Next Stop Recession?

Felonious Crud

Felonious Crud

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conaero said:
Oy, hands off I’ve been salivating over that one for more than a decade, it’s mine, all mine I tell you!
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It's permanently shuttered, isn't it? I reckon you could move in and the owner wouldn't find out for years. Keep your head down, it'd take your Mrs a while to track you down, too.
 
Wattie

Wattie

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philw696

philw696

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conaero said:
Oy, hands off I’ve been salivating over that one for more than a decade, it’s mine, all mine I tell you!
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Still plenty of them for sale over here and exceptional value really.
It's just the running costs especially maintaining stonework and roofs with good artisans.
Approaching our 60's we don't want to much space and with in the next 10 years will be getting something smaller.
 
mjheathcote

mjheathcote

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philw696 said:
Still plenty of them for sale over here and exceptional value really.
It's just the running costs especially maintaining stonework and roofs with good artisans.
Approaching our 60's we don't want to much space and with in the next 10 years will be getting something smaller.
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The Sister-in-law in Bordeaux lives in a big apartment in a lovely Chateaux. Open the curtains and vineyards etc.
However after about 5 years they are hoping to get out.
The maintenance costs are horrific, and having stayed there a few times, the plumbing isn't the best and having to tip toe around for fear of disturbing the neighbours, not for me!
 
Devonboy

Devonboy

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Betting on the end of the world is rarely the right trade BUT you can see the effect of the liquidity drain. Bitcoin, wow, slumping, int rates forecasts are being revised up and we have real inflation. We probably need a recession of some sort, to clear out the zombie businesses and drive change but two other interesting dynamics for me:

  1. The 'right' strategy for the past 20 years has been leveraging into tangible assets. Will that continue to work, and how many have overextended themselves? The wrong strategy has been to save and pay off debt. Is now the time for the prudent to get their time in the sun?
  2. The Eurozone. The liquidity has been used to smooth yields for countries like Greece & Italy - those yields are now rising and gapping out to other members - given their finances this could be interesting/scary and have implications for the wider Euro project.

I am not as sure as others that inflation will be as easy to manage or as temporary as the press like to print. It's here, it's rising, and the key difference today is that it is spreading into wages - creating that viscous cycle.
 
GeoffCapes

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Devonboy said:
Betting on the end of the world is rarely the right trade BUT you can see the effect of the liquidity drain. Bitcoin, wow, slumping, int rates forecasts are being revised up and we have real inflation. We probably need a recession of some sort, to clear out the zombie businesses and drive change but two other interesting dynamics for me:

  1. The 'right' strategy for the past 20 years has been leveraging into tangible assets. Will that continue to work, and how many have overextended themselves? The wrong strategy has been to save and pay off debt. Is now the time for the prudent to get their time in the sun?
  2. The Eurozone. The liquidity has been used to smooth yields for countries like Greece & Italy - those yields are now rising and gapping out to other members - given their finances this could be interesting/scary and have implications for the wider Euro project.
I am not as sure as others that inflation will be as easy to manage or as temporary as the press like to print. It's here, it's rising, and the key difference today is that it is spreading into wages - creating that viscous cycle.
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The thing with Italy (in particular) is that personal debt is very low, especially compared with most of Europe and the UK in particular.
It seems we like to finance ourselves to the hilt and take the massive hit when we do get recessions. Whereas our Italian friends shouldn't be so badly hit as they've not got car finance and credit card debt coming out of their ears.

Interests rates are going up, that's a give, but how high do they need to go to stave off rampant inflation?

Where there's panic, there's opportunity.
 
will-w

will-w

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We've all seen this coming for a while now - the housing market for example just isn't capable of continuing the way it has been.

We bought our house just under 3 years ago and it has increased in value by £120k!

We have 2 years left on our fix and I am hoping the interest rates have stabilised by then, as a 2% rise would add £450 a month to our repayments.
 
williamsmix

williamsmix

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GeoffCapes said:
The thing with Italy (in particular) is that personal debt is very low, especially compared with most of Europe and the UK in particular.
It seems we like to finance ourselves to the hilt and take the massive hit when we do get recessions. Whereas our Italian friends shouldn't be so badly hit as they've not got car finance and credit card debt coming out of their ears.

Interests rates are going up, that's a give, but how high do they need to go to stave off rampant inflation?

Where there's panic, there's opportunity.
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If the BoE doesn’t raise rates to control the £ / US$ fx rate we can expect another jump in fuel prices at the pump with systemic effects through the economy. The US raised there’s by 0.75% yesterday and we’ve just announced 0.25% …
 
GeoffCapes

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williamsmix said:
If the BoE doesn’t raise rates to control the £ / US$ fx rate we can expect another jump in fuel prices at the pump with systemic effects through the economy. The US raised there’s by 0.75% yesterday and we’ve just announced 0.25% …
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That's a point that a lot have missed. The fact that you only get US$1.21 to the pound at the moment means anything bought in USD is so much more expensive.
I can remember when you could get almost 2 dollars to the pound!
 
will-w

will-w

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Ebenezer said:
Don't wish to alarm you but I remember when rates hit 15% in 1992...

I hope we don't end up anywhere near there

Eb
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It wasn't quite there in 92, but it was still insanely high figures.

I honestly don't think the Government would let things get that far in the current age; with the levels of consumer debt and the record high borrowings against houses that fundamentally aren't worth it - it would end up bankrupting the country at an unimaginable level.
 
Wattie

Wattie

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will-w said:
It wasn't quite there in 92, but it was still insanely high figures.

I honestly don't think the Government would let things get that far in the current age; with the levels of consumer debt and the record high borrowings against houses that fundamentally aren't worth it - it would end up bankrupting the country at an unimaginable level.
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So how would they stop it?
 
daverichardson

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Norman Lamont and John Major were sat in a room listening to the news on a radio as interest rates went up to I think 15%
They were powerless as things unfolded
Happy daze
 
Nayf

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D Walker said:
Great stuff. All those overpriced cars will come down.
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I’m not so sure about that. In fact, it could go the opposite way if 2008 is a precedent. There will be a few distress sales but a 1990s style bust is unlikely.
 
williamsmix

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daverichardson said:
Norman Lamont and John Major were sat in a room listening to the news on a radio as interest rates went up to I think 15%
They were powerless as things unfolded
Happy daze
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If I recall correctly we were trying to track the Deutschmark in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, and we had to let that go when people were posting their keys through the letter box and walking! 3 on the MPC wanted to see +0.5% today and I think they were correct. If we ratchet up quickly perhaps we can get the pain over sooner(?)!
 
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