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[Froddy]

Can’t be Aud$ +ve.

China cites Australia’s ‘cold war mindset’ as economic dialogue suspended

China’s National Development and Reform Commission said on Thursday that all activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue had been ‘indefinitely suspended’.

www.scmp.com

Yes, that's not good news for the currency but, then again, bad news is good news as we know!

Price has been bouncing up and down a downward trending channel since 29th April (1 hour chart below), and there are so many other patterns forming that it's pretty mind-boggling trying to work out where this is going.

It will be interesting to see whether the 74% historical probability of a downside move next week plays out, or whether this year will be one of the 26 percenters. I've accepted the risk, and am appropriately position sized.

Will this channel hold, or will it break soon (in either direction)? Who knows!

 

[foibles]

Janet Yellen did the USD a favour yesterday talking up interest rate rises.
She then backtracked. (Never gonna happen)
Aud down as a result.

I suspect that events will conspire to force the hands of many central bankers. I don't know what its like on the ground in UK and USA at present, but here in Aus there is so much evidence that you'd think would force our Reserve Bank to take a cautious approach on rates... But 'nah' let's be cavalier and boldly predict no rate rise (from the heady heights of 0.1!!!!) for the next 3 years.

Surely i am missing something....

I've just come back from a week in adelaide and kangaroo island, where a number of hotel proprietors are telling me of record occupancy. They're increasing their rack rates by 10%. The owner of a B&B in Gippsland tells me he's just been offered double for his business than what he was offered in 2019...and he's knocked it back.

We have decreasing employment and rising participation rates. We have on shoring of previously off shored work due to covid impacts in India and the need to make supply chains more robust. The building manager where i live is working round the clock because she refuses to accept that cleaning staff are now getting 20% more elsewhere. For a nation that doesn't manufacture that much and is heavily geared as a service economy... This doesn't bode well. I personally see signs of inflation everywhere. Whether its wage inflation or price inflation.. Each begets the other. Contracting rates and consulting rates in my own industry are up 10 to 20%....on pre Covid levels.

I don't know how long central bankers can keep trotting out this line. I wonder if beneath the surface they're expecting inflation and rate rises... And their tactic is verbal suppression of the inevitable...

As with so much else.... Logic left the room a long time ago.

 

[Wattie]

I suspect that events will conspire to force the hands of many central bankers. I don't know what its like on the ground in UK and USA at present, but here in Aus there is so much evidence that you'd think would force our Reserve Bank to take a cautious approach on rates... But 'nah' let's be cavalier and boldly predict no rate rise (from the heady heights of 0.1!!!!) for the next 3 years.

Surely i am missing something....

I've just come back from a week in adelaide and kangaroo island, where a number of hotel proprietors are telling me of record occupancy. They're increasing their rack rates by 10%. The owner of a B&B in Gippsland tells me he's just been offered double for his business than what he was offered in 2019...and he's knocked it back.

We have decreasing employment and rising participation rates. We have on shoring of previously off shored work due to covid impacts in India and the need to make supply chains more robust. The building manager where i live is working round the clock because she refuses to accept that cleaning staff are now getting 20% more elsewhere. For a nation that doesn't manufacture that much and is heavily geared as a service economy... This doesn't bode well. I personally see signs of inflation everywhere. Whether its wage inflation or price inflation.. Each begets the other. Contracting rates and consulting rates in my own industry are up 10 to 20%....on pre Covid levels.

I don't know how long central bankers can keep trotting out this line. I wonder if beneath the surface they're expecting inflation and rate rises... And their tactic is verbal suppression of the inevitable...

As with so much else.... Logic left the room a long time ago.

It’s a Global Ponzi scheme.
Stop printing money it all collapses.
raise interest rates and govts can’t afford all the debt they’ve accumulated (and neither can private individuals)...it all collapses.

A banker will never admit there is an issue right up till the point - it all collapses.

These idiots extend and pretend, until reality comes knocking, which it will.
Bankers are the orchestra, still playing, whilst the Titanic sinks.

