Brexit Deal

[GeoffCapes]

We're not using their currency. In or out if the Eu goes down then we do as well.

Whilst we are in the EU we don't have a massive recession to deal with. Out of the EU we will have a massive recession.
And then if/when the EU does go down that will just be made worse.

 

[2b1ask1]

Why will we have a massive recession Mark?

I think you are again missing the point being made that the € is being very artificially maintained in a way that is clearly irresponsible and dangerous. When it goes tits up (not if) the £ will likely be seen as a far safer Currency and many will be buying it. Possibly gold but there is unlikely to be much left in it by then as Wattie will have bought it all up! I can see that it won’t do much against the $ but that is being manipulated elsewhere anyway.

 

[philw696]

I've just been told this by a hardened brexit voter.
Hears how the talk went. I was talking to him about how he and his wife travel all over Europe in there camper van for most of the year. I pointed out that the 90 days in 180 day rule will likely be enforced after brexit.
Hear is the answer he gave me.
No you've got that all wrong he said because non of those rules apply to the English!

Can anyone top that?

 

[doodlebug]

Why will we have a massive recession Mark?

I think you are again missing the point being made that the € is being very artificially maintained in a way that is clearly irresponsible and dangerous. When it goes tits up (not if) the £ will likely be seen as a far safer Currency and many will be buying it. Possibly gold but there is unlikely to be much left in it by then as Wattie will have bought it all up! I can see that it won’t do much against the $ but that is being manipulated elsewhere anyway.

If the £ will be seen as the far safer currency in the event of the € crashing, surely it will be the same whether we are in the EU or not? It's certainly not seen as a safe currency now.

 

[philw696]

You have all missed the point.
Its Gold Sovereigns you need and some Guinea's now.

 

[GeoffCapes]

Why will we have a massive recession Mark?

I think you are again missing the point being made that the € is being very artificially maintained in a way that is clearly irresponsible and dangerous. When it goes tits up (not if) the £ will likely be seen as a far safer Currency and many will be buying it. Possibly gold but there is unlikely to be much left in it by then as Wattie will have bought it all up! I can see that it won’t do much against the $ but that is being manipulated elsewhere anyway.

Because we will have no trade agreements in place. Zero.
All this WTO ******** is exactly that. ********. No one uses the WTO.
Then you have the crashing pound. With the pound worth less, everything will cost more. As the UK are a net importer most of what we buy will go up in cost.

"But UK products will be cheaper so people will buy more of them"
But the raw material we use in those products come from outside the UK, so our products will actually cost more to make, which means margins will shrink which means prices will go up and we will be uncompetitive.

"But that's ok" I hear you say "will will just use countries to supply us who are outside of the EU".
Great except for we will then have to do new trade deals with them as all previous trade deals with those countries will be deals done as part of the EU. Not the Uk as a single nation.

All this takes time. And as we all know. Time is money.

It's not rocket science.

This is what has been said by the worlds economists who have warned against a no deal Brexit at all costs.

 

[GeoffCapes]

The Bank of England have just said the same.

Even with a smooth Brexit. Ie a deal. We will still have a 1 in 3 chance of a Recession by 2020. And that was the optimistic view.

So basically it will take 2 months for us to fall into recession on leaving the EU.

Anyone still think it’s a good idea?

 

[D Walker]

Has there been a recession since the EU referendum? – Full Fact

The UK economy has continued to grow since the UK voted to leave the EU.

fullfact.org

Just for some balance, I’m politically inept so no sides taken, but I remembered something about immediate doom should the vote go one way or t’other

 

[JonW]

This sums up how I now feel about Brexit and trying to discuss it rationally... I’m embarrassed to admit I’ve thrown in the towel and have genuinely got to the point where we’re considering whether as a family we should emigrate

 

[Wattie]

I've just been told this by a hardened brexit voter.
Hears how the talk went. I was talking to him about how he and his wife travel all over Europe in there camper van for most of the year. I pointed out that the 90 days in 180 day rule will likely be enforced after brexit.
Hear is the answer he gave me.
No you've got that all wrong he said because non of those rules apply to the English!

Can anyone top that?

Does it apply to Scots?

 

[Wattie]

You have all missed the point.
Its Gold Sovereigns you need and some Guinea's now.

