Are you worried yet.

[mjheathcote]

There’s a reason Italy got hit so hard and particularly the north, but you won’t hear it in the mainstream media. From around 2010 Chinese companies started buying Italian fashion houses, not least because the Chinese middle classes so loved the Italian look. They needed to keep the coveted Made in Italy label for their output so, instead of moving factories to China, they moved Chinese workers to Lombardy and Tuscany (centred on Milan and Florence). Google it - New Yorker magazine said there was as many as 20000 in Prato, a tiny town in Tuscany. That was in 2013. There’s as many as 200000 in total in Italy today - possibly a lot more. And the Chinese fashion industry is based guess where? Yep, Wuhan - home of both the companies doing the buying and the cheap workers being shipped to work in sweatshops in Italy. Many would have returned home for Chinese New Year January 25th, just as the virus was ramping up in their home city, and returned with the virus soon after. As stated, you won’t hear this in the mainstream media - and I wonder how long this post will last. So we may not be in for an Italian scale crisis after all - that was due to very particular reasons.

I've also heard this from an English teacher that teaches English to a lot of Chinese in the UK.

 

[GeoffCapes]

There’s a reason Italy got hit so hard and particularly the north, but you won’t hear it in the mainstream media. From around 2010 Chinese companies started buying Italian fashion houses, not least because the Chinese middle classes so loved the Italian look. They needed to keep the coveted Made in Italy label for their output so, instead of moving factories to China, they moved Chinese workers to Lombardy and Tuscany (centred on Milan and Florence). Google it - New Yorker magazine said there was as many as 20000 in Prato, a tiny town in Tuscany. That was in 2013. There’s as many as 200000 in total in Italy today - possibly a lot more. And the Chinese fashion industry is based guess where? Yep, Wuhan - home of both the companies doing the buying and the cheap workers being shipped to work in sweatshops in Italy. Many would have returned home for Chinese New Year January 25th, just as the virus was ramping up in their home city, and returned with the virus soon after. As stated, you won’t hear this in the mainstream media - and I wonder how long this post will last. So we may not be in for an Italian scale crisis after all - that was due to very particular reasons.

Is there a similar story in Madrid and northern Spain? As they’re rapidly catching up!

 

[iainw]

There’s a reason Italy got hit so hard and particularly the north, but you won’t hear it in the mainstream media. From around 2010 Chinese companies started buying Italian fashion houses, not least because the Chinese middle classes so loved the Italian look. They needed to keep the coveted Made in Italy label for their output so, instead of moving factories to China, they moved Chinese workers to Lombardy and Tuscany (centred on Milan and Florence). Google it - New Yorker magazine said there was as many as 20000 in Prato, a tiny town in Tuscany. That was in 2013. There’s as many as 200000 in total in Italy today - possibly a lot more. And the Chinese fashion industry is based guess where? Yep, Wuhan - home of both the companies doing the buying and the cheap workers being shipped to work in sweatshops in Italy. Many would have returned home for Chinese New Year January 25th, just as the virus was ramping up in their home city, and returned with the virus soon after. As stated, you won’t hear this in the mainstream media - and I wonder how long this post will last. So we may not be in for an Italian scale crisis after all - that was due to very particular reasons.

UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'

Exclusive: Public Health England document seen by Guardian says four in five ‘expected’ to contract virus

www.theguardian.com

 

[allandwf]

^ I can see how the culture of weekend promenading, and families all going out together to eat, can be an issue where this is involved. Hopefully it will all get back to normal soon,and there will be no cultural knock on effects.

 

[outrun]

The Brexit thread reached over 7,000 posts. I wonder if this thread might beat that. I hope not.

All joking aside, i have worked in this kind of science for many years and this moment is petrifying. I know, for sure, that science will find a vaccine. I also know that we will work out which antivirals can help however it’s the time that this will take that concerns me. There is a lot of misinformation and stiff upper lip going on. Now should be the time to think for yourself and try not to contribute to pressure on the healthcare and emergency services. It’s not a joke, it’s not predictable and it could well be terrible in many many ways.

