Brexit Deal

GeoffCapes

Member
Messages
14,000
Oh my God, recessions are part of a NORMAL business cycle! They get rid of chaff and things rebuild.

I agree, recession is a part of the business cycle.

But this is a single event recession. These are almost unheard of. 2 months to potentially fall into recession as opposed to a cycle which normally takes years.
 

Wanderer

Member
Messages
5,791
The point is that it will take only 2 months to fall into recession.

1 in 3 chance with a deal Brexit. 2 in 3 chance of no recession as you say. But that is the optimistic view.

The thing is, recessions normally take years to develop, not a single event, (like leaving the EU).
With on a 66.6% chance of avoiding recession (with a deal) what you you do as a business? Scale back and prepare for the worst? or carry on a normal.
As those who carry on as normal are the ones who go bust in a recession.

With the Government all but coming out and saying "we're leaving with no deal" it looks like we're leaving with no deal. End of.

I will be the first one to hold my hands up and say "I was wrong" if we prosper like never before if we leave with a no deal Brexit however, I feel that is rather unlikely.
It will be the rich that prosper, not the ordinary man on the street.
 

zagatoes30

Member
Messages
21,028
Well after just about moving to Ireland my boss takes a new job in Melbourne and the first point of our weekly 1-2-1 is do you fancy coming to Melbourne with me for 2 years.

The conversation with the wife ended like this - "So you have spent 6 years working away and now have finally moved us all to the same house in another country. Now you think you can go working away in yet another country for a couple of years !! - Which bit of F**K OFF is hard for you to understand"

I took that as a maybe ;)
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
With regards emigration it took me a year to get sorted for New Zealand and that was in 2014.
I have permanent residency for there off the back of my skill set.
One thing to bear in mind is age as you could be too old.
Money talks as always you can buy your way in.
Remember that in Nz banks, not a single dollar comes under a bank protection scheme,
Until it’s introduced this year.....
Take a look at NZ house prices.......
 

philw696

Member
Messages
25,623
Remember that in Nz banks, not a single dollar comes under a bank protection scheme,
Until it’s introduced this year.....
Take a look at NZ house prices.......
The quality of the housing on the whole is poor quality for crazy money.
Prices pushed up by the Chinese overseas buyers.
You can't buy in the normal sense as they go the auction route so sold to the highest bidder.
It was crazy in Auckland but in my time there it was happening in most of the country.
People speculating and just trying to get rich quick.
Glad to be living in France now.
I thought I had the dream there but now in France I know I do.
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
The quality of the housing on the whole is poor quality for crazy money.
Prices pushed up by the Chinese overseas buyers.
You can't buy in the normal sense as they go the auction route so sold to the highest bidder.
It was crazy in Auckland but in my time there it was happening in most of the country.
People speculating and just trying to get rich quick.
Glad to be living in France now.
I thought I had the dream there but now in France I know I do.
Yet the bank of NZ reckon 90% of deposit holders are covered by their new scheme!
$65000 or so, when house price basics are $1,000,000.
Listen, I know I sound like I’m mental but to each and every person on this forum.
Ffs, prepare cos this is going to go wrong on a scale u can’t believe.
 

MaserCoupe

Member
Messages
564
“Listen, I know I sound like I’m mental but to each and every person on this forum.
Ffs, prepare cos this is going to go wrong on a scale u can’t believe.”

Wattie I never thought I’d live to see the day where I’d read this from you?!?! Blimey I am shocked, stunned and impressed!o_O:lol:
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
“Listen, I know I sound like I’m mental but to each and every person on this forum.
Ffs, prepare cos this is going to go wrong on a scale u can’t believe.”

Wattie I never thought I’d live to see the day where I’d read this from you?!?! Blimey I am shocked, stunned and impressed!o_O:lol:
Excellent, so are you prepared?
 

MaserCoupe

Member
Messages
564
Excellent, so are you prepared?
Yep! As best as anyone could be! Passport ready and bang up to date! Battening down the hatches and getting ready to run.:D “Ponzi” Europe here I come......if it’s good enough for Brexiteers JRM and his money, Lawson and Lord Lilley to live then it’s good enough for me. :D
 

rockits

Member
Messages
9,180
I've been beavering away preparing to be in the best position I can be for many years armageddon or not.

If it comes I'm more ready than your average Joe for sure. Opportunities will arise for those in this position to benefit out of the impending sh1t storm. I've been banking on this for years but it hasn't been delivered yet. I'm not 100% ready or where I want to be but not in too bad a place.

It has to come at some point as the world can't continue as it has been.
 

rockits

Member
Messages
9,180
I've been beavering away preparing to be in the best position I can be for many years armageddon or not.

If it comes I'm more ready than your average Joe for sure. Opportunities will arise for those in this position to benefit out of the impending sh1t storm. I've been banking on this for years but it hasn't been delivered yet. I'm not 100% ready or where I want to be but not in too bad a place.

It has to come at some point as the world can't continue as it has been.
 

Swedish Paul

Member
Messages
1,811
To be fair, there has been a huge correction coming for a long time. It’s not only brexit that will probably bring this about. There’s also the us/China spat, the Japan/Korea spat. The EU Euro issues.

Inflation/interest rates have been kept artificially low. Instead of gold, it might be more prudent to clear your debts instead as it should be make riding any tsunamis a little easier.