Next Stop Recession?

[Wattie]

It wasn't quite there in 92, but it was still insanely high figures.

I honestly don't think the Government would let things get that far in the current age; with the levels of consumer debt and the record high borrowings against houses that fundamentally aren't worth it - it would end up bankrupting the country at an unimaginable level.

I think this sums it up,

Given that we’ve arrived at the can they kicked down the road In the GFC, people still believe that those responsible wouldn’t let it happen again -even though that’s exactly what they’ve done on a scale hundreds times worse!

 

[Ebenezer]

15% was around 1989. By 92 they were a mere 7%

Yes you're right - bought in 1990 as the rates started to drop but it was mandness. Took almost 6 years for our house to actual come out of negative equity, although I'm sure rates hit 15 momentarily again once I'd bought.

Eb

 

[midlifecrisis]

BoE have just gone up to 1.25%

UK interest rates raised to 1.25% by Bank of England

The Bank of England increases rates to 1.25% and forecasts inflation could surpass 11% this year.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[DLax69]

i think what is becoming apparent is that the experts don't know anything; the markets are pretty disconnected from anything people thought drove performance; digital currency equals tulip bulbs; and fixed-interest debt is still good. Also, when your government kills off 1MM people due to mismanagement of a public health crisis, there are plenty of jobs.

My grandfather, Italian immigrant who actually came to the US to fight the fascists in WWII (and was therefore shipped to the Pacific theater, as they weren't gonna send an Italian national back to Europe) had the philosophy that world leaders decided to throw a war whenever there were economic or other pressures due to overpopulation, etc. For whatever that's worth.

 

[midlifecrisis]

i think what is becoming apparent is that the experts don't know anything; the markets are pretty disconnected from anything people thought drove performance; digital currency equals tulip bulbs; and fixed-interest debt is still good. Also, when your government kills off 1MM people due to mismanagement of a public health crisis, there are plenty of jobs.

My grandfather, Italian immigrant who actually came to the US to fight the fascists in WWII (and was therefore shipped to the Pacific theater, as they weren't gonna send an Italian national back to Europe) had the philosophy that world leaders decided to throw a war whenever there were economic or other pressures due to overpopulation, etc. For whatever that's worth.

Does your granddad also believe in lizard people and the illuminati?

 

[philw696]

Summed up by Private Eye.

 

[P5Nij]

Summed up by Private Eye.
View attachment 101755

As a non striking train driver that made me chuckle Phil .

(We're not all in the RMT, most of their members are signalling, engineering, platform and clerical staff, and we're not all on strike, not by a long chalk!)

My biggest fear is talking ourselves into a recession, it seems it's something we're rather good at in the UK, sadly.

 

[DLax69]

Does your granddad also believe in lizard people and the illuminati?

No...little green men and Yeti, though!

 

[RoaryRati]

Norman Lamont and John Major were sat in a room listening to the news on a radio as interest rates went up to I think 15%
They were powerless as things unfolded
Happy daze

Sadly they were still negative as inflation was around ( I can't remember) 2% more - with it's hurrendous debt the government may quite like high inflation

 

[philw696]

Bitcoin value slumps below $20,000 in cryptocurrencies turmoil

Digital asset slides to lowest level since November 2020 as rate rises increase pressure on markets

www.theguardian.com

 

[Simon1963]

We’re in Bali at the moment and I think I’ve found a place in the world that I could quite easily settle. You can live like a king here for £1500 per month including renting a villa with a pool. Pieces of land are cheap as are building costs. The people here don’t earn very much but everyone seems happy and content with their lot. Yes I know it pi55es down for 6 months of the year but at least it’s warm rain.

 

[sionie1]

We’re in Bali at the moment and I think I’ve found a place in the world that I could quite easily settle. You can live like a king here for £1500 per month including renting a villa with a pool. Pieces of land are cheap as are building costs. The people here don’t earn very much but everyone seems happy and content with their lot. Yes I know it pi55es down for 6 months of the year but at least it’s warm rain.

I’m there in 5 weeks, is it busy, much open?

 

[Devonboy]

The tide is going out........we will find out who is wearing shorts.....as Warren Buffet might say

 

[Felonious Crud]

We’re in Bali at the moment and I think I’ve found a place in the world that I could quite easily settle. You can live like a king here for £1500 per month including renting a villa with a pool. Pieces of land are cheap as are building costs. The people here don’t earn very much but everyone seems happy and content with their lot. Yes I know it pi55es down for 6 months of the year but at least it’s warm rain.

I’m there in 5 weeks, is it busy, much open?

Also interested in how open things are. We’d planned a trip for next month but cancelled it all when Asian restrictions were still horrible. Booked Costa Rica instead.

 

[Simon1963]

It’s very quiet but most restaurants etc are open again. I was speaking to a guy yesterday and he said that it should really pick up next month onwards. Only restriction is the usual covid jabs and you have a temperature check on entry. Also mandatory health insurance with covid cover. We booked a fast track through the airport for about £50 and they whizz you through in 10 minutes to baggage. Well worth it as it can take 1.5 to 2 hours when busy.

 

[Simon1963]

Forgot to add that face mask in public is mandatory but very relaxed where we are.

 

[DLax69]

The tide is going out........we will find out who is wearing shorts.....as Warren Buffet might say

...what cheeses me off is this feels like a case of us being talked into a recession by folks with designs on midterm elections in the USA, at least. Self-fulfilling prophecies solely for political gain.

 

[CatmanV2]

...what cheeses me off is this feels like a case of us being talked into a recession by folks with designs on midterm elections in the USA, at least. Self-fulfilling prophecies solely for political gain.

Certainly feels like the recession is being talked up. Not sure I agree by whom

C

 

[DLax69]

Fair enough; the media isn't much help.

 

[GeoffCapes]

Certainly feels like the recession is being talked up. Not sure I agree by whom

C

I don't think it is being talked up, I think people are avoiding the question. We were in recession before Covid lockdowns hit, all the stimulus from then isn't going to make the fact that the economy was failing then and it is now.
When in 2008 we decided to print money to avoid a recession just means that the recession, when it does hit, will be far worse than normal (economies go in cycles as we all know).

Add rampant inflation and the whole thing is an over inflated bubble ready to go pop!

Strikes from train drivers (nothing new there) and now teachers and nurses just adds to things. Give them a pay rise, it makes inflation worse. Don't give them one, more strikes.

Another winter of discontent ahead?