Sale of ICE cars 9 years left

BennyD

Sea Urchin Pate
Messages
15,006
Tbh, this EV bolloxcs is just the latest fad. Can you start to imagine the insurance costs for injury claims of tripping over extension cables on a dark street when every terrace house has an EV. The next thing will be adaptors; companies will start making very expensive adaptors which you can only buy from them. Traffic jams leading into motorway service stations because people are waiting for cars ahead of them to finish charging. Infrastructure not being able to keep up with soaring power demand. It’s just the latest knee jerk green bolloxcs which will run out of steam when the problems with it become too expensive to fix.
 
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Andyk

Member
Messages
61,165
It's 9 years away and a lot can happen in 9 years. Lotus are already talking about a 500 mile range from their electric car they are developing. This will filter down surely to every electric motor as if one can do it all can.
 

dickygrace

www.richardgracecars.co.uk
Messages
7,339
I don't think we will change over to EV's overnight either. The key is to get dailies and the mainstream commercial infrastructure like Amazon etc. using EV's which is certainly possibly and is already coming. Our miniscule impacts of low miles Maserati V8's has little to no significance.

This is a good watch though:

Thanks for the link Dean, I agree with your thought on our cars being a minuscule part of the problem. But the one thing I want to know, and Harris asked Graham, is about manufacture CO2 vs tail pipe emissions. Graham avoided the question, it doesn’t sit comfortably with EV users.

‘ The upshot is that – despite common claims to contrary – the embodied emissions of a car typically rival the exhaust pipe emissions over its entire lifetime.’ from the article here: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car

As far as I can understand, I cannot see how it can be perceived as eco-friendly to buy an EV. Surely buying a second hand car is the most eco-friendly thing we can do. Am I missing something?
 

safrane

Member
Messages
16,880
We recently bought a XC90 T8, which is a 'twin engined hybrid. Not had it long, but so far it has been decent.

It only has an electrical range of c23 miles, but that covers all the miles we do domestically.

For my work commute it is a different story as that is 100 miles return; however with both power sources working consecutively I get c45/48 mpg over that journey if I charge at the office. Broadly speaking it achieves similar mpg as my previous diesel.

There is no way I would buy a full electric, as the range is too low even at 300 miles...I would not be happy taking a 40 min break on my way to the second home in Cumbria even if you could find a empty charger.

Still I expect the rebuild of the countries finances and how people will reevaluate their own working/commuting lives will have a far larger impact on pollution that people swapping cars out.
 

nigw

Member
Messages
904
Whether or not they achieve 2030 or not, the shift massively reinforces the focus on electric investment; very few manufacturers are going to invest in an ICE sector that’s due to be legislated to closure.

The availability of current “sports” type cars will fall, but I don’t think this will prop up prices, as the demand will fall harder - as electric cars rapidly improve, ICE will become desirable to fewer and fewer people.

No point worrying about something we can’t influence. Enjoy petrol V8s now!
 

rivarama

Member
Messages
1,102
What I am still unclear about is how we recycle hundreds of millions of batteries a year when everybody has adopted EV? We send those dead battery to whatever the poorest country is at that time to “recycle” it (eg burry it in their ground)?
 

Wack61

Member
Messages
8,797
Thanks for the link Dean, I agree with your thought on our cars being a minuscule part of the problem. But the one thing I want to know, and Harris asked Graham, is about manufacture CO2 vs tail pipe emissions. Graham avoided the question, it doesn’t sit comfortably with EV users.

‘ The upshot is that – despite common claims to contrary – the embodied emissions of a car typically rival the exhaust pipe emissions over its entire lifetime.’ from the article here: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car

As far as I can understand, I cannot see how it can be perceived as eco-friendly to buy an EV. Surely buying a second hand car is the most eco-friendly thing we can do. Am I missing something?
I'd say in the long term a 25 year old car is more eco friendly than a new EV on pcp that gets replaced every 3-4 years

What will kill the ICE is supply and demand of petrol and diesel , once the demand goes the supply diminishes and the price increases

£2.50 a litre will push many to electric even if it is reluctantly

I think we're going back in time with trams coming back which will become more widespread
 

dickygrace

www.richardgracecars.co.uk
Messages
7,339
What will kill the ICE is supply and demand of petrol and diesel , once the demand goes the supply diminishes and the price increases

£2.50 a litre will push many to electric even if it is reluctantly

Market forces usually would ensure lower demand is lower prices. I’m not an economist though. The shares experts, @Froddy, @Wattie probably best to speak on this.
 

dickygrace

www.richardgracecars.co.uk
Messages
7,339
What I am still unclear about is how we recycle hundreds of millions of batteries a year when everybody has adopted EV? We send those dead battery to whatever the poorest country is at that time to “recycle” it (eg burry it in their ground)?

