Froddy
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Now that you put it that way, Wattie, you're spot on!
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rockits
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Is that an intentional pun?
Froddy
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Very good! ....Is that an intentional pun?
Wattie
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OMG, by the way I don't understand 95% of this but I know it isn't good.
"The Market Is Broken" - Why Nobody Is Trading Any More | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
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MaseratiGent
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There is an extreme need for USD despite the Fed effectively offering unlimited USD as of yesterday. This points to extreme dislocations far removed from what equities are demonstrating. Notably in cross currency swaps where e.g. a European EUR based corporate borrows in USD but fixes this cost over 5ys in EUR using cross currency swaps. When there are massive market moves the margin calls become huge on such derivatives yet they underpin much of global corporate non-native currency borrowing. Basically everyone bought USD assets and funded it in EUR, GBP or something else. Now (as an analogy) repayment day has come early and everyone needs USD. Cable (GBP/USD) has gone from 1.30 to 1.23 in days for this reason.
Wattie
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MG, thanks for explaining something in a way even I can understand! Top man.
Yup Aus 1.52 to 1.62 as another example.
So whats the worst that can happen? Can it be fixed or are we gonna see the financial system implode?
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Wattie
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I dont understand a lot of it but I know enough that its many many magnitudes worse than the GFC if it hits the fan........
Remember too, we haven't even begun to see the effects of the virus on economies and social health.
Perfect storm.
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lozcb
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Feck me!....... bloody good job I live in a ground floor bungalow , not far to fall once I can find the god ****
key to open the god **** window so I can jump out
Wattie
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Interesting read
www.zerohedge.com
www.zerohedge.com
Market Crash. Is It Over, Or Is It The "Revenant" | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
The Aftermath - Surveying The Wreckage From Last Week's Market-nado | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
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lozcb
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Interesting read
Market Crash. Is It Over, Or Is It The "Revenant" | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
The Aftermath - Surveying The Wreckage From Last Week's Market-nado | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
Im ony 4'6" wattie , bit above my head all that , so basically we were having our regular monthly tickle , someone caught a fecking cold who spread it around , the accountant got it and has gone off sick with the petty cash tin , and all we have left for the weekend is whats in our pockets
Froddy
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Interesting read
Market Crash. Is It Over, Or Is It The "Revenant" | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
Chaps,
The typical pattern during a downtrend is that price reverts to the 8 period exponential moving average (the 8EMA) on the daily chart, the yellow line on the charts below. It's not perfect, but it's a really good reference point and is supported by prior price behaviour
2008
2018:
Today:
As of yesterday's close the 8EMA on the S&P sits at 2795.94, and 2800 is a round number "psychological" target
That roughly corresponds with the 50% fibonacci retracement of the most recent swing high (4th March) to recent low which sits at c. 2805
We cannot rule out a retracement to 50% of the peak to trough (i.e. the entire down move), which sits at c. 2938. I'd be surprised, but anything is possible!
I think these are the levels to watch ...
Froddy
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Fear not, Lozcb, HM Govt has a plan!Im ony 4'6" wattie , bit above my head all that , so basically we were having our regular monthly tickle , someone caught a fecking cold who spread it around , the accountant got it and has gone off sick with the petty cash tin , and all we have left for the weekend is whats in our pockets
Wattie
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Is that in stilettos?Im ony 4'6" wattie , bit above my head all that , so basically we were having our regular monthly tickle , someone caught a fecking cold who spread it around , the accountant got it and has gone off sick with the petty cash tin , and all we have left for the weekend is whats in our pockets
Wattie
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As this deteriorates I expect the Fed to seek permission from Congress to buy Corporate bonds and equities.
True market price discovery obliterated.... for everyone to see, other than the enlightened few up till now.
Stocks still have a long way to fall.
Not looking good for Monday.
Trade Weekend Wall Street | Live Weekend Wall Street Stock Index Price | Weekend Wall Street | IG Australia
Weekend Wall Street [AU]
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During the GFC they bailed out the banks after businesses defaulted on loans.
Now they’re bailing out the businesses before they default on the loans!!!!
Unbelievable, they’re gonna need TRILLIONS by the time this is over!
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The markets have been unhinged from reality for a long time, back in the real world Ive got a few very successful friends with bars and restaurants, 1 is already looking to sell off assets to cover overheads of 3 places due to substantial drops in trade - compounded by his core market being Chinese students.
These are people with a decent amount of money in the bank but this coming out of the blue is gonna hit them hard. How companies with the debt ratios they have going to see it through is beyond me and if the lock down really hits there are going to be lots of casualties.
Was having a chat last night with a friend trying to work out who we think is gonna be hit hard? Aston? Metro bank? Deliveroo/uber? Boeing? Personally if it rolls on I cant see many winners at all.
These are people with a decent amount of money in the bank but this coming out of the blue is gonna hit them hard. How companies with the debt ratios they have going to see it through is beyond me and if the lock down really hits there are going to be lots of casualties.
Was having a chat last night with a friend trying to work out who we think is gonna be hit hard? Aston? Metro bank? Deliveroo/uber? Boeing? Personally if it rolls on I cant see many winners at all.
rockits
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I've been banging the same drum all my life about saving a bit, having a decent rainy day fund both in the business and personally. So by sacrifice, choice and design we have enough set aside in the business and personally to weather a storm for at least a year.
