Shares to watch

[Delmonte]

I’ll start.
My expectations are
Oil, no demand as the economy slows. bailed out. Struggles for years.....manipulated as the US has the petro-dollar, possible wars to inflate price upwards.

Property, huge devaluations as millions of mortgages default as millions, globally, face unemployment. No loans available as lending standards tighten......who’s gonna lend to bankrupt people, certainly not bankrupt banks! Banks will only endorse programmes backed by govts as they will be the guarantors....everything else, poof, gone in a puff of smoke.

Property is one massive debt based, over inflated bubble. It has just popped.

Gold. Miners should do well if they can maintain production successfully...depends if they can staff operations.....isolation/covid risks. Price goes up....their shares go up if they are producing!

Silver worth a punt as should follow suit. Silver is possibly the most undervalued safety play on the planet.

Gold- my thoughts are well documented. Imperative you own physical.

Hope others chip in to assist you with their thoughts.

The important thing here is that stock markets are manipulated and do not reflect economic reality....the US Ponzi, will determine everything. The Fed are clueless and nothing they can do, money print, will change the economic reality and debt default tsunami of what is about to go down.

The global Ponzi is out of cash.....

So on property, you expect a crash but at the same time we will get hyperinflation? Surely that would effectively remove property debt - (you have a big mortgage that quickly becomes a very small mortgage?)
Meanwhile residential rents increase along with inflation fuelling yield ratio from rental property? Or do rents fall, again because tenants can't pay them, don't have jobs, so rent is also excluded from inflation?

I'm confused....

 

[rockits]

It is confusing and complex and nobody really know how it will play out.

There are a ton of analysts out there paid very well to predict and model stuff. I'm not sure they get it right more than 50% of the time so sometimes a coin toss is not bad odds.

Nobody expected Trump to get in!

I think it is partly a case to not over expose to one particular thing that could ruin you. A kin to only having 10% if your total fund invested in one stock. Or of course all eggs in one basket. It could work out really well or really badly. Best to have some alternatives and hedges to spread the load/risk.

It depends of the powers that be can manfucturer new complex ways to prop up the known imbalances and issues. If they can it continues.....if the can to an extent it will soften the fall. If they cant.....well who knows how hard it could be.

I don't see how the gravy train can possibly continue. It only needs one catalyst like we have seen from Covid-19 and the effects can be immense and fast.

Most of the world had choices to limit the economic effect of Covid-19 but we choose not to excercise many of the options.

If it plays out.with to a fair depression it will change the way we live for sure. How? Goodness only knows.

If you own assets and cash/investments and they are all devalued by half due to various things that is real and possible. Will it happen? I'm not so sure yet.

If financial armageddon could just wait until I've built a new house and sold the old one that would be grand as I'd personally be less bothered if it all halved!

 

[AT3200AC]

Morning all,

I have been logging onto this thread daily for 3 months and have enjoyed all of the contributions so thank you all.

I think you all underestimate the underlying resilience of people and their desire to keep going. A lot of this Armageddon prophecy simply wont play out. I agree with Wattie on Gold price rises as more liquidity will inevitably flow into gold and gold related stocks. I think this shock to the markets will accelerate weak companies decline and we will lose a few household names. There will also be new names to replace them.

i work UK property. Over 20 million households and most are fully owned long term by secured occupiers. A drop in prices in the very short term is possible but not probable in my view. Banks haven’t been defaulting customers since the last recession and won’t start now.

The one are of modern life I am less sure about is leisure and travel. Here we could see a shift away from air travel and clearly 2020 mass gatherings are out. So airline stocks are to avoided, uk holiday sector in the summer will be busy as people stay local and we will all be pay per view on football for a while.

This could of corse be the end of the world in which case I am clearly not prepared. But then who wants to be the last survivor in a zombie apocalpse.

Good luck. AT.

 

[daverichardson]

One
Pay off all debt asap (including mortgages)
Two
Research and invest in whatever you are comfortable with
Three
Keep a cash bundle

 

[Wattie]

Hy

So on property, you expect a crash but at the same time we will get hyperinflation? Surely that would effectively remove property debt - (you have a big mortgage that quickly becomes a very small mortgage?)
Meanwhile residential rents increase along with inflation fuelling yield ratio from rental property? Or do rents fall, again because tenants can't pay them, don't have jobs, so rent is also excluded from inflation?

I'm confused....

I expect property values will collapse as Many borrowers will default.... the debt tsunami will result in a collapse of prices and loan defaults ie 1 million loan, current value 500k, no job, no repayments, boom goes the market.
We are going to see massive de-leverage. Think Airbnb owners, multiple properties, all mortgaged, massive loans, now no renters, totally screwed. Boom.
Renters are Probably gonna get bailed out or be given some sort of forgiveness.
Debtors are always rewarded at the expense of savers.
Poor renters, don’t throw them out on the streets nasty landlords, give them relief etc it’s happening now....look at what’s going on re rent relief etc
Hyperinflation comes at the end When “everyone gets bailed out” - property has collapsed long before the inflation kicks in.

