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Wattie

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DXY has today hit, and been perfectly rejected at, the 1.272 Fibonacci extension of the prior swing on the daily chart. Most moves terminate at extensions of prior swings. Will price carry on upwards to the next technical level, or is it exhausted? No idea, but this technical level should not be ignored ...

View attachment 105531
Far from exhausted imo Froddy.
Some horrific stuff coming out about the European energy position…..
Political economic energy suicide has been committed!
 

Froddy

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1,072
Far from exhausted imo Froddy.
Some horrific stuff coming out about the European energy position…..
Political economic energy suicide has been committed!
That’s interesting - I’m not up to speed on the latest news, but will have a look …

I’ve gone short natural gas today, after it went “inside candle and down” on the daily. It’s fallen 8% today, back down to the demand zone at the 8 level. Will it find support here, or go lower? Who knows …

105534
 

Wattie

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8,640
That’s interesting - I’m not up to speed on the latest news, but will have a look …

I’ve gone short natural gas today, after it went “inside candle and down” on the daily. It’s fallen 8% today, back down to the demand zone at the 8 level. Will it find support here, or go lower? Who knows …

View attachment 105534
Couple of views

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/europes-nightmare-scenario-comes-true-energy-bills-rise-eu2-trillion-will-reach-20

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/p...inflationary-depression-and-currency-collapse
 

Wattie

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8,640
I’m still Usd$ positioned.
If the Fed raises rates it strengthens and if it all falls apart it’s the “run to” currency of choice (the best rubbish in a bag of total dross).

View attachment 101627

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again.....EVERY Central bank has been running a Ponzi scheme. You cannot taper a Ponzi Scheme.
Will Japan crack first? https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/j...ctable-non-linearities-financial-markets-bank

Anyone listening?

GBP drops thru 1.14!!!!


$ or gold fellas.
105882

wakey wakey.
 
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Froddy

Member
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1,072
Anyone listening?

GBP drops thru 1.14!!!!


$ or gold fellas.
View attachment 105882

wakey wakey.
DXY (dollar index) - quite a few fair value gaps (inefficiencies) below to be filled on the daily chart (the green arrows point to the FVGs). Big Money doesn’t like leaving unfilled orders, and all that juicy profit potential. The markets are all about liquidity - little else - and these gaps can act like magnets …


106000
 

Wattie

Member
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8,640
I have no idea what that means Froddy.

R u saying it’s likely the $ will

1. strengthen.

2 or weaken.

against GBP.

I’ve just looked at my tea leaves ( fortunately I can still afford to boil A kettle )and my monies on 1 for now as we approach winter.
 

Froddy

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1,072
I have no idea what that means Froddy.

R u saying it’s likely the $ will

1. strengthen.

2 or weaken.

against GBP.

I’ve just looked at my tea leaves ( fortunately I can still afford to boil A kettle )and my monies on 1 for now as we approach winter.
Hi Wattie I think the probabilities favour a short-term DXY retracement/fall towards those FVGs, but I can’t say when that will happen - it could take days, or it could take weeks. These are extraordinary times and, frankly, anything could happen! There’s evidence elsewhere to support a correction (see earlier posts) including bearish RSI divergence, price being too far from the mean (price always reverts to the mean), and price rejection at the 1.272 Fib extension of the prior swing. A classic scenario would be a push higher, and then a failure at the highs before the retracement begins (a “double top”), potentially with another liquidity grab (also knows as a “fake out”) to trap the bulls. A weakening DXY would obviously mean a strengthening GBP/USD.

Unsurprisingly, there are also FVGs to be filled to the upside on the GBP/USD daily chart (marked below)

106009

With GBP, it’s important to look at the bigger picture - it’s approaching its all-time low on the yearly chart (below). Is 1.052 on the cards? Note the increased volume in recent years which may be suggestive of accumulation for a move higher in future years. Who knows?!

