Meanwhile. On the Ukrainian border.

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1,383
Interesting developments involving Lithuania and Kaliningrad. Or Konigsburg,
if you're a Prussian member of the House of Windsor. Possibly another 'special military operation'
in the works.
There seems to be an EU embargo which involves concrete. (and other goods obviously)
Stuff which normally goes back and forth between one part of Russia and another, through Lithuania.
Which for the kids at the back. Is an EU and NATO member.
So, the Russians are getting upset and are threatening the use of military force.
The BBC in Kaliningrad managed to interview a lone fisherman and 'a concrete businessman'
from central casting for 90's Italian mob characters. Enlightening it was not.
Ukraine became a tragedy from inception. Kaliningrad is shaping up to be a farce.
 

GeoffCapes

Centenary Club
Messages
13,229
Interesting developments involving Lithuania and Kaliningrad. Or Konigsburg,
if you're a Prussian member of the House of Windsor. Possibly another 'special military operation'
in the works.
There seems to be an EU embargo which involves concrete. (and other goods obviously)
Stuff which normally goes back and forth between one part of Russia and another, through Lithuania.
Which for the kids at the back. Is an EU and NATO member.
So, the Russians are getting upset and are threatening the use of military force.
The BBC in Kaliningrad managed to interview a lone fisherman and 'a concrete businessman'
from central casting for 90's Italian mob characters. Enlightening it was not.
Ukraine became a tragedy from inception. Kaliningrad is shaping up to be a farce.
Be interesting to see how this plays out. I would imagine those in Kaliningrad have greater access to Western news than those in mainland Russia (guessing of course) so will be far more aware of the war and how it is going.
 

Oneball

Member
Messages
8,751
Kaliningrad is quite different to Ukraine. Its Russia and I’d have thought any blockade by the EU on goods transiting through Lithuania is in violation of some sort of treaty. Putin wouldn’t even need a flimsy excuse he’d have a real justification.
 

CatmanV2

Member
Messages
42,777
Kaliningrad is quite different to Ukraine. Its Russia and I’d have thought any blockade by the EU on goods transiting through Lithuania is in violation of some sort of treaty. Putin wouldn’t even need a flimsy excuse he’d have a real justification.
Surely that's the wrong way round? EU sanctions against Russia are preventing movement of goods from / to the EU (Lithuania) from / to Russia (Kaliningrad)

But I'm probably very wrong

C
 

Oneball

Member
Messages
8,751
Surely that's the wrong way round? EU sanctions against Russia are preventing movement of goods from / to the EU (Lithuania) from / to Russia (Kaliningrad)

But I'm probably very wrong

C
Kaliningrad is Russia’s only year round port on that coast, I believe it remained as part of Russia after the collapse of the USSR for that reason. So Russia ships good into Kaliningrad by boat then moves them to “mainland” Russia by truck which necessitates travelling through Lithuania. In effect TIR.
 
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1,383
It could be a non-story, to divert attention from Ukraine. So I paid it only passing attention.
So far as I understand it. There is an embargo of certain goods from Russia, as well as
an embargo on selling certain goods to Russia. It changes frequently, as new items are added,
so I don't know the exact ins and outs. See what I did there? ;)
The port is important and is the base for Russia's Baltic Fleet. It probably has more then it's share
of all kinds of missiles, air and ground assets also. Russia invited the EU to take over Kaliningrad because of
the expense of supporting it, several times since 1990. The EU always refused because it didn't want a few million Russians to 'suddenly appear' within the EU.
Kaliningrad is of more strategic value now, if Sweden and Finland join NATO. If it didn't have a substantial naval presence, the Baltic would be NATO controlled.
I believe goods imported through Kaliningrad are allowed to be 'exported' to Russia across Lithuania without hindrance. No doubt with some restrictions. Arms, etc. This is what the Russians are unhappy about. On the face of it.
As usual with the Russians though. There is the game you see. And the game(s) you don't see. Nothing is ever straightforward.
If the Russians decide to move against NATO countries, it will be to seize a corridor along the roughly 30kms border between Poland and Lithuania. Calculating that NATO won't go to war for less than a few hundred square kms of land, that without the rail link, most of the public might think is of little importance.
But such a move would cut off the link by land of the Baltic States from the rest of NATO.
If this is going to happen, there will have to be movement of significant numbers of troops
to the north west of Belarus. Which is where NATO satellites will be focused, until the situation with Russia cools.
So, based on recent experiences. If such troop movements are seen. They'll be reported in the press.
Personally, at that point, I would be going to the supermarket and stocking up with everything I might need,
if all services in the country were to stop, for whatever reason.
Because if Russia were to attempt to grab another land corridor. This time in two NATO countries. NATO will have no option but to respond in kind.
 
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5,758
Interesting interview on World at One BBC R4 with a lady politician from Lithuania about Kaliningrad.
She said that for the past 15 years Russia have been stockpiling weapons and other necessaries for war in that area. She praised UK stance and less so for Germany and France repeating it is now a confrontation between democracy and dictatorship for the whole of Europe.Dangerous times ahead but my own view is NATO should openly prepare for possible confrontation.
I do not want a war but I do not want what is happening now in Ukraine and appeasement is not the right course of action
Other opinions are valid................
 

CatmanV2

Member
Messages
42,777
Kaliningrad is Russia’s only year round port on that coast, I believe it remained as part of Russia after the collapse of the USSR for that reason. So Russia ships good into Kaliningrad by boat then moves them to “mainland” Russia by truck which necessitates travelling through Lithuania. In effect TIR.
I guess it depends on where the good that are being shipped to Russian originate and what the original arrangement was

C
 
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Oneball

Member
Messages
8,751
I guess it depends on where the good that are being shipped to Russian originate and what the original arrangement was

C
It wouldn’t actually be TIR as nothing is being exported/imported but there must be a similar treaty in place so you don’t have to go through carnet and a bond for every truck load of concrete.