Shares to watch

Froddy

Member
Messages
127
I really wish I had the understanding and confidence you and MaserG have to play these markets.
I simply don’t so as a result have to keep it simple with long calls in researched positions, capturing profits and a lot of gut feeling!

I’m in the bleak camp with a don’t fight the Fed mentality.

Coronavirus May push Central banks to the end of their credibility if a solution to the global infection spread is not found soon. Given the known disease parameters I can’t see anything other than an enforced lockdown of the public stemming its spread....like China is doing.

6 months is a very long time for this to develop
Ok, gut feeling is good if you're extremely intuitive - some people are born "winners". I'm definitely not one of those - always pick the shortest, yet slowest, supermarket queue.
As for research, you've clearly done your homework as your positions are fantastic!
As for understanding, it should be clear that MG and I have different approaches: he's a pro who understands the macro picture; I'm a novice who doesn't, and who can only analyse charts. I will never have MG's understanding of how the markets truly work as a retail (amateur) trader. I've worked extremely hard to learn what I have, though.
As for 6 months, I'm sensing you want things to happen more quickly. This is where it gets dangerous, as the markets are a psychological battlefield: you literally have to be a machine (if you're not a born "winner") to succeed in the markets (and I should tell you now that it's extremely hard). The markets will reflect your instincts/personality back at you, and punish your weaknesses. Sounds ridiculous, I know. Making money can happen quickly, but making it consistently is really hard. It takes immense discipline to succeed. You can have superb analytical skills and yet be a hopeless trader (like me, but I'm trying my best!)

If you're serious about this for retirement (and who isn't), you need a strategy that you can employ when certain criteria are met, time and again, absent emotion.
It really isn't easy! It's the hardest "easy" thing you could ever attempt ...

Don't get worked up about the Fed - open yourself up to the opportunity flow, and take what the market is willing to give you.
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
3,674
G
Ok, gut feeling is good if you're extremely intuitive - some people are born "winners". I'm definitely not one of those - always pick the shortest, yet slowest, supermarket queue.
As for research, you've clearly done your homework as your positions are fantastic!
As for understanding, it should be clear that MG and I have different approaches: he's a pro who understands the macro picture; I'm a novice who doesn't, and who can only analyse charts. I will never have MG's understanding of how the markets truly work as a retail (amateur) trader. I've worked extremely hard to learn what I have, though.
As for 6 months, I'm sensing you want things to happen more quickly. This is where it gets dangerous, as the markets are a psychological battlefield: you literally have to be a machine (if you're not a born "winner") to succeed in the markets (and I should tell you now that it's extremely hard). The markets will reflect your instincts/personality back at you, and punish your weaknesses. Sounds ridiculous, I know. Making money can happen quickly, but making it consistently is really hard. It takes immense discipline to succeed. You can have superb analytical skills and yet be a hopeless trader (like me, but I'm trying my best!)

If you're serious about this for retirement (and who isn't), you need a strategy that you can employ when certain criteria are met, time and again, absent emotion.
It really isn't easy! It's the hardest "easy" thing you could ever attempt ...

Don't get worked up about the Fed - open yourself up to the opportunity flow, and take what the market is willing to give you.
Good advice, cheers.
 
Last edited:

Froddy

Member
Messages
127
Haha!
ABBV and GILD look fantastic - well done Wattie - your hard work is paying off! Do you have an exit strategy? It's really important ...
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
3,674
ABBV and GILD look fantastic - well done Wattie - your hard work is paying off! Do you have an exit strategy? It's really important ...
Yeah, I’m watching things very closely...at some point Central banks will no longer have any impact and sentiment/reality will sink in re the seriousness of the Cvirus.
Will book profits at end of the week.
 

stindig

Junior Member
Messages
75
Gold related, take a look at Greatland Gold if you fancy a higher risk punt. Their share price has doubled this year on news of a possible (increasingly probable) tier 1 gold find in western Australia. Been following them for a while and 2020 could well be their breakout year.

As always, do you own research.
AT3200AC. Please message me your address so that I can send you a decent case of wine. I invested in Greatland Gold last Friday. 33.7% up in 4 trading days. I’m out now. Wahoo!
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
127
Chaps,

As predicted, the S&P has rallied to the 335 area, poking its nose above the 2.618 extension of the July/August swing (to take out stops?).

