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GeoffCapes

Member
Messages
14,000
So where do we see the £ vs $ over the next 2-3 years?

A quick search on Google suggests that 1 dollar will be worth 80p (can't be right surely?) in 2 years. :eek::eek::eek:
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
Overnight, DXY ($US index) has reached, and has been perfectly rejected at, the upper broadening formation trendline; the last time it touched it (and was rejected) was in Jan 2017 - first chart. I have no idea whether price will break through, or fail here - we'll just have to wait and see. DXY does not represent the performance of GBP/USD, but the performance of the dollar across a basket of the major currencies. The weakness of GBP as a currency is a different matter.

GBPUSD fell below the all-time low overnight, but has since recovered - second chart. The all-time low was the obvious target for the shorts. The question which now arises is whether, with price having been taken below the all-time low, there has been a liquidity sweep to trigger buy and sell stops, or whether this is true price discovery. We will have to watch the action a little longer before we can make that call. For now, it certainly looks pretty bleak for GBP across the board, but we need to watch that dollar too ...

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mowlas

Member
Messages
1,736
The top two commenters in the FT summed it up perfectly this morning…

GBP to USD was £1 = $1.3532 on 1/1/2022. In other words, all sterling-denominated assets (including UK property) have lost over 30% of their value (in world reserve currency terms) year to date. The cost of all USD - denominated imports (including oil and natural gas) have soared over 30% year to date. The UK is becoming poorer by the minute.

It's as Larry Summers, ex US Treasury Secretary said- ‘the UK Government is behaving a bit like an emerging market turning itself into a submerging market.....this is simply not a moment for the kind of naive, wishful thinking, supply side economics that is being pursued in Britain.'
 

stindig

Member
Messages
450
To me it feels like the Bank of England has their foot on the break, in an attempt to induce a recession after all the money printing, at the same time as the Chancellor has his foot on the accelerator to try and get the economy moving. Do they talk? Or am I missing something?
 

CatmanV2

Member
Messages
48,802
To me it feels like the Bank of England has their foot on the break, in an attempt to induce a recession after all the money printing, at the same time as the Chancellor has his foot on the accelerator to try and get the economy moving. Do they talk? Or am I missing something?

No, it just sounds like you're listening to R4 this morning......

C