The video Dean linked says that we will use them in our homes.
 
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rockits

Member
Messages
9,172
Thanks for the link Dean, I agree with your thought on our cars being a minuscule part of the problem. But the one thing I want to know, and Harris asked Graham, is about manufacture CO2 vs tail pipe emissions. Graham avoided the question, it doesn’t sit comfortably with EV users.

‘ The upshot is that – despite common claims to contrary – the embodied emissions of a car typically rival the exhaust pipe emissions over its entire lifetime.’ from the article here: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car

As far as I can understand, I cannot see how it can be perceived as eco-friendly to buy an EV. Surely buying a second hand car is the most eco-friendly thing we can do. Am I missing something?

I completely agree Dicky. I am not convinced by this arguement that a new EV reduces overall emissions from end to end over the life of the car. I haven't the numbers but I suspect the point at which the EV starts to win is many many years down the lines and hundreds of thousands of miles down the line and maybe never in real terms.

I like the idea of reusing old more innefficient existing vehicles to replace the ICE that is very old and innefficient with an EV power train. That makes a lot of sense.

My Outlander PHEV is no better than a new efficient petrol or diesel in the real world so in this sense....what is the point? It doesn't achieve what it was designed and manufactured to achieve.

The problem often is exacerbated with political and busines will biased to want to produce more new cars as the debt based economy we live in only works (actually doesn't but that another story!) if people keep buying more and more new cr4p they don't really need. It is impossible to do the right thing when huge swathes of the industry is biased in this way.

Of course EV's can help reduce emissions and be cleaner than an ICE equivalent in many cases. When an existing car is very old and innefficient mostly. To replace buses, taxis, vans and all commercial traffic when they are old and get many people doing school runs and using dailies in EV's to do most of their miles makes sense. However you can't throw away perfectly good already produced cars that are quite efficient already to achieve this. That makes very little sense.

I could do 100k miles per year in an old massive 6.0ltr V12 Merc S Class with lower car tax and massively polluting with little penalty over an alternative. This is an area with many others that need to be targeted for change. Doing 200 miles a year in a Maserati V8 leaves very little in room to improve. In fact you can't. It is better to keep the Maserati V8 on the road for 100 years in this extreme case than replace with an EV.

We all know that EV's make some very compelling arguements in some cases so they should be used for that of course. However you can't shoehorn them into everything when clearly it isn't the blanket answer.

We know mining is hugely inefficient so to mine more to be able to produce more raw materials to build another new car and battery set makes no sense. Imagine how many batteries even AA/AAA and the like are produced and disposed of every day? Crazy amounts. We need to start with being more effieicnt in our uses and reduce waste. Surely that makes an immediate larger impact at little or no real cost.

This pandemic is and will do lots of bad but is also achieving lots of good by opening some people's eyes and minds to think and live differently. That has the ability to invoke immediate and long lasting change which should be embraced to all our benefits.

As always a balanced blended approach seems like the best option. However this needs to be done without political, business or money biases which is highly unlikely it seems due to simple human greed.
 

nigw

Member
Messages
904
I also think the market to retrofit EV tech into existing classic or desirable cars could become quite popular. Addresses some of the questions around whole life carbon cost, provides a cool but reliable and cheap to run car. Can’t smell the petrol or hear the exhaust note though!
 
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Zep

Moderator
Messages
9,285
The video Dean linked says that we will use them in our homes.

Exactly this, there will be a trickle down repurposing of li-ion batteries, when they can no longer provide the peak power for cars they will become home storage, or used to store solar power to feed street lights and eventually crushed and used in the road surface itself.

There will no doubt be a battery refurbishment industry where they take old car batteries and replace the cells which have failed, returning batteries to reasonable performance at a fraction of the cost.

