Shares to watch

[rockits]

Seems like at some point when the debt and borrowing merry go round slows down then stops the realisation might hit home for some. At some point sometime it must fall down. When the borrower tries to borrow and the lender has to borrow to lend. Then that lender needs to borrow to lend but their lender hasn't got any money it stops. Surely that is in actual real danger of happening as global options close in availability. Or the rates are so high it becomes crazy painful.

Again cash is king......people with cash do well regardless of the economy state. If it is booming they win.......crashing they win.....in between they win. Therefore I will always try to keep a certain amount of liquidity to reduce my expose to pain. Again I'm just a simple man with simple means and understanding. Maybe that is not a bad thing after all

 

[Wattie]

Seems like at some point when the debt and borrowing merry go round slows down then stops the realisation might hit home for some. At some point sometime it must fall down. When the borrower tries to borrow and the lender has to borrow to lend. Then that lender needs to borrow to lend but their lender hasn't got any money it stops. Surely that is in actual real danger of happening as global options close in availability. Or the rates are so high it becomes crazy painful.

Again cash is king......people with cash do well regardless of the economy state. If it is booming they win.......crashing they win.....in between they win. Therefore I will always try to keep a certain amount of liquidity to reduce my expose to pain. Again I'm just a simple man with simple means and understanding. Maybe that is not a bad thing after all

Cash isn’t king in a hyperinflationary scenario.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Wattie]

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said this: (Reuters) - The Trump administration is considering taking stakes in U.S. energy companies as one possible option as it seeks to help the nation’s oil and gas sector.
A play here would be ticker XLE, Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund.

Ratings agencies at it again....remember junk Mortgage backed securities, packages as triple AAA.

Italy-

S&P Keeps Italy Debt Rating At BBB Amid ECB Backstop

S&P announced Friday it was maintaining the debt rating for Italy at BBB amid budget pressures from coronavirus lockdowns and financing backstops provided by the European Central Bank.

www.barrons.com

saying "we could lower the ratings if government debt to GDP fails to shift onto a clearly discernible downward path over the next three years, or if there is a marked deterioration in borrowing conditions that jeopardizes the sovereign's public finance sustainability, including for example due to insufficiently supportive policy measures at the eurozone level."

SO S&P said that it expects Italian debt - which is about to go parabolic - to "shift onto a clearly discernible downward part."

Incredible, fundamentals ignored once again.

 

[Froddy]

These are technical targets in oil - I kid you not, as we move into hyperinflation ...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/j5tcXP9B/

Yep ...
I hold options on 300 shares in Chesapeake Energy (CHK) which I bought on Monday - happily the price has almost doubled in 4 days ...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cJcbkuRf/

 

[Wattie]

Yep ...
I hold options on 300 shares in Chesapeake Energy (CHK) which I bought on Monday - happily the price has doubled in 4 days ...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cJcbkuRf/

Nice!
My miners have been ticking along nicely too (nothing along the doubling line though).
Haven’t added anything else recently.


Things are about to get very interesting. We’re approaching the point where people’s savings are running out (if they had any) and the credit defaults are occurring.The US has ballsed up it’s rescue package for small businesses...which employs 70% of workers.......many haven’t had any money and it ran out of funds to disperse!!

The Fed cannot rescue this. Grab your popcorn.

 

[D Walker]

I’ve been saying it for years, the best thing we can all do, is turn up every month and withdraw our cash in full after paying outgoings. Banks have managed to make us think we need them, rather than they need our money.

 

[D Walker]

Btw “the law” says.... TUI should have reimbursed us 2 weeks after cancelling our holiday, guess what, the “law” doesn’t apply now, cos they don’t have the ******* money, however, if, I hadn’t have paid my dues a week before lockdown, the “law” would have enabled a bayliff to my house by now to collect the owed funds to TUI.

 

[rockits]

Cash isn’t king in a hyperinflationary scenario.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Good article and very interesting. A little counter intuitive in places though.

So everyone knows the price of gold is strong and rising. Many people are moving into gold in some fashion physcially or otherwise. Could that not be first or even second level thinking and maybe third level thinking be required?

Is everyone going to keep feeding the gold frenzy? As soon as there becomes a better alternaitve it gets dumped and people will shift to the alternative.

