, then certainly one to watch! But just my view by the way. Others may have a different opinion.
Shares for most of the large defence companies have bounced around quite a bit in the last few years, and BAE is no exception; they may have room for growth on the back of the projects you mention, but past performance in that sector has been hampered by engineering and political baggage. Will a stable 5 year government improve things?

PH
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
5,241
Dividend payout ratios are at a record high (not just since the last crisis but in general). A lot of corporates have been undertaking share buyback programmes funded by debt issuance (101: bad idea). Corporates need all the cash they can have to pay down debt, not finance dividend payouts to maintain high share prices and having management options in-the-money.

VOD is a perfect example of a reasonably levered stock with high dividends realizing it needed to cut dividends to sate debt repayment - its share price has halved in 18 months. Its dividend yield is still high because of the massive share price drop since cutting the dividend!

Any company that's not especially asset rich (for receovery proceeds/securing debt) should not be above a 2.5x EBITDA/Debt ratio, at the very most.

We are in capital preservation mode.
You sound like you’re well informed to me and I agree with your views. Im also in capital preservation mode. What’s your views on the current economic state of play, central bank intervention, Fed repo etc
As far as I’m concerned the minute the Fed tries to normalise its monetary policy this whole thing falls apart.....globally- like Nov 2018!

Ps. Seems like capital preservation mode is the order of the day as we’ve just woken up to a string of bank tests messages. Seems some bast4rd has done $4700 on the Mrs credit card overnight. Usual stuff, Xbox etc.
A pox on them.
 
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rockits

Member
Messages
7,755
As far as I’m concerned the minute the Fed tries to normalise its monetary policy this whole thing falls apart.....globally- like Nov 2018!
IMHO they should have never tried all this apparently clever quantitive easing and printing money mullarkey. Maybe once or twice in severe extreme cases and for not as much. It certainly shouldn't be a blase common regular tool to use every fiv minutes.

Whose bright idea was it? What did they think was going to happen long term if they kept using it?
They should have just let the pain ensue and let the market correct itself.

Seems some bast4rd has done $4700 on the Mrs credit card overnight. Usual stuff, Xbox etc.
A pox on them.
Sorry to hear that. I'm guessing the cc company will deal with it correctly?
Any ideas on how or where the card might have been compromised?
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
5,241
IMHO they should have never tried all this apparently clever quantitive easing and printing money mullarkey. Maybe once or twice in severe extreme cases and for not as much. It certainly shouldn't be a blase common regular tool to use every fiv minutes.

Whose bright idea was it? What did they think was going to happen long term if they kept using it?
They should have just let the pain ensue and let the market correct itself.



Sorry to hear that. I'm guessing the cc company will deal with it correctly?
Any ideas on how or where the card might have been compromised?
Agreed, once, extraordinary emergency money policy- has become standard practice.

Thanks.Yeah, some money has left and has gone on”dispute’. Takes around 5-7 days to return apparently. Pending transactions will be cancelled.......cards been cancelled too, which is a nuisance as it takes 5-7 days for a new one.
No liability for us say bank so fine. No idea how it was compromised.
What gets me though is that the dozen online transaction were for goods. Ie Xbox. If someone has bought goods online then presumably they are gonna “click and collect” or take delivery......
That surely gives away their identity and makes an arrest easy? Dunno if the bank even inform the police.
 

rockits

Member
Messages
7,755
I think this is the problem with many crimes going either unreported or unpunished as decisions are made based on how much it would cost to pursue.

Same as insurance company decisions.....just pay out regardless of blame as more cost effective.

It comes a point where we need to pursue and punish even if it costs a bit more than is warranted short term. Maybe it would reduce the attraction to the crime.

With all the AI software and spend profile data I don't get how some of this stuff works and is allowed to happen. With our work credit cards we often buy kit from some suppliers we don't deal with regularly or have credit accounts with. We often have transactions that get blocked as we are buying IT/tech kit. The amount of times we have called and told them.....yes we are an IT reseller....that is what we do.

The mind boggles when it comes to monetary policy! I am no Economist but studied A Level Economics and Business Studies so understand a little. I don't understand some current policies and strategies that is for sure.
 

Silvercat

Member
Messages
834
Shares for most of the large defence companies have bounced around quite a bit in the last few years, and BAE is no exception; they may have room for growth on the back of the projects you mention, but past performance in that sector has been hampered by engineering and political baggage. Will a stable 5 year government improve things?

PH
I think it will and a Govt who actually sees the need for defence spending unlike some other political parties I could mention. Right now It's been recommended as a 'buy' stock by several city analysts.
 

Delmonte

Member
Messages
580
Aston has surely bottomed? Ditto Boeing?
Greggs topped out for a while?
(These are more questions for the more clued up than recommendations....)
Opinions please
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
370
Hi Delmonte,

Unfortunately, nobody knows whether any of these stocks have topped or bottomed (nor can anybody ever know). However, for what it's worth, my take on this is as follows:

I wouldn't be an Aston seller, as it's well-supported by the VPOC (Volume Point of Control) which sits at 5.785625

Boeing absolutely could go lower as it's sitting at the 21 period exponential moving average on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. It therefore has scope to fall to (at least) two standard deviations below the mean at 313, 290 or 215 respectively (monthly example below).

Greggs is overbought on the monthly chart (at +3 standard deviations), but has just broken out of its range (a bullish sign). Interestingly, there is bearish divergence on the RSI (Relative Strength Index) which means you would not want to rush into buying this stock (chart below with divergence marked with red arrows). This does not mean it can't go up further in the short-term, just that there may be trouble over the coming months. Price ALWAYS reverts to the mean (the thick purple line) ...

If you were long this stock, you'd probably have a short-term target at the 1.272 fibonacci extension of the previous swing low on the monthly chart, at c. 2716

Hope this helps!
 
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rivarama

Member
Messages
881
I have the most boring and best sleep facilitating portfolio of all: 95% of my stock investment is in low fee passive ETF that replicate global indexes - VWRL and to a lesser extent ISF (to exploit higher FTSE100 dividend rate paired w lower historical GBP level).
All research show times and times again that individual stock picking cannot beat the market in the long term - so might as well replicate it, receive a chunky dividend every quarter and sleep better at night.
The balance of my portfolio is spread across global bonds passive ETF, and a small part in precious metal. The individual stock I hold (less than 5% of my NW) are pure bets based on macro economic trends when I see market over reaction.
The weighting of all asset class would depend on your age, invest horizon and risk profile. All very personal.