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Froddy

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1,072
97933

Judging by the gold futures options chain (for expiry at the end of March), liquidity sits at $1,900 as there is more open interest at this level than at any other. The $2,000 strike has good OI too, but is a laggard by comparison. As things stand, I think it’s more likely that price will settle at $1,900 next week. The only fly in the ointment is that the $2,000 strike has seen good volume today, so this needs to be watched over the coming days. As I understand it (although Wattie will hopefully correct me if I’m wrong), spot gold is essentially a currency rather than a supply and demand commodity. If I’m right about this, then it is subject to the same hunt for liquidity as is employed by Big Money with any other financial instrument. So, in answer to your question as to why price has not rocketed, the reason is this: if the crowd bought ravenously at the top in the belief that gold was going to the moon on war news, Big Money will set out to dash as many hopes and dreams as possible at expiration of the futures contract. The bulls are trapped, and the big boys are licking their chops!
 

Froddy

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1,072
Gold futures contract settled today at $1,912. The likelihood is that, now, price will be released to do what it will …
 

stindig

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446
Crypto up to 2022 all time high, but still 30%+ down on Nov ‘21 peak.

It’s definitely benefiting from Ukraine use case - but current rise is mostly due to Terra blockchain founder’s decision to buy $10BN in Bitcoin!!
 

Froddy

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1,072
BTC volume profile shows that price needs to convert overhead supply into demand at this level: will those who bought here be glad to get out at break-even, or will they have the confidence to hold? Price will fail here unless demand exceeds supply. Price is at an inflection point … 98140
 

stindig

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446
The BTC balance on exchanges is dropping (see chart) and in early 2024 there is the next Bitcoin halving, which will reduce the new production of new Bitcoin by 50%


98164
 

stindig

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446
The institutions are in and buying in large volumes. So, after years of saying that Crypto is fake money and a big ponzi, they are racing to get in. This was Goldman Sachs' main homepage last week.



This is the number of BTC holders:
98176

And here is the stock to flow model, which has been very accurate until recently:
98177

Overall, I am very bullish. There are only 2 million Bitcoin left to mine between now and 2040.
 

Froddy

Member
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1,072
The institutions are in and buying in large volumes. So, after years of saying that Crypto is fake money and a big ponzi, they are racing to get in. This was Goldman Sachs' main homepage last week.



This is the number of BTC holders:
View attachment 98176

And here is the stock to flow model, which has been very accurate until recently:
View attachment 98177

Overall, I am very bullish. There are only 2 million Bitcoin left to mine between now and 2040.
Me too - I think we'll see another bull run in crypto and stocks later this year. I'm building a crypto (CRO) account myself, as I've taken a crypto.com visa debit card which has a loyalty scheme which pays 2% of the value of the transaction into your wallet in CRO. It was recommended to me, and seemed a good idea, so I signed up. The card itself is made of metal, and is very lovely!
 

stindig

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446
I have one of those too, but managed to get in early so I got the 3% tier at a bargain price. You should have told me that you were signing up - we could have got $25 each for referral
 

stindig

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446
Any thoughts on Avacta? They had a torrid time price-wise after they were late with their lateral flow test and then it not picking up Omicron, but their forthcoming preCISION cancer treatmentlooks game-changing
 

Froddy

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1,072
I think it looks promising, having successfully defended the lower broadening formation trendline. Note that last week was an inside candle (weekly chart below). An inside candle represents indecision. That indecision has been resolved to the upside this week. The initial targets for the bulls are now the highs of the preceding candles (which I've marked with yellow lines). Another nice feature is that price has entered a volume gap, with no real overhead supply resistance to stand in its way until c. 112. The only thing which is missing is good volume to confirm accumulation over past weeks. However I note that today's volume alone was over 5x the average (I assume on news??). I think this looks good for a punt ...


98180
 

Ewan

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6,757
This time last year Avacta shares were 2.40 whereas today they are 1.40. Is todays version of the company really worth that much less than last years version? Don't ask me! The valuations the markets put on companies is (more often than not) unfathomable to me.
 

Froddy

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1,072
Apologies for the delay, Stindig - I’m on holiday in the US and don’t have access to my PC to chart properly. However, I’ve done my best using my iPad. A few things stand out with SEE. First, it’s stuck within a trading range (shaded rectangular area) - it needs to break out to confirm any bullish trend. Secondly, it’s struggling to overcome overhead supply (marked). As with BTC a few weeks ago, price is at an inflection point - demand must overcome supply for price to rise and, at the moment, supply continues to exceed demand with shareholders getting out at break-even at this level. Note that price is perilously close to falling into a volume gap below. Thirdly, price is in a volatility squeeze (marked at the very bottom of the chart); this happens when the Bollinger Bands become trapped within the Keltner Channels. When price breaks free, the move is typically dramatic. So, there are 3 conditions to be met for this to look bullish but, if they come together, this stock should rise quickly. We need to see some (accumulation) volume too, to verify any breakout … 98907
 

lozcb

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12,308
Anyone care to explain last few days dollar shift , Ive got a few zero's to change up ...............how long is it worth holding on