Nothing clever, just not spending every penny earnt. However as we know many are on the edge every day and don't have enough to get to the end of next week let alone the end of the month. I have sympathy for many but on the flip side no sympathy for the rest.
We have had businesses and personal finances over leveraged by far too many multiples for far too long. If a squeeze really starts it could potentially get very messy very quickly.
You could see 720's and the like dropping like stones and much further. Anything that is a luxury and not a necessity could be hit and hit hard. Must be a ton of businesses wide open to be hit hard.
When you start getting people scrambling for liquidity then assets will need to be sold. If the market becomes saturated there will be a scramble as sellers try to find a buyer which will be thin on the ground of course.
Anyone with lots of cash could hoover up a ton of bargains of all sorts potentially. Also possibly at silly silly prices. The likes of WBAC/BCA won't have enough cash to buy all the cars that will need selling. They potentially could go pop themselves.
The car leases may be OK but if any car is a luxury and not needed it will go. Then a further glut of cars on the market going nowhere fast.
The govt and the majority of the population have created a poor highly leveraged society and the openness for this to be obliterated and quickly is worrying.
I guess our small business with very low overheads, ongoing revenues and so much potential for remote IT Support/Services is not a bad place to be. There are certainly.many worse places for sure.
We could implode into depression and beyond a simple recession quite quickly if we are not careful. The Corona Virus will not be the cause but merely a trigger or catalyst. The house of cards is all there ready to fall and has been for some time. Just needs a strong wind or a decent vibration and the precarious construction is severely at risk of tumbling down.
I genuinely hope this doesn't happen and I hope we learn our lessons but I fear we won't. As we found when we were kids.....sometimes you can't be told and need to find out yourself.....the hard way!
Nothing clever, just not spending every penny earnt. However as we know many are on the edge every day and don't have enough to get to the end of next week let alone the end of the month. I have sympathy for many but on the flip side no sympathy for the rest.
We have had businesses and personal finances over leveraged by far too many multiples for far too long. If a squeeze really starts it could potentially get very messy very quickly.
You could see 720's and the like dropping like stones and much further. Anything that is a luxury and not a necessity could be hit and hit hard. Must be a ton of businesses wide open to be hit hard.
When you start getting people scrambling for liquidity then assets will need to be sold. If the market becomes saturated there will be a scramble as sellers try to find a buyer which will be thin on the ground of course.
Anyone with lots of cash could hoover up a ton of bargains of all sorts potentially. Also possibly at silly silly prices. The likes of WBAC/BCA won't have enough cash to buy all the cars that will need selling. They potentially could go pop themselves.
The car leases may be OK but if any car is a luxury and not needed it will go. Then a further glut of cars on the market going nowhere fast.
The govt and the majority of the population have created a poor highly leveraged society and the openness for this to be obliterated and quickly is worrying.
I guess our small business with very low overheads, ongoing revenues and so much potential for remote IT Support/Services is not a bad place to be. There are certainly.many worse places for sure.
We could implode into depression and beyond a simple recession quite quickly if we are not careful. The Corona Virus will not be the cause but merely a trigger or catalyst. The house of cards is all there ready to fall and has been for some time. Just needs a strong wind or a decent vibration and the precarious construction is severely at risk of tumbling down.
I genuinely hope this doesn't happen and I hope we learn our lessons but I fear we won't. As we found when we were kids.....sometimes you can't be told and need to find out yourself.....the hard way!
lozcb
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You said it , I know it , and many many others suspected it from our generation ( presuming your 50/60/70s generation that is ) people went colour blind to this from the 80,s yuppie era , and somehow the so called house of cards has been precariously built upon assumptions ........................reminds me of the first lunch meeting between Lio Dicaprio and his boss in Wolf of Wall street ahmmm ahmmm ahmmm
rockits
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Yup, born 1972. My brain and way of life is simple in the main.
It is very much like many things in 2020....we have far too much complexity everywhere. I don't think it is a good thing often.
I don't need a sensor under my bumper to wave my feet to open a car. A key is fine.
We often often solving problems that don't exist. The markets are very much case in point. Of course we don't need them to be anywhere as complex as they are. However it has created products, volatility, complexity and opportunity for a minority to make some serious amounts of cash constantly. At what cost?
This all stems IMHO from this weird desire for growth and advancement. We should all slow down a little, be a little more thoughtful and strategic. Rome wasn't built in a day but we have kids growing up wanting and knowing it is possible to become a zillionaire in 5 mins. Why? Also at what cost?
We are paying the price for our own decisions on being a complex society. Complexity breeds further complexity. Domino effect in play again.
We should all K.I.S.S
It is very much like many things in 2020....we have far too much complexity everywhere. I don't think it is a good thing often.
I don't need a sensor under my bumper to wave my feet to open a car. A key is fine.
We often often solving problems that don't exist. The markets are very much case in point. Of course we don't need them to be anywhere as complex as they are. However it has created products, volatility, complexity and opportunity for a minority to make some serious amounts of cash constantly. At what cost?
This all stems IMHO from this weird desire for growth and advancement. We should all slow down a little, be a little more thoughtful and strategic. Rome wasn't built in a day but we have kids growing up wanting and knowing it is possible to become a zillionaire in 5 mins. Why? Also at what cost?
We are paying the price for our own decisions on being a complex society. Complexity breeds further complexity. Domino effect in play again.
We should all K.I.S.S