Please do not think that carrying on regardless is wise. We will get through this but its not going to be easy. If you, or those close to you are in danger because of underlying health issues, please don’t take unnecessary risks. If you can support others you know or in your community, please do it.

On a more upbeat note, we are a resilient and resourceful bunch and we will get past this.

 

[Wattie]

Surely if you don’t test, then you don’t know the numbers infected.....or stop the spread as some may not take isolation seriously.
How can you accurately calculate a death rate if the sum of the parts is not known?
An accurate total, may make the death rate even less.......

I’m assuming that some of those that died may have had “ mild corona virus infection” symptoms, that developed into something deadly.

Another thought, this “herd immunity” thing.
How is the Government gonna know its reached optimum infection to enforce the isolation thing without testing and having accurate numbers?

 

[Wattie]

Me: Do I get company sickpay if I fall ill with Coronavirus?
Gaffer:No
Me: Well i will just have to attend then. What are you going to do when the whole workforce is ill?
Gaffer: That's when our insurance kicks in
Tossers....

If the insurance company is still solvent.

 

[Wattie]

UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'

Exclusive: Public Health England document seen by Guardian says four in five ‘expected’ to contract virus

www.theguardian.com

“The NHS employs about 1.2 million people.Nov 15, 2018”.....hopefully it’s now around another 20million more to deal with this.


Coronavirus: PHE leaked document says '7.9 million could be hospitalised'

Coronavirus outbreak could last until next spring and hospitalise 7.9 million, says leaked Public Health England document

The figures in the leaked document used "reasonable worse-case scenario figures".

news.sky.com

 

[MarkMas]

There’s a reason Italy got hit so hard and particularly the north, but you won’t hear it in the mainstream media. From around 2010 Chinese companies started buying Italian fashion houses, not least because the Chinese middle classes so loved the Italian look. They needed to keep the coveted Made in Italy label for their output so, instead of moving factories to China, they moved Chinese workers to Lombardy and Tuscany (centred on Milan and Florence). Google it - New Yorker magazine said there was as many as 20000 in Prato, a tiny town in Tuscany. That was in 2013. There’s as many as 200000 in total in Italy today - possibly a lot more. And the Chinese fashion industry is based guess where? Yep, Wuhan - home of both the companies doing the buying and the cheap workers being shipped to work in sweatshops in Italy. Many would have returned home for Chinese New Year January 25th, just as the virus was ramping up in their home city, and returned with the virus soon after. As stated, you won’t hear this in the mainstream media - and I wonder how long this post will last. So we may not be in for an Italian scale crisis after all - that was due to very particular reasons.

I love how the conspiracy subtext is embedded in this comment.
"You won't hear it in the mainstream media" - but I read it in wold-famous and highly prestigious New Yorker - circulation 1.2 million, founded 1925
"I wonder how long this post will last" - as I suspect the SM mods of being part of the global conspiracy to silence me

 

[MarkMas]

Another thought, this “herd immunity” thing.
How is the Government gonna know its reached optimum infection to enforce the isolation thing without testing and having accurate numbers?

The 'herd immunity' thing is not policy or a target, that needs to be 'optimised' it is merely a by-product of a policy that is about tolerating a certain level of spread so that the general population get the disease at a rate that allows the vulnerable people to be treated but which also avoids a false suppression, followed by a second wave (which is what you get with isolation, according to some models). See my earlier post, plus this amended diagram:

https://www.sportsmaserati.com/index.php?threads/are-you-worried-yet.30503/page-80#post-754521



And this policy is not some sort of mad whim by Boris Johnson (or a plot to murder pensioners, or a choice between 'funding Brexit' or 'funding the NHS', FFS). It is a policy based on the medical and scientific advice of officials who should know what they are talking about. It may not work, of course, in which case it may look like a terrible mistake. We will know in about 3 years from now (although whatever happens there will always be disputes about who did the right thing.)