It is far too complex for me and many otherwise to understand and make.decisions on. However sometimes over complication leads to poor decisions as well.

All I know is I'm not up to my eye balls in debt. Have a bit of savings/investments/cash so happier in the ignorant bliss that I am better off than having none of this things.

It is all far too complex everywhere and fundementals are all out the window. I have tried to worry less about what I think and feel but just react to actual situations as they happen then react accordingly. The data tells me what I need to know. I don't need to add complexity with additional data or thoughts as it is pointless because often it doesn't count or matter.

The truth is nobody actually knows the best play. Some think they do and might be right but until it plays out nobody really knows. It is like planning and executing a perfect murder (I'm not btw!) but there is always one stone not overturned or one mistake always made. Perfection is hard to come by.

Que Sera Sera.

 

[Froddy]

Nice!
My miners have been ticking along nicely too (nothing along the doubling line though).
Haven’t added anything else recently.
View attachment 68997View attachment 68998View attachment 68999

Things are about to get very interesting. We’re approaching the point where people’s savings are running out (if they had any) and the credit defaults are occurring.The US has ballsed up it’s rescue package for small businesses...which employs 70% of workers.......many haven’t had any money and it ran out of funds to disperse!!

The Fed cannot rescue this. Grab your popcorn.

Glad to hear it, Wattie - I really hope it all pays off. Those who work hard deserve rewards, and we live and breathe these markets ...

As for the Fed, they're trying to squeeze a water bomb, but any child would know that the balloon is always going to pop out somewhere.

 

[rockits]

I have an issue and always have in govts getting too heavily involved in businesses/markets. Let them all succeed or fail as it falls. It will work itself out. That is what a laissez faire economy should do and something I personally believe.

I do believe there still needs to be decent regulation though for obvious reasons.

Prices will go up, prices will go down. Businesses will fail, new ones will create. People will lose jobs and there will be pain but maybe lessons can be learned and we all will be better for it.

I feel for the people really on the breadline as they have few options or choices sometimes none. The people I don't feel for are the ones that had choices and either ignored them or didn't give a sh1t. The trouble is that the dirty robbing scumbags often get away scot free with other people's money. That is just not right and doesn't sit well with me.

 

[Wattie]

I have an issue and always have in govts getting too heavily involved in businesses/markets. Let them all succeed or fail as it falls. It will work itself out. That is what a laissez faire economy should do and something I personally believe.

I do believe there still needs to be decent regulation though for obvious reasons.

Prices will go up, prices will go down. Businesses will fail, new ones will create. People will lose jobs and there will be pain but maybe lessons can be learned and we all will be better for it.

I feel for the people really on the breadline as they have few options or choices sometimes none. The people I don't feel for are the ones that had choices and either ignored them or didn't give a sh1t. The trouble is that the dirty robbing scumbags often get away scot free with other people's money. That is just not right and doesn't sit well with me.

You're describing capitalism....which used to work very well until banks and politicians decided that tbtf meant everyone gets bailed out.

Morale hazard gone, lesson learnt is do the wrong thing and get bailed out anyway. Boeing, banks, Hedge funds, debtors, countries.....oil.... airlines, nothing can fail.

Et voila, todays scenario with the Fed bailing out the entire world......except it cant.

 

[Wattie]

Good article and very interesting. A little counter intuitive in places though.

So everyone knows the price of gold is strong and rising. Many people are moving into gold in some fashion physcially or otherwise. Could that not be first or even second level thinking and maybe third level thinking be required?

Is everyone going to keep feeding the gold frenzy? As soon as there becomes a better alternaitve it gets dumped and people will shift to the alternative.

It is far too complex for me and many otherwise to understand and make.decisions on. However sometimes over complication leads to poor decisions as well.

All I know is I'm not up to my eye balls in debt. Have a bit of savings/investments/cash so happier in the ignorant bliss that I am better off than having none of this things.

It is all far too complex everywhere and fundementals are all out the window. I have tried to worry less about what I think and feel but just react to actual situations as they happen then react accordingly. The data tells me what I need to know. I don't need to add complexity with additional data or thoughts as it is pointless because often it doesn't count or matter.

The truth is nobody actually knows the best play. Some think they do and might be right but until it plays out nobody really knows. It is like planning and executing a perfect murder (I'm not btw!) but there is always one stone not overturned or one mistake always made. Perfection is hard to come by.

