Meanwhile. On the Ukrainian border.
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CatmanV2
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Totally unrelated to the current issues.
Oh, and remind me why EU membership is a good thing?
C
Saigon
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But at least they are attempting to get on the trains voluntarily, and the destinations are somewhat more acceptable. Non the less, it’s enough to make you cry if you are that way inclined, and some things taking place at present make me very sad. It puts our everyday problems in perspective, or at least it should do. It’s made me realise that I’m quite selfish, I suppose that is human nature and a natural response. As long as it’s not happening in my back yard I can live with it. But I’m not sure it will stay out of my back yard. I’m not sure if we should stand up to this and go for it ! Or sit back and allow this to continue, that’s my selfish sentiment. Or are we just delaying the enivetsble.
UlstermanAbroad
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Putin's inner circle has shrunk in the last several weeks, to two or three trusted, long-time close friends.
Anyone else who is granted a meeting with him, must first isolate for two weeks, because he fears Covid.
Also, he fears western intelligence organisations using a slow acting poison on one of his close more
vulnerable colleagues with the objective of poisoning Putin. This is why he is seen sitting at the opposite
end of long tables from guests and where possible conducts meetings by Zoomski.
I've been struggling to understand why the Russian military has got so bogged down, against less well
equipped forces. Over the course of the last fortnight, the answer has become clear.
Putin was so convinced that the Ukrainians would welcome 'their rescue' from western dominance by
the Russian army, that he felt able to use largely conscript units which are poorly led and badly trained.
Western doctrine is to use your best units to spearhead an offensive. Which is why most wars fought by
western armies in our lifetime have been successful. Sadly, occupations have been less successful.
While we have characterised the war in Ukraine as Putin's war and emphasised that our quarrel is with
Putin and not the Russian people. Putin has used his complete control of the Russian media to claim that
Russia is responding to help a brother nation, or what is really part of Russia, against western aggression.
Unfortunately, because Russians are so mindful of the catastrophic German offensives into Russia during
WWII (every Russian is taught about these in school) it may well be some time before the Russian people
force a change of leadership. Self sacrifice for the Motherland is indoctrinated into Russian children.
This is why Putin feels able to 'double down' and use ever more destructive weapons, to seek to break the
fighting will of the Ukrainian population. He has signalled his willingness to use chemical and biological
weapons in Ukraine and has already trialled their use in Syria. He used them successfully in Chechnya with
almost no western complaint.
I believe that Russia's false flag attack on a Belarus village close to the Ukrainian border today, will provide the
support of the Belarus people for the involvement of their armed forces on the Russian side.
According to press reports. This will happen tonight. (Friday night)
I would estimate that Belarus can put about two brigades into the ground war, equalling up to 10,000 soldiers.
Assuming they are all used to advance on and surround the Ukraine capital, I believe that the involvement of Belarus would very roughly double Putin's combat power in the north of Ukraine.
However, the Belarus Army is almost completely conscription based. So, the issues of low morale and poor fighting ability witnessed by Russian conscripts, will likely be evident in Belarus conscripts, because the Belarus Army has largely stuck to the Russian methodologies for organising it's Army and Air Force.
I don't believe that the Russian Army will or can change tactics at this point. We are likely to see ever greater use of stand-off weapons like mortars, artillery and MLRS (multiple use rocket systems) to terrorise the civilian populations, particularly in the cities. This has a two-fold benefit to the Russians. Ukrainian Army units must support civilians fleeing Russian attack, which means that they cannot be used to defend against Russian attacks. Driving civilians out of the cities, dramatically reduces the numbers of able bodied people available to resist a Russian advance.
If the introduction of Belarus units into the war fails to increase the pace of the Russian advances, then I predict that Putin will first use chemical weapons of increasing lethality, before resorting to biological weapons. Both of these have the advantages of dramatically increasing the levels of terror in the population and they usually quickly degrade after use, causing minimal risk to the soldiers who deploy them.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Russian forces mass at other points along NATO borders. Possibly pre-empting false flag operations involving the Russian oblast of Kaliningrad on the Baltic.
I believe that this is Putin's end-game. To again achieve an 'iron curtain' from the Baltic to the Black Sea and in name at least, resurrecting the old USSR as a balancing force to the West / NATO. This notion completely ignores the vast discrepancies in size and sophistication that exist between NATO and the CIS.
However, what Putin believes to be real and how this differs from reality, given his increasing and now extreme isolation, is very much open to conjecture.
The raison d'etre for nuclear deterrence was the concept of MAD. Mutually assured destruction. However, MAD is predicated upon the parties to a war being rational actors. That is, accepting that mutually assured destruction is an outcome that is an absolute anathema to all parties. Putin may be prepared to seek to grab a land corridor between northern Belarus and Kaliningrad, depending on the outcome of operations in Ukraine. He may well view the risk of the use of nuclear weapons in Europe as a risk worth running, to be able to permanently destabilise NATO by isolating Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. I believe NATO now considers this to be a real risk, which is why the UK doubled it's presence in Estonia last month, with other NATO allies also increasing their presence in the Baltic states.
