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Froddy

Member
Messages
857
Anyone care to explain last few days dollar shift , Ive got a few zero's to change up ...............how long is it worth holding on
Hi Loz,

This is a difficult one to answer. Both currencies look like they're at risk of exhaustion and ripe for a correction (dollar is at +3ATR on the weekly chart, and pound is at minus 3 ATR on the weekly chart). The fly in the ointment is that the dollar index (DXY) is potentially forming a rounding bottom pattern - if this completes, it's a technically bullish pattern; on the other hand, it may fail and make a double top. We'll have to wait and see. I'd say the probabilities favour a dollar pullback rather than a continuation, over the coming weeks, but who knows? Anything can happen!

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Wattie

Member
Messages
7,836
You’re being very short sighted.
Firstly you are correct as Fiat is becoming increasingly “worthless” with every single one printed but you have to understand that this is a fake game- govts will never admit they won’t repay all the debt they are creating.
Tomorrow’s problem.
Every govt is using the “stimulus” argument to continue money printing- it’s solved nothing. All the previous economic issue that existed a year ago are still there- massively worse and covids still here- millions more are unemployed and lots of zombie businesses exist......massive debt.

The key is the US.
Inflationary signs are everywhere (far higher than the stated fed targets- look at oils rise) but of course the Fed says there’s no inflation. Yields are rising in response, repo market turmoil, falling stock markets.......huge unemployment, another $2 trillion plus in stimulus due in months....the market doesn’t believe the Fed and is now testing it to see how far it will allow rates to rise.

Central banks are trapped.
They have created a QE monster that they cannot stop.......it all falls apart if they do and they know it.
It’s a Ponzi scheme and they rely on new money.
It’s ridiculous that markets are at all time highs when the world economy has been closed for a year- total nonsense, but it’s because there is no true price discovery anywhere. There hasn’t been any since the GFC!

Secondly, everything (stocks/bonds/ markets) is so deeply manipulated and in a bubble that failing to continue to do so will see a collapse. Bankers are having to use more and more “tools” to retain control, in addition to printing more and more to maintain the illusion.

The US Repo market has problems once again......Sept 2019 anyone?

No Govt anywhere can allow interest rates to rise.
They cannot afford it and all the suckers who have huge individual debt cannot afford it too, people can barely make debt payments now- look at all the mortgage forgiveness.

Expect the Fed to implement yield curve control via EVEN more QE. Operation twist possibly and intervene once again......otherwise markets will collapse massively and that cannot be allowed to happen. It would ruin the “wealth feel good effect”.

Hold your gold, it’s insurance against this madness, it’ll come back and if anything it’s ridiculously cheap at these prices - add to your position.

Golds done well as an inflation hedge historically......we may end up with currency collapse as the US $ is printed into Zimbabwe and we have hyperinflation globally.
368 days since the Fed said inflation was transitory.
 

Tallman

Member
Messages
740
368 days since the Fed said inflation was transitory.
Yes they were always going to say that…when the presses started rolling the die was cast inflation wise. The question is when interest rates will start to rise rapidly. It is very difficult to figure out which asset classes will do well in this inflationary cycle. Especially with a recession looming. Will gold be the one, will crypto become a haven? will commodities hold up if we do end up in a recession? Property is bound to fall, stocks as well. Bonds will suffer when interest rates go up.
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
7,836
Yes Wattie , i have a load of dollars to change up ..................and not the electronic ones
Just remember Loz -inflation is “transitory” and the same people who said so ( and created it through trillions in QE) are trusted to sort it all out!

As Gordon Ramsey would say “incredible”.

:lol2:
 

lozcb

Member
Messages
11,327
Just remember Loz -inflation is “transitory” and the same people who said so ( and created it through trillions in QE) are trusted to sort it all out!

As Gordon Ramsey would say “incredible”.