Que Sera Sera.

We're looking at "currency debasement" on an epic scale here. Trust in FIAT currency is going to be tested.

Gold is readily convertible in any currency so is very flexible....I would also suggest that Gold is not in a frenzy. Its owned by around 3% of people...even fewer hold it physically (Physical prices are 15% + above spot)

I think the only two things to worry about re precious metals are

1. Some kind of confiscation.....presumably it would be used to back a new Govt currency under a reset. Not sure it would apply globally but it could do.
2. The removal of "cash". Govts have been looking at this for ages and a "virus infecting cash" is a great excuse to get rid. Replacement by a National or global digital currency is possible- which is big brother stuff. Assets would need to be traded /converted to the new currency equivalent....metals shafted at that point?

This would end "Cash in hand" transactions and would mean everyone's assets would be fully transparant......at most. Taxation!! That said "Black markets may develop.....convert to crypto etc instead....unless of course govts shut that down too.

 

[rockits]

Agreed. We have this modern propensity to reward failure. I don't mean to not punish it I actually mean reward it.

This is an issue and shouldn't be the case. If there are no punishments or consequences then anything goes right?

What's next......the police and justice system not punishing crime strong enough....oh!

We are rewarding failure in so many ways. Some people have and will have no idea what success is. Or the difference between success and failure.

There has to and needs to be consequences.

My current focus around technology and is over complexity and over use or over reliance draws some similar conclusions. You have Facebook and others hosting/harbouring millions of negative/criminal/hateful comments. Harbouring groups and content without taking any responsibility at all for this. This has to start changing as it has gone too far already.

There is a reason our brains and nervous system gets a reaction when we toucb something hot. If we didn't we would have 3rd degrees burns. The consequence stop us from doing it again. Without these it doesn't end well.

 

[rockits]

We're looking at "currency debasement" on an epic scale here. Trust in FIAT currency is going to be tested.

Gold is readily convertible in any currency so is very flexible....I would also suggest that Gold is not in a frenzy. Its owned by around 3% of people...even fewer hold it physically (Physical prices are 15% + above spot)

I think the only two things to worry about re precious metals are

1. Some kind of confiscation.....presumably it would be used to back a new Govt currency under a reset. Not sure it would apply globally but it could do.
2. The removal of "cash". Govts have been looking at this for ages and a "virus infecting cash" is a great excuse to get rid. Replacement by a National or global digital currency is possible- which is big brother stuff. Assets would need to be traded /converted to the new currency equivalent....metals shafted at that point?

This would end "Cash in hand" transactions and would mean everyone's assets would be fully transparant......at most. Taxation!! That said "Black markets may develop.....convert to crypto etc instead....unless of course govts shut that down too.

I think we all know we are headed for a digital or crypto currency. That is my opinion and just a matter of when not if.

Yes, there have been historic occasions when gold has been confiscated. It could happen again but I doubt it.

A digital regulated state provided currency gives them all they need to control that last element. I am not too bothered as have nothing to hide. It would potentially clean up loads of tax evasion and crime. If created and introduced correclty which is a good thing. Trouble is until they leagalise and regulate drugs, prostitution.and everything there will always be an underworld or off grid activity.

The stupid thing isn't they can't police what they already know about now so what makes them think they can police the stuff they don't know about now but will know about after these changes?!

 

[Wattie]

I think we all know we are headed for a digital or crypto currency. That is my opinion and just a matter of when not if.

Yes, there have been historic occasions when gold has been confiscated. It could happen again but I doubt it.

A digital regulated state provided currency gives them all they need to control that last element. I am not too bothered as have nothing to hide. It would potentially clean up loads of tax evasion and crime. If created and introduced correclty which is a good thing. Trouble is until they leagalise and regulate drugs, prostitution.and everything there will always be an underworld or off grid activity.

The stupid thing isn't they can't police what they already know about now so what makes them think they can police the stuff they don't know about now but will know about after these changes?!

I don't think its a question of "nothing to hide".
It's more a question of who's gonna pay for all these trillions.....bailing out the debt, bad business etc.

