Ok, gut feeling is good if you're extremely intuitive - some people are born "winners". I'm definitely not one of those - always pick the shortest, yet slowest, supermarket queue.I really wish I had the understanding and confidence you and MaserG have to play these markets.
I simply don’t so as a result have to keep it simple with long calls in researched positions, capturing profits and a lot of gut feeling!
I’m in the bleak camp with a don’t fight the Fed mentality.
Coronavirus May push Central banks to the end of their credibility if a solution to the global infection spread is not found soon. Given the known disease parameters I can’t see anything other than an enforced lockdown of the public stemming its spread....like China is doing.
6 months is a very long time for this to develop
As for research, you've clearly done your homework as your positions are fantastic!
As for understanding, it should be clear that MG and I have different approaches: he's a pro who understands the macro picture; I'm a novice who doesn't, and who can only analyse charts. I will never have MG's understanding of how the markets truly work as a retail (amateur) trader. I've worked extremely hard to learn what I have, though.
As for 6 months, I'm sensing you want things to happen more quickly. This is where it gets dangerous, as the markets are a psychological battlefield: you literally have to be a machine (if you're not a born "winner") to succeed in the markets (and I should tell you now that it's extremely hard). The markets will reflect your instincts/personality back at you, and punish your weaknesses. Sounds ridiculous, I know. Making money can happen quickly, but making it consistently is really hard. It takes immense discipline to succeed. You can have superb analytical skills and yet be a hopeless trader (like me, but I'm trying my best!)
If you're serious about this for retirement (and who isn't), you need a strategy that you can employ when certain criteria are met, time and again, absent emotion.
It really isn't easy! It's the hardest "easy" thing you could ever attempt ...
Don't get worked up about the Fed - open yourself up to the opportunity flow, and take what the market is willing to give you.