 

[foibles]

It’s a Global Ponzi scheme.
Stop printing money it all collapses.
raise interest rates and govts can’t afford all the debt they’ve accumulated (and neither can private individuals)...it all collapses.

A banker will never admit there is an issue right up till the point it all collapses.

These idiots extend and pretend, until reality comes knocking, which it will.

But sadly, the greater the excess, the more likely it is that more people will be affected, and quite adversely so.

Don't get me wrong... I'm no snowflake. To quote flying high... 'i say let em crash'. But it may be so widespread that it becomes quite predictable... 'capitalise the profits and socialise the losses'. That's actually my working assumption... The privileged (take the zuckerberg example above) will exit stage left minutes before the house of cards collapses. The collective masses of greedy imbeciles will demand political action. And the pollies... Interested only in their own reelection, will punish the taxpayer with incremental taxes to cover and... Socialise the losses.

 

[foibles]

With house prices smashing records week in week out... Its quite laughable that central bankers suggest they dont want to raise ratee for fear of dampening their respective housing markets.

Hello? Hello!

The very thing so much of western society needs is an 'orchestrated housing crash'... So that kids in their early 20s don't need to sign up to 60 year mortgages.

 

[Wattie]

But sadly, the greater the excess, the more likely it is that more people will be affected, and quite adversely so.

Don't get me wrong... I'm no snowflake. To quote flying high... 'i say let em crash'. But it may be so widespread that it becomes quite predictable... 'capitalise the profits and socialise the losses'. That's actually my working assumption... The privileged (take the zuckerberg example above) will exit stage left minutes before the house of cards collapses. The collective masses of greedy imbeciles will demand political action. And the pollies... Interested only in their own reelection, will punish the taxpayer with incremental taxes to cover and... Socialise the losses.

The excess has been building since the GFC. Nothing was solved, it was printed over and the insolvent bailed out with QE to infinity.
The excesses in the system are at extraordinary levels and COVID has compounded them.

The COVID Solution- print more.... trillions more.

Last week bankers were touting out gbp figures of 5,6,7%!
Jesus we should have a pandemic each year as they make it seem to be a good thing.
No mention whatsoever of all the debt or jobs lost.......nope no inflation either. Don’t get me started on house prices.

These clowns were responsible for the first crisis which they never saw coming.

Quite why anyone with any degree of nous trusts them to admit to or deal with the next one they are creating is beyond me.

(it’s impossible to now repay this debt....but it can be inflated away.....central bank digital currency introduced....cash gone....huge tax grabs on your assets to pay for it....)

 

[foibles]

On a lighter note.... Whilst doing appallingly badly at my part time hobbyjob of day trading.... I'm witnessing how some traders are doing well by manipulating certain stocks. The price trends and fluctuations seem to have little to do with anything other than the motive of one or few individuals to drive down a stock price, with the aim of buying low.

Almost the direct opposite of the wiseowl trader emails above (which put an irrational rocket under a share price).

You've got to have deep pockets and brass balls for this.. And an appetite for risk... But it really works well.

Best example i can give is a newly listed company... Asx200 ticker MKL... Aka Mighty Kingdom games publisher. I've been watching this closely the moment it listed... And bar the first few hours of trade, the stock has faced significant selling pressure. Which really made no economic sense. Why would investors wish to dump their IPO stock within days at a continually declining price? Either significant news was impacting the company within hours of listing, which would demand a notice to the market... Or someone was stitching up the price. The sell orders got progressively bigger as the buyer accumulated stock from panicked small players, and just kept adding stock to the sell order, and ratcheting the sell price down. It reached a crescendo yesterday when the stock got absolutely smashed to 33% below its IPO price of a fortnight ago. For me, that was the signal to buy (the price had capitulated through 3 or 4 price levels all at once). I'm not here to say i did nicely from this... Merely to say that it is possible to detect clear price manipulation and to throw ones hat in the ring. Whomever the buyers were at 20c last night and selling at 25c today, they've done very nicely..

And there is a similar tactic at play with stock PTX. Deliberate price pressure, forcing it to capitulate by 10% today.. And i suspect it may jump tomorrow. All fun and games for these market manipulators.