I don't know whether there has been a Russian military build-up along it's borders with the Baltic states, Finland, Sweden or Norway. I haven't checked yet. I believe that while some Russian members of their equivalent of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff, may disagree vehemently with Putin on Ukraine, he will continue to have majority backing while he is seen to be succeeding. This forces him to 'double down' on the levels of terror used tactically. To make up for the poor calibre of troops committed to date.
All of which, when allied to Putin's ultimate ambitions, makes me more pessimistic than I was a fortnight ago regarding the likelihood of a nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia/CIS. Probably by another 10%+.
If you see the UK government start to call up it's military reserves. That would be the time to panic.
Especially if the government advises against panic
Anyone else who is granted a meeting with him, must first isolate for two weeks, because he fears Covid.
Also, he fears western intelligence organisations using a slow acting poison on one of his close more
vulnerable colleagues with the objective of poisoning Putin. This is why he is seen sitting at the opposite
end of long tables from guests and where possible conducts meetings by Zoomski.
I've been struggling to understand why the Russian military has got so bogged down, against less well
equipped forces. Over the course of the last fortnight, the answer has become clear.
Putin was so convinced that the Ukrainians would welcome 'their rescue' from western dominance by
the Russian army, that he felt able to use largely conscript units which are poorly led and badly trained.
Western doctrine is to use your best units to spearhead an offensive. Which is why most wars fought by
western armies in our lifetime have been successful. Sadly, occupations have been less successful.
While we have characterised the war in Ukraine as Putin's war and emphasised that our quarrel is with
Putin and not the Russian people. Putin has used his complete control of the Russian media to claim that
Russia is responding to help a brother nation, or what is really part of Russia, against western aggression.
Unfortunately, because Russians are so mindful of the catastrophic German offensives into Russia during
WWII (every Russian is taught about these in school) it may well be some time before the Russian people
force a change of leadership. Self sacrifice for the Motherland is indoctrinated into Russian children.
This is why Putin feels able to 'double down' and use ever more destructive weapons, to seek to break the
fighting will of the Ukrainian population. He has signalled his willingness to use chemical and biological
weapons in Ukraine and has already trialled their use in Syria. He used them successfully in Chechnya with
almost no western complaint.
I believe that Russia's false flag attack on a Belarus village close to the Ukrainian border today, will provide the
support of the Belarus people for the involvement of their armed forces on the Russian side.
According to press reports. This will happen tonight. (Friday night)
I would estimate that Belarus can put about two brigades into the ground war, equalling up to 10,000 soldiers.
Assuming they are all used to advance on and surround the Ukraine capital, I believe that the involvement of Belarus would very roughly double Putin's combat power in the north of Ukraine.
However, the Belarus Army is almost completely conscription based. So, the issues of low morale and poor fighting ability witnessed by Russian conscripts, will likely be evident in Belarus conscripts, because the Belarus Army has largely stuck to the Russian methodologies for organising it's Army and Air Force.
I don't believe that the Russian Army will or can change tactics at this point. We are likely to see ever greater use of stand-off weapons like mortars, artillery and MLRS (multiple use rocket systems) to terrorise the civilian populations, particularly in the cities. This has a two-fold benefit to the Russians. Ukrainian Army units must support civilians fleeing Russian attack, which means that they cannot be used to defend against Russian attacks. Driving civilians out of the cities, dramatically reduces the numbers of able bodied people available to resist a Russian advance.
If the introduction of Belarus units into the war fails to increase the pace of the Russian advances, then I predict that Putin will first use chemical weapons of increasing lethality, before resorting to biological weapons. Both of these have the advantages of dramatically increasing the levels of terror in the population and they usually quickly degrade after use, causing minimal risk to the soldiers who deploy them.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Russian forces mass at other points along NATO borders. Possibly pre-empting false flag operations involving the Russian oblast of Kaliningrad on the Baltic.
I believe that this is Putin's end-game. To again achieve an 'iron curtain' from the Baltic to the Black Sea and in name at least, resurrecting the old USSR as a balancing force to the West / NATO. This notion completely ignores the vast discrepancies in size and sophistication that exist between NATO and the CIS.
However, what Putin believes to be real and how this differs from reality, given his increasing and now extreme isolation, is very much open to conjecture.
The raison d'etre for nuclear deterrence was the concept of MAD. Mutually assured destruction. However, MAD is predicated upon the parties to a war being rational actors. That is, accepting that mutually assured destruction is an outcome that is an absolute anathema to all parties. Putin may be prepared to seek to grab a land corridor between northern Belarus and Kaliningrad, depending on the outcome of operations in Ukraine. He may well view the risk of the use of nuclear weapons in Europe as a risk worth running, to be able to permanently destabilise NATO by isolating Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. I believe NATO now considers this to be a real risk, which is why the UK doubled it's presence in Estonia last month, with other NATO allies also increasing their presence in the Baltic states.