Tomorrow we have POTENTIAL Fibonacci timing for a high (red arrow): https://www.tradingview.com/x/DN4lTprw/

Significantly, the put/call ratio is now over-extended to the call side, meaning the crowd is long (see below). The crowd is usually wrong.
65495


I think things are hotting up ...
 
Last edited:

Wattie

Member
Messages
3,674
Few thoughts...
  1. Markets will continue to hit highs as the fed has confirmed its repo will continue.
  2. Bad news is good news for markets as it confirms more QE/Helicopter money. If reports of potential 60-80% infection rates (150,000,000 dead at 2% end of the mortality scale) of the global population are true via CV then they're gonna have to pour trillions and trillions In to prop up the global economic consequences. Fiat currency will be worthless at that point.
  3. American markets are pricing in another Trump election victory so it'll be more more more spending in addition to 1 and 2.
As always DYOR.
 
Last edited:

AT3200AC

Junior Member
Messages
61
AT3200AC. Please message me your address so that I can send you a decent case of wine. I invested in Greatland Gold last Friday. 33.7% up in 4 trading days. I’m out now. Wahoo!
Top man. That is brilliant. I’m playing the long game on this one. It’s funny as I got switched onto it via somebody signposting this share. You took the risk so well done you. If only all short term plays rewarded so well.
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
3,674
Top man. That is brilliant. I’m playing the long game on this one. It’s funny as I got switched onto it via somebody signposting this share. You took the risk so well done you. If only all short term plays rewarded so well.
Enjoy.
It had a bit of a drop yesterday..... I switched out of my poorer performing Aussie goldminer, raised some £ and am now on the sideline watching it....may pile in....will watch it today to see if pullback is over.
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
3,674
My bets not going very well.

Fed Chairman Powell- U.S. Fed chairman says current monetary policy likely to remain appropriate.

“Of course, policy is not on a preset course. If developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly," Powell said, adding the risks to the U.S. economic outlook remain”

Thisof course means they will print even more money out of thin air than (rate cut too) they are currently doing.

As a result- virus, what virus?

New record highs for US stocks.

Certainly not based on earnings!

65539

The game is clear.
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
127
Patience, Wattie! Next week is options expiration week in the US. Big money will start searching for liquidity, and that means punishing profitable options (derivatives) which they have sold: the name of the game is to make as many of those sold options as is possible to expire worthless.

If everybody agrees that the market is going up, how can big money make money? They have to take that money from others, and the only way to do it is to crush, or frighten, the longs.

The crowd is way too long ...

I appreciate this may only be a short-term solution to your conundrum!
 
Last edited:

Wattie

Member
Messages
3,674
Et voila.

This is a lie, the US is currently in recession hence why QE (repo) has never stopped. They’re faking a “wealth effect” through stock market highs.

Us consumers rely on the Ponzi too

Serious delinquencies rising.....”The proportion of credit-card debt in serious delinquency, meaning payments were late by 90 days or more, rose to 5.32% in the fourth quarter, the highest level in almost eight years, from 5.16% in the third quarter. The serious-delinquency rate for borrowers from 18 to 29 years old rose to 9.36%, the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2010, from 8.91%”

The U.S. national debt is currently $23 trillion.
Asked what level would be concerning, Powell replied: “I would be concerned now.”
But we will ignore that and keep producing more and more debt.....:lol2: (The Ponzi relies on it)

The US economy is a house of cards.

Re stocks, Powell has just signalled that the Fed will not allow the markets to fall.

"Powell has dismissed the notion that the Fed would push its benchmark rate into negative territory"
So that's guaranteed to happen...... another lie.

Nothing else matters.....bad news is good and Coronavirus could be the worst news of all.
 
Last edited:

Wattie

Member
Messages
3,674
Enjoy.
It had a bit of a drop yesterday..... I switched out of my poorer performing Aussie goldminer, raised some £ and am now on the sideline watching it....may pile in....will watch it today to see if pullback is over.
Greatland getting battered.

Another 79billion from 65558the Fed.
Cannot let stocks fall.....
 
Last edited: