Brexit Deal

[Zep]

View attachment 60194
It’s not just my opinion..,if the Fed ecb stops stealth bailouts via “QE” the whole thing will go boom very quickly.
Anyway,

The question was, as I recall, when was Italy bailed out. The answer is, it wasn’t.

We all give our opinions on this thread and they all have validity as we are all entitled to them. It isn’t just your opinion, others believe the same as you, this is also true. There are also others believe something else, this is their opinion and equally valid. But as a statement of fact, an Italian bailout, didn’t happen.

You say “Stealth Bailout” others might call it “Economic Management” but whatever you call it, what are the chances of it being stopped while it is needed? Quite slim I would suggest.

 

[Wattie]

The question was, as I recall, when was Italy bailed out. The answer is, it wasn’t.

We all give our opinions on this thread and they all have validity as we are all entitled to them. It isn’t just your opinion, others believe the same as you, this is also true. There are also others believe something else, this is their opinion and equally valid. But as a statement of fact, an Italian bailout, didn’t happen.

You say “Stealth Bailout” others might call it “Economic Management” but whatever you call it, what are the chances of it being stopped while it is needed? Quite slim I would suggest.

If it walks like a bailout and talks like a bailout then it is usually just called a b....... "economic management"
Europe (italy) is totally reliant on such, we seem to agree on that.

From 1 year ago, Italy 1 level above "junk", no more qe....."Someone has to buy these bonds!"

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ecbs-nowotny-concerned-italys-debt-level-kurier-report-091959768--sector.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20vc2VhcmNoP3E9ZWNiJUUyJTgwJTk5cytkaXN0b3J0ZWQrc3VtbWVyK2JvbmQrYnV5aW5nK2Jvb3N0cytpdGFsaWFuK2RlYnQmZm9ybT1FREdFQVImcXM9UEYmY3ZpZD0xMGRhM2NiNjkwOWE0ZWNlOTIxY2UxN2Q5YWMyMDQwYiZjYz1BVSZzZXRsYW5nPWVuLVVTJlBDPUxDVFM&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJIuaiAWI836izkQbRAl7Nxabj6e8LeiH_5xHaKgbpD47gUBnAPvOxdTwS2sQd08coJxgY_z2McbhtCsp2qSh_NszBF_mlgtKiWe_yGJKrZC3Kv2idWyPW2pbUADHKLRfZVq_33-2SgJYsyluoj33bdnnGWgeXlQojsgyW2fvGia

Enter the ECB who is "bailing out/economically managing" Italy by buying its bonds at a far lower rate of interest than the "Market" would demand for investing in something close to junk and at market interest rates Italy cannot afford to pay.

 

[JonW]

@Wattie - this is a genuine question, as I don’t understand it... How are the actions of the ECB relevant to a conversation that is meant to be about the UK’s decision to no longer be a member of the European Union?

Isn’t the Eurozone different to the EU? As evidenced by the fact the UK, and a few other of the 28 member states of the EU, are not part of the Eurozone?

 

[Wattie]

@Wattie - this is a genuine question, as I don’t understand it... How are the actions of the ECB relevant to a conversation that is meant to be about the UK’s decision to no longer be a member of the European Union?

Isn’t the Eurozone different to the EU? As evidenced by the fact the UK, and a few other of the 28 member states of the EU, are not part of the Eurozone?

Well Jon
The euro is the official currency of 19 of the 28 member states of the European Union.ie all the big ones....or perceived to be. So the 2 are inextricably linked.

The UK is currently extremely reliant on the European arena for trade.....we have very little diversification from it....as we’re prevented from other trade arrangements by and large.

The Euro (of which 19 of the largest in the EU are part) is a flawed currency with most members tied to an exchange rate that does not suit their economic circumstances. Ie They cannot compete and sell their goods and services competitively within it.Hence the constant economic turmoil as one country after another gets into economic difficulties and requires bailing out/economic assistance, which requires more and more ECB intervention and rule breaking to do what’s required. Debts are piling up and nothing is solved......all they’re doing now ie considering Qe and lowering rates is exactly what didn’t work before.....but they said it had/would.

What’s really required is a total structural reform of the Euro.....not pretend and extend.

One day the entire euro project will go boom as debts/ social issues will come home to roost, taking down the Euro and any other economies closely tied with it.....ie the EU. If the ECB didn’t intervene now you would see it unravel very very quickly. Countries in the Euro are 100% reliant on ECB intervention.

If the UK is as closely tied/ dependent through trade as we are now, with little diversification we will be clobbered too.

 

[JonW]

Thanks.

Your point about needing to have other trade agreements, and us currently being prevented from having them, is an interesting one. Does EU membership actually prevent us from entering into other trade agreements?

I can see that the Euro as a currency has its problems, due to different economic conditions amongst many of the participants. This proves that the decision by the UK to not join the Eurozone was a really good decision.

I can also see that the challenges with the Euro are interwoven with the political decisions made by the members of the Eurozone, as they, like all governments, are duty bound to try and do what they believe to be in the national interest for their country and their people.

However, what I don’t really understand is why people don’t recognise that the two things are different and talk about decisions made by the ECB as though they were made by the EU.

I also don’t see how our reliance on the European arena for trade is going to change whether we are a member of the EU or not. The physical reality is that we are geographically part of Europe, and we are always going to have to trade (a lot) with our neighbours. As such, if the Euro economies go boom, then the UK will be impacted whether we are a member of the EU or not. Couldn’t it be argued that if we are not part of the EU we will be impacted more, as it’s natural for people to want to protect their own?

I’m not having a go at you (or any one else) in any of the above, but am trying to understand. I will admit that in the past I’ve dismissed comments by people who are pro-Brexit talking about the Euro as being misguided, irrelevant to the issue, and just proving that they are confused about what they actually voted for...

 

[doodlebug]

Well Jon
The euro is the official currency of 19 of the 28 member states of the European Union.ie all the big ones....or perceived to be. So the 2 are inextricably linked.

The UK is currently extremely reliant on the European arena for trade.....we have very little diversification from it....as we’re prevented from other trade arrangements by and large.

The Euro (of which 19 of the largest in the EU are part) is a flawed currency with most members tied to an exchange rate that does not suit their economic circumstances. Ie They cannot compete and sell their goods and services competitively within it.Hence the constant economic turmoil as one country after another gets into economic difficulties and requires bailing out/economic assistance, which requires more and more ECB intervention and rule breaking to do what’s required. Debts are piling up and nothing is solved......all they’re doing now ie considering Qe and lowering rates is exactly what didn’t work before.....but they said it had/would.

What’s really required is a total structural reform of the Euro.....not pretend and extend.

One day the entire euro project will go boom as debts/ social issues will come home to roost, taking down the Euro and any other economies closely tied with it.....ie the EU. If the ECB didn’t intervene now you would see it unravel very very quickly. Countries in the Euro are 100% reliant on ECB intervention.

If the UK is as closely tied/ dependent through trade as we are now, with little diversification we will be clobbered too.

Isn't the UK one of the 'Big Ones' ? The last time I bought something in the UK I paid in GBP.

The European Union (EU) has about 40 free trade deals, covering more than 70 non-EU countries. Last year, the EU accounted for 46% of UK exports. 11% of total UK trade goes to those countries outside of the EU with which the EU has trade deals in place.

In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the UK would suddenly lose tariff-free access to the EU and those markets with an EU trade deal unless independent deals can be made. Fortunately, the UK has managed to secure continuity deals with 38 of those 70 countries. Of those deals, only Switzerland is in the top 10 of our existing trading partners.

 

[Zep]

If it walks like a bailout and talks like a bailout then it is usually just called a b....... "economic management"
Europe (italy) is totally reliant on such, we seem to agree on that.

From 1 year ago, Italy 1 level above "junk", no more qe....."Someone has to buy these bonds!"

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ecbs-nowotny-concerned-italys-debt-level-kurier-report-091959768--sector.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20vc2VhcmNoP3E9ZWNiJUUyJTgwJTk5cytkaXN0b3J0ZWQrc3VtbWVyK2JvbmQrYnV5aW5nK2Jvb3N0cytpdGFsaWFuK2RlYnQmZm9ybT1FREdFQVImcXM9UEYmY3ZpZD0xMGRhM2NiNjkwOWE0ZWNlOTIxY2UxN2Q5YWMyMDQwYiZjYz1BVSZzZXRsYW5nPWVuLVVTJlBDPUxDVFM&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJIuaiAWI836izkQbRAl7Nxabj6e8LeiH_5xHaKgbpD47gUBnAPvOxdTwS2sQd08coJxgY_z2McbhtCsp2qSh_NszBF_mlgtKiWe_yGJKrZC3Kv2idWyPW2pbUADHKLRfZVq_33-2SgJYsyluoj33bdnnGWgeXlQojsgyW2fvGia

Enter the ECB who is "bailing out/economically managing" Italy by buying its bonds at a far lower rate of interest than the "Market" would demand for investing in something close to junk and at market interest rates Italy cannot afford to pay.

I can still see the difference between billions in emergency loans and buying bonds. So let’s agree to disagree.

