Shares to watch

[GTVGEOFF]

That's great news - so good to hear, and fingers crossed for all ...

@GTVGEOFF that VWAP re-test entry still awaits and I haven't forgotten you - it's your choice whether to jump in now or wait. The VWAP will continue to rise if price rises so it's about optimum entry point rather than whether to enter or not:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ye7nUSZ9/

For those following Gilead (GILD), it formed an inside bar on the April and May monthly charts, so price is contracting into a triangle range (see below - "1" denotes inside bar):

https://www.tradingview.com/x/MBe0aL1g/

It will break out eventually but, for the moment, there's nothing going on. Watch for a CONFIRMED break, at the close of this month's candle (at the end of June), of either end of last month's bar to decide which way it's going. Here's the daily chart, which shows that it's a bit of a mess - don't get chopped up!

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0N3OCWqn/

Good luck all ...

Froddy, you are a true gentleman, thanks for thinking of me. I saw a around couple of weeks ago they were about 7.6/7.8 and thought I would go, in then something happened domestically and I completely forgot to ring my broker ever since then they have climbed so I have missed out. TBH the markets are so false now I consider it gambling not investing, I am being very cautious but will still keep looking. Take care out there.

 

[Wattie]

Wattie In the coming weeks i will need to transfer some more dosh from my US dollar account to the UK account , can you have a word with the fed and prime them ready so i get a favourable exchange rate again ............................its been a bit stagnant of late ................................alternatively get Donald tweeting again .....that usually does the trick

Fyi
Sterling to take a pasting if UK seeks no extension for EU trade talks: Reuters poll
Sterling will lose recent gains against the dollar and weaken further if Britain does not ask for an extension to its Brexit transition period by a June 30 deadline to allow more time for talks on a trade deal with the EU, a Reuters poll found.

Read in Reuters UK: https://apple.news/ARPbSr5_oTZa_GVXdFF7DPg

 

[lozcb]

Fyi
Sterling to take a pasting if UK seeks no extension for EU trade talks: Reuters poll
Sterling will lose recent gains against the dollar and weaken further if Britain does not ask for an extension to its Brexit transition period by a June 30 deadline to allow more time for talks on a trade deal with the EU, a Reuters poll found.

Read in Reuters UK: https://apple.news/ARPbSr5_oTZa_GVXdFF7DPg

I'll be ready and waiting

 

[daverichardson]

to do what exactly
elucidate please for us morons

 

[D Walker]

to do what exactly
elucidate please for us morons

Cash in his dollars I expect

 

[Froddy]

Chaps,

The TRIN (an internal market indicator) has closed tonight well below 0.6, at 0.48.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qyhbAE7S/

Under normal circumstances (and this is obviously not normal), I'd take this as a high probability indicator that the markets might fall tomorrow.

If you're long any stocks which are directionally correlated to the markets, please be careful. I'm not saying it will happen - just watch out.

No doubt we'll rally tomorrow and you'll wonder what on earth I was on about!!

 

[Wattie]

Chaps,

The TRIN (an internal market indicator) has closed tonight well below 0.6, at 0.48.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/qyhbAE7S/

Under normal circumstances (and this is obviously not normal), I'd take this as a high probability indicator that the markets might fall tomorrow.

If you're long any stocks which are directionally correlated to the markets, please be careful. I'm not saying it will happen - just watch out.

No doubt we'll rally tomorrow and you'll wonder what on earth I was on about!!

Crazy isn’t it- retail investors leading the charge via “Robinhood”. Airline stocks rallied yesterday!!
The Fed has removed all “moral hazard” and central banks just keep creating cash from thin air.
Millions losing their jobs, markets think its positive.
What could go wrong?

 

[Froddy]

Crazy isn’t it- retail investors leading the charge via “Robinhood”. Airline stocks rallied yesterday!!
The Fed has removed all “moral hazard” and central banks just keep creating cash from thin air.
Millions losing their jobs, markets think its positive.
What could go wrong?

Wattie, I'm with you ..

Fundamentally I don't think the markets think it's positive - it's all about liquidity. If you were a market-maker, and could see lots of people trying to pick a top in the market, what would you do? You'd wipe them out by taking the market higher.

And then when those people gave up and went long, what would you do? You'd wipe them out again by selling hard. Normally, that would be the next phase from here ...

Only problem is that there is an intervenor in this natural cycle - the Fed, as you say.

If your job was to short the market, would you dare? Nope ...

So the path of least resistance is "up".

The crowd is no longer just the crowd. Every trader is now confused by what they're seeing - nothing makes sense anymore ...

 

[Wattie]

W

Wattie, I'm with you ..

Fundamentally I don't think the markets think it's positive - it's all about liquidity. If you were a market-maker, and could see lots of people trying to pick a top in the market, what would you do? You'd wipe them out by taking the market higher.

And then when those people gave up and went long, what would you do? You'd wipe them out again by selling hard. Normally, that would be the next phase from here ...

Only problem is that there is an intervenor in this natural cycle - the Fed, as you say.

If your job was to short the market, would you dare? Nope ...

So the path of least resistance is "up".

The crowd is no longer just the crowd. Every trader is now confused by what they're seeing - nothing makes sense anymore ...