And I go back to my point that testing is not 'free', it has financial cost, but also puts demands on the health service, and encourages people who are most likely to be ill to congregate.

 

[Wattie]

The 'herd immunity' thing is not policy or a target, that needs to be 'optimised' it is merely a by-product of a policy that is about tolerating a certain level of spread so that the general population get the disease at a rate that allows the vulnerable people to be treated but which also avoids a false suppression, followed by a second wave (which is what you get with isolation, according to some models). See my earlier post, plus this amended diagram:

https://www.sportsmaserati.com/index.php?threads/are-you-worried-yet.30503/page-80#post-754521

View attachment 66883

And this policy is not some sort of mad whim by Boris Johnson (or a plot to murder pensioners, or a choice between 'funding Brexit' or 'funding the NHS', FFS). It is a policy based on the medical and scientific advice of officials who should know what they are talking about. It may not work, of course, in which case it may look like a terrible mistake. We will know in about 3 years from now (although whatever happens there will always be disputes about who did the right thing.)

And I go back to my point that testing is not 'free', it has financial cost, but also puts demands on the health service, and encourages people who are most likely to be ill to congregate.

Okay but
"that is about tolerating a certain level of spread so that the general population get the disease at a rate that allows the vulnerable people to be treated but which also avoids a false suppression"

How can you possibly know the level of spread if you aren't testing to calculate the numbers?

Surely you cant just guess?

By the way, Australia has ruled out herd immunity.

 

[lozcb]

The 'herd immunity' thing is not policy or a target, that needs to be 'optimised' it is merely a by-product of a policy that is about tolerating a certain level of spread so that the general population get the disease at a rate that allows the vulnerable people to be treated but which also avoids a false suppression, followed by a second wave (which is what you get with isolation, according to some models). See my earlier post, plus this amended diagram:

https://www.sportsmaserati.com/index.php?threads/are-you-worried-yet.30503/page-80#post-754521

View attachment 66883

And this policy is not some sort of mad whim by Boris Johnson (or a plot to murder pensioners, or a choice between 'funding Brexit' or 'funding the NHS', FFS). It is a policy based on the medical and scientific advice of officials who should know what they are talking about. It may not work, of course, in which case it may look like a terrible mistake. We will know in about 3 years from now (although whatever happens there will always be disputes about who did the right thing.)

And I go back to my point that testing is not 'free', it has financial cost, but also puts demands on the health service, and encourages people who are most likely to be ill to congregate.

Does that mean we are about to see Wuhan get its second wave sometime soon ,

 

[MarkMas]

Okay but
"that is about tolerating a certain level of spread so that the general population get the disease at a rate that allows the vulnerable people to be treated but which also avoids a false suppression"

How can you possibly know the level of spread if you aren't testing to calculate the numbers?

Surely you cant just guess?

By the way, Australia has ruled out herd immunity.

I'm not denying that the numbers would be better if you tested everybody every day. But I'm saying there is a cost to this.
So they have to do some extrapolation, based on actual tests, admissions, etc. Epidemiologists have some good maths on this - if you read the annual NHS report of flu you will see. But in the end I think the feedback process is going to have to be as seemingly crude as 'if hospital admissions growth rate hits level 'x' we will close all the pubs'.
People always want certainty. But they can't have it.

I don't know what you mean by 'Australia has ruled out herd immunity'. Do you mean as a concept - because it really does exist. Or do you mean as a policy - well, that's easy to do since nobody ever had it as a policy in the first place.
Press: "Minister do you rule out herd immunity as a policy to combating the virus"
Minister: "Yes, obviously."
Press: "Do you rule out astrology as a policy to combating the virus"
Minister: "Yes, obviously."
Press: "What about prayer?"
Minister: "Look, I'm a busy man...."