 

[Wattie]

One
Pay off all debt asap (including mortgages)
Two
Research and invest in whatever you are comfortable with
Three
Keep a cash bundle

I’m in agreement with 2/3. I reckon a little debt is good.... it might be forgiven.

 

[rockits]

I agree....I'm not in any rush to pay off a current mortgage at low to zero interest rates. In fact the new house will mean I would increase this further.

Maybe keeping the old house to rent with a massive mortgage would be a better play. Keep the new house mortgage free and I would have no worry what the value would be. It will be more than the build cost.

I think it would be better to have no other debts/loans though and a bit of cash to one side.

 

[rockits]

I wonder what the average household owner owned property percentage of LTV is? Anything higher than 50% would be in negative equity risk. Although not an issue if you aren't moving anywhere.

 

[Delmonte]

One
Pay off all debt asap (including mortgages)
Two
Research and invest in whatever you are comfortable with
Three
Keep a cash bundle

Well, I have no debt, bar 2 mortgages, one residential one BTL, both more than 50% paid off at pre covid values. I have no regular commitments hardly at all, no car leases etc, and crucially, no kids. Bailed out of buying a second BTL at start of lockdown...

I have a cash bundle, its that I am concerned for if we get big inflation... Hence getting into gold a bit, and looking at other investments... I suppose the puzzle I'm grappling with is the prospect of real inflation coupled with falling value of equities or hard assets like property... Stagflation I guess...

 

[Delmonte]

I wonder what the average household owner owned property percentage of LTV is? Anything higher than 50% would be in negative equity risk. Although not an issue if you aren't moving anywhere.

For anyone in UK under 40 I would imagine the ltv is immense... Speaking to younger folk biying first time the numbers are terrifying, especially if you compare to their wages....

 

[Wattie]

Well, I have no debt, bar 2 mortgages, one residential one BTL, both more than 50% paid off at pre covid values. I have no regular commitments hardly at all, no car leases etc, and crucially, no kids. Bailed out of buying a second BTL at start of lockdown...

I have a cash bundle, its that I am concerned for if we get big inflation... Hence getting into gold a bit, and looking at other investments... I suppose the puzzle I'm grappling with is the prospect of real inflation coupled with falling value of equities or hard assets like property... Stagflation I guess...

Where do you live?

 

[Delmonte]

Where do you live?

Leeds, England

 

[Contigo]

I'm guessing the North! Where houses are giveaway cheap

 

[Contigo]

Well last week was a belter for me. ODX surged on and so did AVCT. These are turning out to be two great shares with lots more to come. I tipped UEX on Friday at 42p after they neither confirmed nor denied an offer from Welleseley at 76.9p. Previous offer of 72p and Barclays extending their investment to 8%. Small free float coupled with a great opportunity meant it went to 52p by end of play with a large £52k investment over the ask. I'm expecting a nice gap up to 60p on Monday.

I'm now investing into physical Gold and Silver from Coininvest.

 

[Wattie]

Leeds, England

Cool, clearly doing well, aware of the current potential pitfalls and also that you are leveraged to the risk.
Well done for not going for that extra btl. Good move imo.

 

[Contigo]

I think house prices could well be decimated in the next few months.

 

[lozcb]

Diamonds ...............if you know your stuff buy rough uncut , as good a hedge as gold will be

 

[Contigo]

@lozcb you know anything about KOD (Kodal Minerals) who are a Lithium miner in Mali? SP has been decimated to 0.029p in recent times.

 

[rockits]

Well, I have no debt, bar 2 mortgages, one residential one BTL, both more than 50% paid off at pre covid values. I have no regular commitments hardly at all, no car leases etc, and crucially, no kids. Bailed out of buying a second BTL at start of lockdown...

I have a cash bundle, its that I am concerned for if we get big inflation... Hence getting into gold a bit, and looking at other investments... I suppose the puzzle I'm grappling with is the prospect of real inflation coupled with falling value of equities or hard assets like property... Stagflation I guess...

You seem pretty well placed compared to most. I'm sure we could all make improvements but depends what they need to be......jury is out for me at the moment.

No solid decisions either way from me at the moment as I'm really not sure how this will play out. There will be immense political and a majority will to fight against a depression and further. That is an immense tide to swim against. However if the tide turns.....wow it will be thick and fast.

 

[rockits]

For anyone in UK under 40 I would imagine the ltv is immense... Speaking to younger folk biying first time the numbers are terrifying, especially if you compare to their wages....

This is my fear as this is where the earliest effects will be felt. The domino effect increases in ververity as they start to tumble.

As we know from the US property crash defaulting is not a great option so I would expect other avenues to be utilised. What they will be....I don't know.

We will see immediate issues as I am hearing already with rents not being paid. Many have no savings and have been going backwards every month for ages anyway. Not a great place to be.

We have know this for years and the govt have chosen to do little about it as they need these guys to spend. Many years of many bad decisions and poor fundamentals by our govt cannot surely play out well.