I'm better off steering clear. It's akin to wanting to buy a beach property.. So you first go out and buy a dreadnought, park it a mile offshore, level the cannons, and wait for the entire community to flee. Once the exodus is complete... You buy the whole beach and have your dreadnought sail away.

And just hope like **** that someone doesn't park a USS Nimitz in the shallows...

 

[Wattie]

I’ll watch PTX tomorrow.

 

[foibles]

The excess has been building since the GFC. Nothing was solved, it was printed over and the insolvent bailed out with QE to infinity.
The excesses in the system are at extraordinary levels and COVID has compounded them.

The COVID Solution- print more.... trillions more.

Last week bankers were touting out gbp figures of 5,6,7%!
Jesus we should have a pandemic each year as they make it seem to be a good thing.
No mention whatsoever of all the debt or jobs lost.......nope no inflation either. Don’t get me started on house prices.

These clowns were responsible for the first crisis which they never saw coming.

Quite why anyone with any degree of nous trusts them to admit to or deal with the next one they are creating is beyond me.

(it’s impossible to now repay this debt....but it can be inflated away.....central bank digital currency introduced....cash gone....huge tax grabs on your assets to pay for it....)

Jesus we should have a pandemic each year as they make it seem to be a good thing.

Ha... I've been remarking that very same thing to many people.

Public servants basically took zero leave last year so the accumulated leave liabilities there alone are staggering. Contractors all pocketed an extra 10 to 20% as they could work remotely from beachside air bnb whilst invoicing. Cash grabs, handouts, stimulus packages out the wazoo.... I basically dont know anyone who is nominally financially worse off. But that is nominal vs real. And i suspect over time the two will diverge more and more.

In saying that.... Killing off a considerable proportion of your elderly citizens has significant economic benefits... Pensions cease... Medical costs plummet... And you lose a remarkably unproductive demographic. I sometimes wonder if the likes of bolsanaro, orban, morawieki and abe / suga aren't quietly pleased with how things may pan out for their countries...

 

[Wattie]

Ha... I've been remarking that very same thing to many people.

Public servants basically took zero leave last year so the accumulated leave liabilities there alone are staggering. Contractors all pocketed an extra 10 to 20% as they could work remotely from beachside air bnb whilst invoicing. Cash grabs, handouts, stimulus packages out the wazoo.... I basically dont know anyone who is nominally financially worse off. But that is nominal vs real. And i suspect over time the two will diverge more and more.

In saying that.... Killing off a considerable proportion of your elderly citizens has significant economic benefits... Pensions cease... Medical costs plummet... And you lose a remarkably unproductive demographic. I sometimes wonder if the likes of bolsanaro, orban, morawieki and abe / suga aren't quietly pleased with how things may pan out for their countries...

Social Security Sees Slowdown in Retiree Rolls Amid Covid Deaths

The rate of growth in retired Americans who collect Social Security has slowed down sharply, and the drop may be due in part to the disproportionate number of deaths from Covid-19 among the elderly.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Froddy]

Chaps,

A low-risk, high probability idea for you in a UK stock (Unilever, ULVR). I discovered this as the pattern is exactly the same in the US stock (UL).

The share price has a tendency to reverse from its lows in March, and has done so consistently in recent years (each arrow at the bottom of the chart points to a March reversal). So, historically, the stock is seasonally strong over the coming 3 to 6 months.

Upside targets are marked at 4,500 and 4,900.

No guarantees, obviously ...

Weekly chart here, showing the bigger picture:

View attachment 83005

Daily chart here (showing the current broadening formation):

View attachment 83006

Chaps,

If you took this trade, so far it's working out as planned with an 8.64% return to date (or just over 1% per week). I am still holding this position, and will let you know if I bail.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PXnhW3qS/

After a period of consolidation, price looks like it's breaking out to the upside for the next leg higher. There looks to be a fresh volatility squeeze on the daily chart too (below):

https://www.tradingview.com/x/dpAF2WIH/

There's likely to be resistance at the 200 SMA (the orange line) which presently sits at c. 4400. It would be sensible to begin to scale out if we get there ...

