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Lozzer

Lozzer

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I'm not an investor as such but I find this thread fascinating, looking around how would IAG fare? This lockdown won't last forever?
 
Wattie

Wattie

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8,640
rockits said:
Great news....good work. Any profit at the moment is good news.

Most goes over my head too. I understand the basics and all I need to. You need balls of steel at the moment. They need to create a new term for a tree shake. Some of these trees are being shaken by bl00dy hurricanes at the moment.

Added some more NCYT earlier today on dips. Bought back into HOC again.

Still holding NCYT, GGP, SOLG for a while I think. Might dump half of NCYT at £5 if it gets there next week but definitely will at £6.

If I close all positions now that will be 40% profit using circa £25k over 6 weeks so pretty happy with that. A smidge better than 1% over a year but a profit isn't a profit until realised so not there yet.

It is good I haven't got much time to watch as I could imagine it would do your head in.

My only.goal is to beat the interest rate the bank gives over a year and I'd call that a win.
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40% in these bo11ox markets is excellent.
Well done Sir!
 
Froddy

Froddy

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1,072
I know it's crazy, but I'm putting it out there ...

Fib extension target for S&P (WEEKLY chart) on the premise that we have a V-shaped bottom:

Fib extension target for gold (MONTHLY chart) on the premise that we have a "megaphone pattern" forming AND that price fails at last high:

S&P put:call ratio moving average suggests the market is not close to reversing to the downside yet - could take weeks ...

Watch closely the S&P 0.618 Fib retracement at c.2930 - this is the next level for the shorts to defend

Purely theoretical - can make arguments either way. I suppose we have to keep our minds open in these interesting times!
 
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rockits

rockits

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9,172
Wattie said:
40% in these bo11ox markets is excellent.
Well done Sir!
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We will see what next week brings....it is not in the bank yet but even if this wasn't realised I've banked way over 1% that is for sure! Not hard though to beat 1% though.

Imagine how much an investment bank can earn using our money at the moment if they are any good. Pay 1% and earn maybe 1000%!
 
allandwf

allandwf

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10,995
Markets are all over the place, with huge swings. I put a couple of thousand into Oil & Gas Co's. stock at the end of March, took £600 out last week, which will pay for bits and bobs over the next month or so. The rest is in for the long term, to top up my others.
 
Froddy

Froddy

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1,072
I think it's really important that people understand that Big Money and its algos constantly target liquidity. So, if the crowd is too short, what better way to make money than to rally? The more the crowd shorts, the harder the market will rally. It really has little to do with what the share is actually worth - it's all about stealing money from retail traders. This is why the markets don't make sense at the moment.

I bang on about options expiration in the US markets and manipulation, when Big Money closes prices at the levels which exert maximum pain upon retail traders to ensure that as many options expire worthless as is possible. Price closes at or near whole numbers where the bulk of strike price volume lies.

No coincidence that, yesterday (and I must stress that this is not atypical):

Amazon closed at exactly 2375 - odd isn't it??

Netflix - 422.96 (422.50?)

Facebook 179.24 (180?):

Boeing 154.00 (155?)

Google 1279.00 (1280?)

Zoom 150.06 (150?)

The list goes on ...

The big day to mark on your calendar is 29/4 - US GDP figures. By then, maybe Joe Soap will have capitulated on his short and will have bet the farm long. Even then, if Joe is too short, the market may still rally on catastrophic data. It will all depend upon the put:call ratio moving average, and whether the crowd is too long, or too short. That is critical ...
 
Wattie

Wattie

Member
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8,640
Froddy said:
I think it's really important that people understand that Big Money and its algos constantly target liquidity. So, if the crowd is too short, what better way to make money than to rally? The more the crowd shorts, the harder the market will rally. It really has little to do with what the share is actually worth - it's all about stealing money from retail traders. This is why the markets don't make sense at the moment.

I bang on about options expiration in the US markets and manipulation, when Big Money closes prices at the levels which exert maximum pain upon retail traders to ensure that as many options expire worthless as is possible. Price closes at or near whole numbers where the bulk of strike price volume lies.

No coincidence that, yesterday (and I must stress that this is not atypical):

Amazon closed at exactly 2375 - odd isn't it??

Netflix - 422.96 (422.50?)

Facebook 179.24 (180?):

Boeing 154.00 (155?)

Google 1279.00 (1280?)

Zoom 150.06 (150?)

The list goes on ...

The big day to mark on your calendar is 29/4 - US GDP figures. By then, maybe Joe Soap will have capitulated on his short and will have bet the farm long. Even then, if Joe is too short, the market may still rally on catastrophic data. It will all depend upon the put:call ratio moving average, and whether the crowd is too long, or too short. That is critical ...
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Us GDP will be horrendous- that will probably send markets soaring......falsely.
Good stuff as usual Froddy, the small man gets scalped by the big guns. Rinse and repeat.

Markets don't bear any resemblance to economic reality- trade accordingly.

Fundamentals will ultimately win out. Worth a listen
kingworldnews.com

Alasdair Macleod - King World News

Alasdair Macleod: Head of Research for Goldmoney, Inc. - Alasdair has been interviewed at CNBC as well as many other premier networks. He has been working in the financial world since 1970 and been a Member of the London Stock Exchange for nearly five decades. His experience encompasses equity...
kingworldnews.com kingworldnews.com
 
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Delmonte

Delmonte

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878
Lozzer said:
I'm not an investor as such but I find this thread fascinating, looking around how would IAG fare? This lockdown won't last forever?
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I’d look at them long term definitely. They could lose Virgin as a rival, that would also give them a sizeable advantage. I expect things to be flying again in July... so many countries rely heavily on tourism

Edit-
I’d just add to that, if they got really in the ****, as flag carrier I’d expect them to be bailed out
 
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Wattie

Wattie

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8,640
Froddy said:
Negative figure crude futures? Didn't even know that could happen:

I'll be watching USD/CAD pair closely - it's making all the right noises but this market just cannot be trusted. Oil is oversold and I'll bet Big Money will be salivating at the prospect of Joe Soap shorting it - rich pickings? Grab the popcorn ...

MaseratiGent, SOS!!
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I don’t think oils oversold at all Froddy. There are massive stockpiles of it everywhere, tankers just sat, bobbing around and so there’s no demand for it.
The latest cuts in production were far too small and as a result there is still massive supply....with no-where to go......increasing stockpiles.
This is yet another sign that the global economy is in freefall. No goods being produced, no airlines flying to consume millions of barrels, no jobs.
If they keep pumping it out of the ground the oversupply will increase.
 
Froddy

Froddy

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1,072
Wattie said:
I don’t think oils oversold at all Froddy. There are massive stockpiles of it everywhere, tankers just sat, bobbing around and so there’s no demand for it.
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Totally agree - as always, I'm talking short-term technical. Of course it ultimately could (and probably will) go lower. It's the potential (and likely violent) dead cat bounce to the mean (the 21 EMA) which could break many hearts ...
 
Wattie

Wattie

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8,640
Froddy said:
Totally agree - as always, I'm talking short-term technical. Of course it ultimately could (and probably will) go lower. It's the potential (and likely violent) dead cat bounce to the mean (the 21 EMA) which could break many hearts ...
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pretty good explanation of what's occurring here.

Here Is The Full Explanation Behind Today's Unprecedented Negative Oil Price | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
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