:lol2:
Im a small time operator Wattie , took some dollars as part payment for some consultancy in SS and want to make the most of it , been hanging on to it for a while changed half the other day at a good rate , saved the other half to see if it goes even higher
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
7,836
Im a small time operator Wattie , took some dollars as part payment for some consultancy in SS and want to make the most of it , been hanging on to it for a while changed half the other day at a good rate , saved the other half to see if it goes even higher
interesting init.
I don’t quite understand how increasing interest rates by huge amounts of 0.25% :lol2:for the next umpteen months is gonna tackle inflation at 7-12% ( admitted ).

how will interest rates at 3% stop inflation?

australia is already panicking…..25% of loans are apparently under stress.

Mmmmmn I wonder who lent them all that money on bugger all income.

interest rates go up- market tanks (wealth effect evaporates).
Property plunges.

Those responsible need strung up in their millionaire mansions.They got away with the GFC. They’ve made it worse.
 

lozcb

Member
Messages
11,327
interesting init.
I don’t quite understand how increasing interest rates by huge amounts of 0.25% :lol2:for the next umpteen months is gonna tackle inflation at 7-12% ( admitted ).

how will interest rates at 3% stop inflation?

australia is already panicking…..25% of loans are apparently under stress.

Mmmmmn I wonder who lent them all that money on bugger all income.

interest rates go up- market tanks (wealth effect evaporates).
Property plunges.

Those responsible need strung up in their millionaire mansions.They got away with the GFC. They’ve made it worse.
Meanwhile with all that panic and doom , I get to make an extra bit of money which has bought me a free Worcester Bosch 30Kw greenstar for nothing ...........Had I changed up 3 months ago I would have got 9% less ,
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
7,836
Gentlemen I’d be thinking about moving any invested Pension funds to cash.
The Fed is about to try to taper it’s Ponzi scheme.

It also believes that raising interest rates by 0.25-0.5% will assist in reducing a 7%plus inflation problem.

:lol2:
So we’ve had 1 interest rate rise of between 0.25-0.50% and markets are tanking. Apparently there’s another 2-4% to come......

FANG Stocks! FB -48%, AMZN -42%, NFLX -75%, GOOGL -25%)
Bitcoin/crypto seems correlated to the Nasdaq.


Keep an eye on your pension funds.
 
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Froddy

Member
Messages
857
Loz there's evidence of bearish RSI divergence in DXY (the US$ index) which could signal an imminent correction/weakening in the dollar. The problem is that GBP is very weak, with no signs of any reversal. Nevertheless, a weaker DXY would inevitably impact upon the exchange rate.

A weaker dollar, coupled with falling US Treasury yields and the high put:call ratio may be the perfect mix to send US stocks higher (and global stocks too) ...
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Wattie

Member
Messages
7,836
Loz there's evidence of bearish RSI divergence in DXY (the US$ index) which could signal an imminent correction/weakening in the dollar. The problem is that GBP is very weak, with no signs of any reversal. Nevertheless, a weaker DXY would inevitably impact upon the exchange rate.

A weaker dollar, coupled with falling US Treasury yields and the high put:call ratio may be the perfect mix to send US stocks higher (and global stocks too) ...
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I don’t see it that way Froddy. If the Fed is serious about raising rates (I don’t think they can) then the market tanks and the USD$ goes up.
If everything is weak (and I believe it’s all,
Globally ,a pile of ****) I’d hold USD$.
Time will tell.
 

Ewan

Member
Messages
5,378
I hope some of you took advantage of my Ideagen tip a while back. It went up from around £2.40 a share to about £3.50 a share a couple of days ago on the back of a £1.1B takeover bid.
Sorry to those that didn't, as it's too late to join the party now that the company is going into private ownership.
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
857
I don’t see it that way Froddy. If the Fed is serious about raising rates (I don’t think they can) then the market tanks and the USD$ goes up.
If everything is weak (and I believe it’s all,
Globally ,a pile of ****) I’d hold USD$.
Time will tell.
Chaps,

SHORT-TERM: it looks like there has been a DXY price failure at +3ATR on the daily chart (the uppermost blue line), with confirmed bearish RSI divergence (explained the other day). Will price revert to the mean (the thick purple line) imminently? No idea, but the probabilities favour a dollar correction. If that happens, stocks/crypto should regain their mojo into next week (and possibly beyond), but timing is everything in the markets and Big Money has a nasty habit of confusing the rhythm. Be aware if you’re thinking of going short here … 100050