 

[Wattie]

To try to answer both we do need to continue to trade with the Eu (post Brexit if it happens) as that is where we currentky do a lot of business but we also need to diversify away from it given its shortcomings. One of the problems of being in the Eu is we can’t run off and do trade deals elsewhere Willy nilly. Ie the US for all lovers of chook

 

[Wack61]

Interesting post on facebook

seems like there's not much british industry left , they've made sure they've got it all

Borrowed from Steve Major
Cadbury moved factory to Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved to Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover has recently agreed to build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, the same company who have trashed our steel works and emptied the workers pension funds. Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant. British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales
. Dyson gone to Malaysia, with an EU loan.
Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone to Poland with EU grant, once employed 1,200. M&S manufacturing gone to far east with EU loan. Hornby models gone. In fact all toys and models now gone from UK along with the patents all with with EU grants.
Gillette gone to eastern Europe with EU grant. Texas Instruments Greenock gone to Germany with EU grant.
Indesit at Bodelwyddan Wales gone with EU grant. Sekisui Alveo said production at its Merthyr Tydfil Industrial Park foam plant will relocate production to Roermond in the Netherlands, with EU funding. Hoover Merthyr factory moved out of UK to Czech Republic and the Far East by Italian company Candy with EU backing.
ICI integration into Holland’s AkzoNobel with EU bank loan and within days of the merger, several factories in the UK, were closed, eliminating 3,500 jobs
Boots sold to Italians Stefano Pessina who have based their HQ in Switzerland to avoid tax to the tune of £80 million a year, using an EU loan for the purchase.
JDS Uniphase run by two Dutch men, bought up companies in the UK with £20 million in EU 'regeneration' grants, created a pollution nightmare and just closed it all down leaving 1,200 out of work and an environmental clean-up paid for by the UK tax-payer. They also raided the pension fund and drained it dry.
UK airports are owned by a Spanish company. Scottish Power is owned by a Spanish company. Most London buses are run by Spanish and German companies.
The Hinkley Point C nuclear power station to be built by French company EDF, part owned by the French government, using cheap Chinese steel that has catastrophically failed in other nuclear installations. Now EDF say the costs will be double or more and it will be very late even if it does come online.
Swindon was once our producer of rail locomotives and rolling stock. Not any more, it's Bombardier in Derby and due to their losses in the aviation market, that could see the end of the British railways manufacturing altogether even though Bombardier had EU grants to keep Derby going which they diverted to their loss-making aviation side in Canada.
39% of British invention patents have been passed to foreign companies, many of them in the EU The Mini cars that Cameron stood in front of as an example of British engineering, are built by BMW mostly in Holland and Austria. His campaign bus was made in Germany even though we have Plaxton, Optare, Bluebird, Dennis etc., in the UK. The bicycle for the Greens was made in the far east, not by Raleigh UK but then they are probably going to move to the Netherlands too as they have said recently. Anyone who thinks the EU is good for British industry or any other business simply hasn't paid attention to what has been systematically asset-stripped from the UK. Name me one major technology company still running in the UK, I used to contract out to many, then the work just dried up as they were sold off to companies from France, Germany, Holland, Belgium, etc., and now we don't even teach electronic technology for technicians any more, due to EU regulations. I haven't detailed our non-existent fishing industry the EU paid to destroy, nor the farmers being paid NOT to produce food they could sell for more than they get paid to do nothing, don't even go there. I haven't mentioned what it costs us to be asset-stripped like this, nor have I mentioned immigration, nor the risk to our security if control of our armed forces is passed to Brussels or Germany. Find something that's gone the other way, I've looked and I just can't. If you think the EU is a good idea, 1/ You haven't read the party manifesto of The European Peoples' Party. 2/ You haven't had to deal with EU petty bureaucracy tearing your business down. 3/ You don't think it matters. OUT OF EUROPE we need to be out of it

 

[Wattie]

I can still see the difference between billions in emergency loans and buying bonds. So let’s agree to disagree.

Ok but the figures involved here aren’t chicken feed.
2019 alone- Italy expects to issue 250-260 billion euros ($281-$293 billion) worth of medium-to-long-term debt. The ECBwill absorb around 14 percent of Italy'sgross bond issuance in 2019,....,,,,,,watch for that to increase under the goalposts moving.

By way of comparison “In May 2010 Greece received the firsttranche of the bailout loans totaling €20bn. Of this total, 5.5 billion came from the IMF and 14.5 billion of Euro states.”