106011
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
Hi Wattie I think the probabilities favour a short-term DXY retracement/fall towards those FVGs, but I can’t say when that will happen - it could take days, or it could take weeks. These are extraordinary times and, frankly, anything could happen! There’s evidence elsewhere to support a correction (see earlier posts) including bearish RSI divergence, price being too far from the mean (price always reverts to the mean), and price rejection at the 1.272 Fib extension of the prior swing. A classic scenario would be a push higher, and then a failure at the highs before the retracement begins (a “double top”), potentially with another liquidity grab (also knows as a “fake out”) to trap the bulls. A weakening DXY would obviously mean a strengthening GBP/USD.

Unsurprisingly, there are also FVGs to be filled to the upside on the GBP/USD daily chart (marked below)

View attachment 106009

With GBP, it’s important to look at the bigger picture - it’s approaching its all-time low on the yearly chart (below). Is 1.052 on the cards? Note the increased volume in recent years which may be suggestive of accumulation for a move higher in future years. Who knows?!

View attachment 106011
Thanks for the input.
 

Wattie

Member
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8,640

Parity incoming….. god knows what happens when the latest Tory clown show is “found out”.

Funny….but not funny.

Talking of which -central banker clown shows have created this mess, hand in hand with the inept political elite.

worth a read
 
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Froddy

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1,072
It’s so bad that it’s almost a parody of itself. Blatant, unashamed, protection of the rich. Not a great headline, and I’m no socialist.

Drilling down, it’s actually really serious - the govt is creating inflationary pressures just as the Bank of England is trying to stamp them out. Left hand is not talking to right hand.

No surprise that Big Money doesn’t like it - it’s very, very rare that a major currency moves over 2% in a day - GBP has exceeded that by a country mile. Admittedly, it’s a perfect storm as the dollar is flying just as GBP is weakening, but the overall impression is that there is “no plan“ in this country, and that is truly alarming.
 

DLax69

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Messages
4,306
Hence Gold or $.
I know you know this…..for quite a while.
By the way this is sure to bring a Us recession.
I think that the University of Chicago is full of cranks. Because there is absolutely no economist I am aware of who could have reasonably predicted where we are...so no one can accurately gonna predict where we are heading. Markets aren't rational. The rightists on every continent want only to feed their cronies...despite the fact that "trickle down" doesn't, and wealth is becoming more and more concentrated...and I have friends who make $35,000/year who think they should be putting hard USD into crypto. We are all on a long, slow train ride to ****. About the only thing that has turned something like this around is a major war.

Hey! Wait a minute...:think:
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
I think that the University of Chicago is full of cranks. Because there is absolutely no economist I am aware of who could have reasonably predicted where we are...so no one can accurately gonna predict where we are heading. Markets aren't rational. The rightists on every continent want only to feed their cronies...despite the fact that "trickle down" doesn't, and wealth is becoming more and more concentrated...and I have friends who make $35,000/year who think they should be putting hard USD into crypto. We are all on a long, slow train ride to ****. About the only thing that has turned something like this around is a major war.

Hey! Wait a minute...:think:
Any economist worth his salt should have predicted this happening as it was blatantly obvious.

War….mmmmnn
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
DXY looking great, Wattie! Just a heads up that price is now sitting at the 1.272 Fibonacci extension of the Jan 17 high to Feb 18 low. This could be significant as most moves terminate at the extensions of prior swings. You'll see from the broadening formation that there is plenty of juice left in the tank, long-term. The question is whether price is at short-term exhaustion or not (i.e. whether it needs to catch its breath for a bit before resuming its upward journey). It may just carry on, who knows ... fingers crossed for you ...


View attachment 103245
DXY ($US) update - price is at exhaustion risk, having reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and the top of the broadening formation (the upper trendline) on the monthly chart. Lots of juicy liquidity below, including fair value gaps. Will price reverse soon(ish) or push on through? Who knows - these are extraordinary times …


106288
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
DXY ($US) update - price is at exhaustion risk, having reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and the top of the broadening formation (the upper trendline) on the monthly chart. Lots of juicy liquidity below, including fair value gaps. Will price reverse soon(ish) or push on through? Who knows - these are extraordinary times …


View attachment 106288
Checked my tea leaves This am Froddy and there was a clear message about the pounds status quo


I’m also impressed by their inciteful financial advice.

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