Now at all time highs in GBP!!!

 

[conaero]

Where would you go Jon?

With the impending collapse of Europe, it’s looking safer to go further afield. Genuinely interested. Canada has always been a safe bet.

 

[Wattie]

The Bank of England have just said the same.

Even with a smooth Brexit. Ie a deal. We will still have a 1 in 3 chance of a Recession by 2020. And that was the optimistic view.

So basically it will take 2 months for us to fall into recession on leaving the EU.

Anyone still think it’s a good idea?

Oh my God, recessions are part of a NORMAL business cycle! They get rid of chaff and things rebuild.

Having to bailout an entire continent every 9 months or so via money printing and other bizarre central bank plans ie LTRO and negative interest rates is not normal especially when after nearly 9 yerars of doing it that entire continent is absolutely no better than it was before because there is no evidence AT ALL that it addresses the structural problems and indeed the problems are in fact worse....rising debts etc.

Oh, by the way, the US, China, Japan and Europe are already in recession.....you're just not being told that.

 

[Wattie]

This sums up how I now feel about Brexit and trying to discuss it rationally... I’m embarrassed to admit I’ve thrown in the towel and have genuinely got to the point where we’re considering whether as a family we should emigrate

View attachment 58844

Can I suggest Australia......think of all the wonderful discussions we could have over a wine or two

 

[Wattie]

Heres a little suggestion.
Many of you probably have SIPPS, SSAS's pension plans.
If you have not be contacted by your advisor re Brexit over the last year or so with a view to dumping £ I'd be picking up the phone and asking why?
The above often allow investment in $, £, etc as well as gold, gold miners (which turbo charge returns).
The next few months are pretty cut and dry with whats going to happen......

 

[Wattie]

Has there been a recession since the EU referendum? – Full Fact

The UK economy has continued to grow since the UK voted to leave the EU.

fullfact.org

Just for some balance, I’m politically inept so no sides taken, but I remembered something about immediate doom should the vote go one way or t’other

Yes, Europe is in one.

 

[Boris J]

Apparently the latest bi-election is a win for remainers.



However if you add up
Remainer votes, liberal and labour.=15,506

Leavers, cons, brexit, UKIP = 15,974
(leave out UKIP = 15,732)
Add in the monster raving looney which all leavers obviously are +334 = 16,308 total.

Clearly leaving is most popular and an endorsement of my “no deal” strategy.

 

[Wattie]

“Labour has produced analysis claiming a no-deal Brexit will cost families an extra £220 next year as a result of rising food price”.

So 60p a day.

Oh dear, better call it off then.....I can already see the panic in the streets.

 

[philw696]

With regards emigration it took me a year to get sorted for New Zealand and that was in 2014.
I have permanent residency for there off the back of my skill set.
One thing to bear in mind is age as you could be too old.
Money talks as always you can buy your way in.

 

[2b1ask1]

The Bank of England have just said the same.

Even with a smooth Brexit. Ie a deal. We will still have a 1 in 3 chance of a Recession by 2020. And that was the optimistic view.

So basically it will take 2 months for us to fall into recession on leaving the EU.

Anyone still think it’s a good idea?

Oh dear... a fear campaign headline 1:3 chance of a recession!

Shock horror so a 2:3 chance of no recession by their own project fear figures doesn’t quite have the same fear factor Mark.

 

[GeoffCapes]

Oh dear... a fear campaign headline 1:3 chance of a recession!

Shock horror so a 2:3 chance of no recession by their own project fear figures doesn’t quite have the same fear factor Mark.

The point is that it will take only 2 months to fall into recession.

1 in 3 chance with a deal Brexit. 2 in 3 chance of no recession as you say. But that is the optimistic view.

The thing is, recessions normally take years to develop, not a single event, (like leaving the EU).
With on a 66.6% chance of avoiding recession (with a deal) what you you do as a business? Scale back and prepare for the worst? or carry on a normal.
As those who carry on as normal are the ones who go bust in a recession.

With the Government all but coming out and saying "we're leaving with no deal" it looks like we're leaving with no deal. End of.

I will be the first one to hold my hands up and say "I was wrong" if we prosper like never before if we leave with a no deal Brexit however, I feel that is rather unlikely.