Lets just say there's a digital currency and your government say right, one off tax of 50% on assets to pay for it all.
You are right royally fecked, oh and by the way, debtors wont be....they've got nothing, no assets in the digital currency....the fact is, they're the ones being rewarded for borrowing and blowing it!

And don't believe for one minute this couldn't happen. It already has and is the template for the future.
Cyprus.

 

[lozcb]

I don't think its a question of "nothing to hide".
It's more a question of who's gonna pay for all these trillions.....bailing out the debt, bad business etc.

Lets just say there's a digital currency and your government say right, one off tax of 50% on assets to pay for it all.
You are right royally fecked, oh and by the way, debtors wont be....they've got nothing, no assets in the digital currency....the fact is, they're the ones being rewarded for borrowing and blowing it!

And don't believe for one minute this couldn't happen. It already has and is the template for the future.
Cyprus.

Kenya has just implemented something similar , they changed all the currency denominations , anyone trying to change more than a Few 1000 dollars worth at the banks were investigated and had to prove where it originated , the whole of the black economy was virtually eradicated within 6 months ........................thats not to say it hasnt restarted , but a lot of prominent people lost an awful lot of money

 

[Delmonte]

Some superb work here gents. Fascinating stuff. I've been away from here a few days but just catching up, a real credit to you all.

If I may get back on track with advice for investments for a semi novice...

I agree that we're going to be looking at inflation, maybe seriously. Also fully expecting a real hike downward in stocks. Trying to protect myself from these.

Do we then expect commodity based stocks, let's say oilers, gold miners, to buck the trend of stock price decline, due to inflation of the assets they produce (gold, oil, whatever)?

My other interest is in property. How do we think this will play out? Do we see a property crash? But that would mean property doing the exact opposite of the expected inflation of everything else?

 

[Wattie]

I’ll start.
My expectations are
Oil, no demand as the economy slows. bailed out. Struggles for years.....manipulated as the US has the petro-dollar, possible wars to inflate price upwards.

Property, huge devaluations as millions of mortgages default as millions, globally, face unemployment. No loans available as lending standards tighten......who’s gonna lend to bankrupt people, certainly not bankrupt banks! Banks will only endorse programmes backed by govts as they will be the guarantors....everything else, poof, gone in a puff of smoke.

Property is one massive debt based, over inflated bubble. It has just popped.

Gold. Miners should do well if they can maintain production successfully...depends if they can staff operations.....isolation/covid risks. Price goes up....their shares go up if they are producing!

Silver worth a punt as should follow suit. Silver is possibly the most undervalued safety play on the planet.

Gold- my thoughts are well documented. Imperative you own physical.

Hope others chip in to assist you with their thoughts.

The important thing here is that stock markets are manipulated and do not reflect economic reality....the US Ponzi, will determine everything. The Fed are clueless and nothing they can do, money print, will change the economic reality and debt default tsunami of what is about to go down.

The global Ponzi is out of cash.....

 

[rockits]

I don't think its a question of "nothing to hide".
It's more a question of who's gonna pay for all these trillions.....bailing out the debt, bad business etc.

Lets just say there's a digital currency and your government say right, one off tax of 50% on assets to pay for it all.
You are right royally fecked, oh and by the way, debtors wont be....they've got nothing, no assets in the digital currency....the fact is, they're the ones being rewarded for borrowing and blowing it!

And don't believe for one minute this couldn't happen. It already has and is the template for the future.
Cyprus.

I do agree but how can you stop it? Not needs a civil uprising than any current activist group or likewise.

Only obvious way is to go completely off grid and literally fend for yourself. Is it possible....maybe.

Or maybe a little electronic trickery would be usedul

 

[rockits]

I see an electronic or crypto currency as a benefit to most law abiding decent citizens in the main.

If we can curtail much of the criminal behaviour of payments and movement of money to give more transparency it is bad for bad people and better for good people. On the initial face of it anyway in theory. Of course there will be some complications and potential for exploitation but you are saying that a free world.democracy is going to sway towards a communist state?

This includes having more control of the rich and corporations. The likes of Facebook, Google, Apple etc. won't see this coming and won't be able to do much about it for once.

It will be hard for billionaires and the super rich to actually go off grid to carry on earning as they need the grid to continue their immense wealth streams.

We have already had a fair bit of inflation in real terms over the last few years just not so obvious.

Lots of interesting discussion to be had for sure.