I don't know whether there has been a Russian military build-up along it's borders with the Baltic states, Finland, Sweden or Norway. I haven't checked yet. I believe that while some Russian members of their equivalent of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff, may disagree vehemently with Putin on Ukraine, he will continue to have majority backing while he is seen to be succeeding. This forces him to 'double down' on the levels of terror used tactically. To make up for the poor calibre of troops committed to date.
All of which, when allied to Putin's ultimate ambitions, makes me more pessimistic than I was a fortnight ago regarding the likelihood of a nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia/CIS. Probably by another 10%+.
If you see the UK government start to call up it's military reserves. That would be the time to panic.
Especially if the government advises against panic
UlstermanAbroad
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As you said Wack. An excellent piece. Not only was Professor Goodwin an infantry officer. He was an infantry officer in an elite unit, where soldiering skills were more highly valued than the ability to parade on ceremonial duties.
He described in detail the central ethos of officer education at Sandhurst. The British Army's 'officer factory'.
The ethos is summed up in one word. Service. Every officer is taught the importance of being of service to the soldiers in one's command. Our soldiers are trained to be competent, because being able to fight effectively and win, is the way that you are most likely to see your loved ones again. There is a lot of psychology involved in successfully leading soldiers, but it all stems from the word service.
Goodwin didn't dip into just how tough infantry fighting is and always has been. The mission is simple. To close with and kill the enemy. Which is why the British Army still issues bayonets to it's infantry units. Because at times, you will be involved in hand to hand fighting and you will need your bayonet to kill an enemy, when you might not have time to change an empty magazine for a fresh one for example. British infantry units have had to 'fix bayonets' in every conflict since WWII.
Its impossible to understand how arduous soldiering is and especially infantry soldiering, if you haven't done it yourself. Which is one reason why I believe it ought to be a prerequisite for standing for a seat in The House Of Commons or being appointed to The Lords, that you first complete at least a year in the Armed Forces. So that, before you send young men and women into harms way, you have some experience of what you're asking them to do and you do your level best to always give them the best tools to get the job done.
Anyways. Enough said.
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UlstermanAbroad
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Col (Rtd) Alex Vindman was interviewed a few hours ago and came out with a cr@cker, when asked about the best course of action for America to take now.
He quoted Churchill, 'You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing. After they have tried everything else.'
However, this quote and it's variations are often mistakenly attributed to Churchill.
He quoted Churchill, 'You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing. After they have tried everything else.'
However, this quote and it's variations are often mistakenly attributed to Churchill.
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D Walker
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All good information / insight from Ulsterman.
I have until Feb 23 on my regular reserve to serve.
As you say Putin is testing NATO’s resolve.
I really think we should start preparing more robustly (and publicly) for what I believe is inevitable in the not to distant future.
I have until Feb 23 on my regular reserve to serve.
As you say Putin is testing NATO’s resolve.
I really think we should start preparing more robustly (and publicly) for what I believe is inevitable in the not to distant future.
midlifecrisis
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Not that I watch much ITV, if at all, but I have seen a Compare the Market advert since the start of the invasion.
Sanctions or prior knowledge?
Sanctions or prior knowledge?
ScottH
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It was that, reported somewhere quite early on
CatmanV2
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It was not reported by BB news. What are the press reports you refer to?
D Walker
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I have also read it.
Ukrainian soldiers near Belarus border reported planes entering their airspace(from Belarus) then turning to attack a town just inside Belarus border.
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Meanwhile, press reports in Russia and China tell of American use of chemical weapons in Ukraine. Paving the way for Russia to use chemical weapons in Ukraine.
The battleground appears to be as much in lies and misinformation as much as in the streets, the fields, the homes and the skies of Ukraine.
The battleground appears to be as much in lies and misinformation as much as in the streets, the fields, the homes and the skies of Ukraine.
UlstermanAbroad
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I think you'll find that where units of all three branches can be moved quietly to an increased readiness state and moved closer to their planned NATO area of operations, this is being done.
UlstermanAbroad
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Apologies. It was well past my bedtime and I was in dire need of my beauty sleep, so I forgot to include the source.
D Walker
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Yep...total lies to justify an action ( which in itself is unjustifiable)
I’m sat wondering how long we can justify not getting involved.
Especially if the outcome is going to be the same........
P5Nij
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Russian blogger living in a bubble....
I know the population are being fed BS on state TV but..... oh dear, how sad, never mind.
I know the population are being fed BS on state TV but..... oh dear, how sad, never mind.
Indeed I read "Kyiv has accused Russia of firing at a settlement in Belarus near the border with Ukraine in “false flag” attempt to draw Minsk into joining Moscow’s unprovoked invasion of its neighbor. "
but this is not a press report for the actual firing, is it?
D Walker
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Maybe not. But I’m sure the Belarusians /Russians will manufacture one to suit their aim. Then it will be true.
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