Then there is battery chemistry, li-ion is the current favourite, but sodium-ion is hot on its heals and has a huge number of advantages like a lack of thermal runaway in short circuit conditions and no rare earth metals. But the future could well be in hydrogen, both for the gas network and for cars as it is now looking like it can be produced efficiently but the volatility / storage issues need to be resolved.

The big corporates are already quite far down the road of scoping their fleet charging infrastructure, which will make a big difference in overall emissions.

I have a hybrid and it has plenty of drawbacks including a small fuel tank meaning **** range on long journeys, absolutely horrific fragmentation of the charging network (you need something like 5 different accounts if you want to be sure to be able to plug in at any charger) but then it is toasty warm when I get in on a cold morning, it has done 60+ mpg on average over 12,000 miles, half of the miles have been electric only and it goes like a stabbed rat when you clog it.

I still, and will always, prefer my Maser, but just as horses became pets, ICE cars will become play things, and I am perfectly ok with that. The truth is an ICE car which is sold in 2030 will be on the road for at least 15 years before it is scrapped, so this isn’t the end for ICE, just the beginning for EVs.
 
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Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
Market forces usually would ensure lower demand is lower prices. I’m not an economist though. The shares experts, @Froddy, @Wattie probably best to speak on this.
I agree that lower demand should mean lower prices, but it's also right to say that lower output would lead to higher prices for the commodity.

OPEC and OPEC+ are very good at manipulating the oil price to keep it artificially high by controlling output.

What troubles me most about electrification and the drop for demand in oil is that it will de-stabilise the economies of oil-producing nations. Do we really want to de-stabilise the middle east? I don't think the western world has given this obvious danger the thought it merits!
 

Wack61

Member
Messages
8,797
I know telsa thought about a replaceable drop out battery pack where you'd drive over it and it'd be replaced fully charged in minutes

Until somebody pointed out there was nothing stopping somebody with a 5 year old tesla swapping their old battery for a brand new one then never going back until it was knackered
 

mjheathcote

Centenary Club
Messages
9,038
I also think the market to retrofit EV tech into existing classic or desirable cars could become quite popular. Addresses some of the questions around whole life carbon cost, provides a cool but reliable and cheap to run car. Can’t smell the petrol or hear the exhaust note though!

If you do, can you change the taxation class?
When people do ICE engine swops I don't think you can change the taxation class, but in that case it would most likely cost more tax!
 

CatmanV2

Member
Messages
48,798
I know telsa thought about a replaceable drop out battery pack where you'd drive over it and it'd be replaced fully charged in minutes

Until somebody pointed out there was nothing stopping somebody with a 5 year old tesla swapping their old battery for a brand new one then never going back until it was knackered


Not seeing that as a problem at all, given the 5yo Tesla probably wouldn't have the ability to drop its battery

C
 

BennyD

Sea Urchin Pate
Messages
15,006
Thanks for the link Dean, I agree with your thought on our cars being a minuscule part of the problem. But the one thing I want to know, and Harris asked Graham, is about manufacture CO2 vs tail pipe emissions. Graham avoided the question, it doesn’t sit comfortably with EV users.

‘ The upshot is that – despite common claims to contrary – the embodied emissions of a car typically rival the exhaust pipe emissions over its entire lifetime.’ from the article here: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/green-living-blog/2010/sep/23/carbon-footprint-new-car

As far as I can understand, I cannot see how it can be perceived as eco-friendly to buy an EV. Surely buying a second hand car is the most eco-friendly thing we can do. Am I missing something?

Yes, you are mate; you are not giving the response that the Government and Greenies are brainwashing us to give. However, the car companies don’t give a dead rat’s a55 about infrastructure problems as long as they get units out of the door to get back their massive investment in EV technology. The Greenies only care about what comes out of the exhaust, not what goes into making the bloody things. The government only cares about meeting environmental targets. The battery companies only care about making billions of batteries. The end user only cares about what other people think of them and the fact that, at the moment, EVs are cheaper to run. Personally, I’m at that point in my life where I couldn’t give a sh!t about all that cr4p. My next car will have a carbon footprint that can be seen from space, will cost a fortune to run, will sound epic and will make me happy every time I drive it.