 

[doodlebug]

To try to answer both we do need to continue to trade with the Eu (post Brexit if it happens) as that is where we currentky do a lot of business but we also need to diversify away from it given its shortcomings. One of the problems of being in the Eu is we can’t run off and do trade deals elsewhere Willy nilly. Ie the US for all lovers of chook

But as an entity, I'm sure the EU is in a much stronger bargaining position to get a trade deal than the UK will be when it's out of the EU. Witness the current bunch of eejits trying to organise a party in a brewery, let alone get trade deals that Dr. Fox promised us would be quick and easy.

As for the US and their anti-dumping policies, do you really think this would work both ways when they try and lumber us with there goods?

 

[JonW]

To try to answer both we do need to continue to trade with the Eu (post Brexit if it happens) as that is where we currentky do a lot of business but we also need to diversify away from it given its shortcomings. One of the problems of being in the Eu is we can’t run off and do trade deals elsewhere Willy nilly. Ie the US for all lovers of chook

But the EU rules of membership don’t prevent any member state from trading outside the EU. This is proven by the fact that Germany is China’s largest trading partner... It’s also evidenced by the fact that France can, and does, do more trade with the US than the UK does.

Currently, it’s clearly true that the vast majority of our trade is with the EU or with the 64 third countries that have trade agreements with it. However, the UK also trades with just 24 countries on the basis of WTO rules alone, and I don’t see how whether we are a member of the European Union or not will change this.

I also think it’s almost impossible that doing trade deals with places like the US and Australia could ever make up for the trade that may be lost (or go up in price) if we leave the EU without a deal... I read somewhere that if we signed trade agreements with all these Commonwealth countries and the US, our GDP would grow by just 0.7% a year compared to the 5% annually we would lose from leaving the single market....

 

[Wattie]

But as an entity, I'm sure the EU is in a much stronger bargaining position to get a trade deal than the UK will be when it's out of the EU. Witness the current bunch of eejits trying to organise a party in a brewery, let alone get trade deals that Dr. Fox promised us would be quick and easy.

As for the US and their anti-dumping policies, do you really think this would work both ways when they try and lumber us with there goods?

100% correct as our former pm/mp’s have totally fecked our position. Uk is now a laughing stock. Look what happened with that Iranian tanker.-no respect and no wonder.
Tbh it’s probably best we just stay in now. Pains me to say it but the Uk has proven itself to be a spineless, submissive, pathetic excuse for a supposed major power.

 

[Scaf]

The most depressing thing about this thread (yes it is depressing) is that despite the fact that all countries in the eurozone and EU are democracies, we can do naff all about influencing the outcome.
I am going to nip out and wash the GTS at least I will be in control of that and can influence the result

 

[jonny]

it’s probably best we just stay in now

 

[Wattie]

The most depressing thing about this thread (yes it is depressing) is that despite the fact that all countries in the eurozone and EU are democracies, we can do naff all about influencing the outcome.
I am going to nip out and wash the GTS at least I will be in control of that and can influence the result

Pretend democracies and you can add the Uk to that list.wish I still had a gts to wash.

 

[Wattie]

Well they’re (Mp’s) talking about bringing Mays deal back now.
wtf?
We should remain rather than accept that utter betrayal.

 

[Wattie]

Another thought,
I feel sorry for all those immigrants who have just swam the channel, to escape the Eu/France.
On 31st Oct, they might have to swim back.

 

[MaserCoupe]

Tbh it’s probably best we just stay in now.

Welcome to the light brother...I’m actually choked with emotion right now in reading this from you Wattie. Brexit has certainly put us all through the ringer.

It’s amazing how some have managed to pitch people against each other, against our own institutions, then try to pave a way to making people doubt the impartiality/erode the trust of our very own judiciary systems, our checks and balances.

How in the world have we become a society that reads, sometimes accepts and then normalises headlines of “Traitors”, “enemies of the people”, “Political Elites” etc directly at those who hold an executive to account?
Then in the process managing to convince some to act against their own interest. It’s a clusterf... of a situation.

Dominic Cummings has a lot to answer for and considering he is the architect, I’m disgusted to also learn that with all his hypocrisy this bloke claims that leaving the EU allows the UK to spend an extra 350million a week on the NHS. He then goes on to clarify the claim by explaining “the Treasury gross figure is slightly more than 350 million of which we get back roughly half, though some of this is spent in absurd ways like subsidies for very rich landowners to do stupid things“. Hmmmh and this is the same guy who co owns a farm with his parents that received 235K in EU farming subsidies and positions himself as the person who wants to “demolish elites”.

I wonder if he’ll stick around to pick up the pieces.......

But anyway I’m genuinely glad to read that you honestly think it’s better that we stay in. I’m now convinced given by your example and sure that you are not alone that some people have changed their minds...I wonder if we will be afforded the route to express as much.

 

[philw696]