 

[Wattie]

This is the economic equivalent of your heavily indebted neighbour turning up in a Rolls Royce he’s borrowed even more to acquire and saying things are just fine.

BS.
The great exit: central banks line up to taper emergency stimulus
The Bank of England's decision on Thursday to slow the pace of its bond-buying makes it the second central bank from a G7 economy to begin the slow exit from pandemic-era money-printing stimulus schemes.

Read in Reuters UK: https://apple.news/AsaR4Ve-pTyKn8kdPT0DFew

 

[nigw]

Chaps,

If you took this trade, so far it's working out as planned with an 8.64% return to date (or just over 1% per week). I am still holding this position, and will let you know if I bail.

View attachment 85103

https://www.tradingview.com/x/PXnhW3qS/

After a period of consolidation, price looks like it's breaking out to the upside for the next leg higher. There looks to be a fresh volatility squeeze on the daily chart too (below):
View attachment 85104

https://www.tradingview.com/x/dpAF2WIH/

There's likely to be resistance at the 200 SMA (the orange line) which presently sits at c. 4400. It would be sensible to begin to scale out if we get there ...

I bought Unilever at around 38.50p a couple of months ago and sold yesterday at 42.68p... looks like I jumped too early based on your analysis.

 

[Wattie]

I bought Unilever at around 38.50p a couple of months ago and sold yesterday at 42.68p... looks like I jumped too early based on your analysis.

Never wrong to take profit!

 

[philw696]

Never wrong to take profit!

Exactly my policy being self employed

 

[Froddy]

I bought Unilever at around 38.50p a couple of months ago and sold yesterday at 42.68p... looks like I jumped too early based on your analysis.

Actually, you've exited sensibly at a key technical level and next week I may wish I'd done the same!

Price has reverted to the mean on the monthly chart (the thick purple line):

https://www.tradingview.com/x/P0RbsFPQ/

The bears would view this as a sell signal.

Nobody ever went broke taking profits!

 

[nigw]

Actually, you've exited sensibly at a key technical level and next week I may wish I'd done the same!

Price has reverted to the mean on the monthly chart (the thick purple line):

View attachment 85111

https://www.tradingview.com/x/P0RbsFPQ/

The bears would view this as a sell signal.

Nobody ever went broke taking profits!

Thanks Froddy. I bought Kingfisher at the same time and they’ve followed a similar increase, but thinking of hanging on to them a while longer.

 

[Froddy]

Thanks Froddy. I bought Kingfisher at the same time and they’ve followed a similar increase, but thinking of hanging on to them a while longer.

Kingfisher looks strong! It's at the 1.618 fibonacci extension of the last swing low on the weekly chart- this is a technically significant extension level:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ejfkhbCZ/

And it's at +3 ATR from the mean (the ATRs are depicted by the wavy blue lines called "Keltner Channels", and the mean is the purple line, the 21EMA) on the weekly chart.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/y6UjG7JH/

As price ALWAYS reverts to the mean (even in an uptrend), there is the risk of a pullback - NOT saying it's imminent but it will happen at some point, so be prepared - this is completely normal.

 

[Wattie]

Great US jobs report

That diabolical news ought to send stocks to new highs.
American recovery my ars3.....more QE please!!!!!!!

Ponzi.

The disappointing jobs report makes it clear that paying people not to work is dampening what should be a stronger jobs market. We need a comprehensive approach to dealing with our workforce issues and the very real threat unfilled positions poses to our economic recovery from the pandemic. One step policymakers should take now is ending the $300 weekly supplemental unemployment benefit. Based on the Chamber’s analysis, the $300 benefit results in approximately one in four recipients taking home more in unemployment than they earned working.”

You couldn’t make it up,

 

[Froddy]

Great US jobs report

That diabolical news ought to send stocks to new highs.
American recovery my ars3.....more QE please!!!!!!!

Ponzi.

Yes, it was a real shocker - and rather destroyed my AUD/USD hopes, dreams and aspirations! Hey ho ...