Feds liquidity momentum is everything.



Worth a read, central banks are trapped by what they’ve created. Any cessation of loose monetary policy will see massive losses. It really beggars belief.
If printing money is a good ‘stimulous’ thing why does it only ever happen when something bad goes down? Central banks would surely get a far better result if they did it when times are good according to their logic!!!. After all if it works when times are bad it would work even better when times are good.
This isn’t sorted by a long shot.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Lozzer]

Who said AML were finished? They're up 120+% since I last looked.

 

[BennyD]

And could be wiped out again in a day. Who knows what might happen if people profit take and dump stock.

 

[rockits]

Agreed. It was one of the top 5 shorted stocks when driven down to 30p a few weeks back. Only needs the shorters back and it will be back down there again! Bit of a false rally IMHO this one.

 

[Delmonte]

Buying gold Bullion bars:

Sorry didn’t want to start a new thread just for this, but:

I know plenty of legit places I can buy bullion. I don’t need it insuring or storing (except insurance for delivery) I can do that myself. But just to ensure I’m not paying over the odds, what is the current typical premium over spot price, for buying 1oz bars? Is +10% about right? NB I appreciate buying bigger, gets cheaper per oz.

Thx

 

[Froddy]

I really hope Aston pulls through all of this - I'd be heartbroken if they went under.

My take on the share price, for what it's worth, is this (so you should do the opposite):

It's in a very strong downtrend, and trying to catch a falling knife is generally not a good idea. It was in a downward spiral even before the pandemic, and car sales have plummeted since then.

Set against that, and ignoring the fundamentals for a moment, what strikes me is the volume of share trading which has taken place over the last 2 weeks (weekly chart below, each candle representing 1 week). There's a lot of interest right now - huge in fact when compared to every preceding week - is this accumulation? Big Money can't hide from volume analysis - only time will tell ...

https://www.tradingview.com/x/KjaWiV7j/

And, on the monthly chart, we have a hammer candle (a classic reversal signal) setting up - price must close above this at the end of the month to confirm the signal.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xH47ns30/

Probably worth a punt if you truly accept the risk - the downside momentum cannot be ignored, but that volume is pretty striking to me.

If you decide to go for it, here are your short-term fibonacci extension targets:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/gvFVAEvD/

Where's @MaseratiGent these days? Would be great to hear what he makes of all of this ...

 

[lozcb]

Cash in his dollars I expect

Yes unlike most on here ,unfortunately I get paid in $US ,which means I have to ,or it's wise to ,take advantage of the exchange rate as and when it fluctuates , often on a month's salary it can make a difference of up to £800 if you not savvi

 

[Wattie]

Just when you think things cant get more corrupt the BLS manage to create 2,500,000 new jobs whilst the US was in lockdown!

Employment Situation Summary - 2023 M08 Results

www.bls.gov

The data was total BS and even the BLS admitted "However, there was also a large number of workers who were classified as employed but absent from work. As was the case in March and April, household survey interviewers were instructed to classify employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus- related business closures as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent that not all such workers were so classified. BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue. If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis)"

Of course, markets surged on the fake data so "according to usual practice, the data from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions are taken to reclassify survey responses."

In other words in an election year, rather than correct the misinformation, the data will stand which means Trump has started to falsify the economic news already to ensure re-election and the fake message that the US is the greatest economy in the universe (its a ponzi banana republic) must be resurrected.

 

[AT3200AC]

I have to admit something seems off to me about the markets. DOW and FTSE are both powering on and I would love to know what bit of information is going to bring this all crashing back down. Or is the entire western worlds simply glossing over reality.....

 

[rockits]

Certainly a weird unexpected end to a week of rising markets...all false/fake of course.

Crazy that the Dow is nearly upto pre covid levels and not far.off record highs. The FTSE hit 6500 somehow!

I wonder if we will see the Dow hit 30000 and the FTSE 7500-8000 on the march though to November.US Elections. That is one heck of a bubble to burst. Maybe the 2020 winter of discontent will go down in the history books.

 

[GTVGEOFF]

Certainly a weird unexpected end to a week of rising markets...all false/fake of course.

Crazy that the Dow is nearly upto pre covid levels and not far.off record highs. The FTSE hit 6500 somehow!

I wonder if we will see the Dow hit 30000 and the FTSE 7500-8000 on the march though to November.US Elections. That is one heck of a bubble to burst. Maybe the 2020 winter of discontent will go down in the history books.

Yes strange, I thought I had mostly invested in fairly solid companies, the FTSE now back to about were it was pre crisis yet my portfolios have a fair way to go to return to there previous levels. But if my shares gain a bit more I am seriously considering cashing the lot in.

 

[rockits]

Yes strange, I thought I had mostly invested in fairly solid companies, the FTSE now back to about were it was pre crisis yet my portfolios have a fair way to go to return to there previous levels. But if my shares gain a bit more I am seriously considering cashing the lot in.

Agreed. I'm getting ready to dump the lot at a drop of a hat. I don't feel it will be tomorrow it seems as there is so much pressure preventing it at the moment. Or should I say propping it up. However, it could be any day. Or never....or next year....or the year after that. I have stopped trying to guess!