 

[Wattie]

I'm not denying that the numbers would be better if you tested everybody every day. But I'm saying there is a cost to this.
So they have to do some extrapolation, based on actual tests, admissions, etc. Epidemiologists have some good maths on this - if you read the annual NHS report of flu you will see. But in the end I think the feedback process is going to have to be as seemingly crude as 'if hospital admissions growth rate hits level 'x' we will close all the pubs'.
People always want certainty. But they can't have it.

I don't know what you mean by 'Australia has ruled out herd immunity'. Do you mean as a concept - because it really does exist. Or do you mean as a policy - well, that's easy to do since nobody ever had it as a policy in the first place.
Press: "Minister do you rule out herd immunity as a policy to combating the virus"
Minister: "Yes, obviously."
Press: "Do you rule out astrology as a policy to combating the virus"
Minister: "Yes, obviously."
Press: "What about prayer?"
Minister: "Look, I'm a busy man...."

Seems a flawed choice to me then.....lies damned lies and flawed statistics which it seems many will end up as a result!

Oz has ruled it out in relation to Cv.

 

[lozcb]

I'm not denying that the numbers would be better if you tested everybody every day. But I'm saying there is a cost to this.
So they have to do some extrapolation, based on actual tests, admissions, etc. Epidemiologists have some good maths on this - if you read the annual NHS report of flu you will see. But in the end I think the feedback process is going to have to be as seemingly crude as 'if hospital admissions growth rate hits level 'x' we will close all the pubs'.
People always want certainty. But they can't have it.

I don't know what you mean by 'Australia has ruled out herd immunity'. Do you mean as a concept - because it really does exist. Or do you mean as a policy - well, that's easy to do since nobody ever had it as a policy in the first place.
Press: "Minister do you rule out herd immunity as a policy to combating the virus"
Minister: "Yes, obviously."
Press: "Do you rule out astrology as a policy to combating the virus"
Minister: "Yes, obviously."
Press: "What about prayer?"
Minister: "Look, I'm a busy man...."

Press: What's that on your head ?
Minister : A Tin foil hat of course ,stupid question to ask

 

[MarkMas]

Does that mean we are about to see Wuhan get its second wave sometime soon ,

Not just Wuhan, but more widespread across China, I fear. Perfect containment and eradication is great. But Imperfect containment gets things under control locally, but means that as containment measures are eased there is a huge pool of people who have had no exposure and so have no resistance. I don't know about 'soon', but at some point. If the UK has got this right, my expectation is that the rest of the world will see big waves of new infections for (I guess) a couple of years, each of which will have to be rapidly contained, whereas in the UK it will just be another kind of seasonal flu, a little worse than the current base level.

One problem of this may be that the UK will be seen as a country with a residual pool of infection, and so a source of transmission, whereas other countries will claim eradication and thus 'purity', until each next outbreak.

 

[MarkMas]

Seems a flawed choice to me then.....lies damned lies and flawed statistics which it seems many will end up as a result!

Oz has ruled it out in relation to Cv.

Again, "Oz has ruled it out in relation to Cv."
There is this complete 'straw man' that says "the UK is relying on herd immunity, and herd immunity can't work, so the UK is wrong"
But the UK is NOT 'relying on herd immunity'.
Sheesh!

 

[Wattie]

W

Again, "Oz has ruled it out in relation to Cv."
There is this complete 'straw man' that says "the UK is relying on herd immunity, and herd immunity can't work, so the UK is wrong"
But the UK is NOT 'relying on herd immunity'.
Sheesh!

well that the strategy isn’t it? I think I’m fairly well informed on this- have I got it wrong?

I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire | William Hanage

Vulnerable people should not be exposed to Covid-19 right now in the service of a hypothetical future, says William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard

www.theguardian.com

 

[MarkMas]

Seems a flawed choice to me then.....lies damned lies and flawed statistics which it seems many will end up as a result!
.....

Press: "Is all the data on this comprehensive and accurate?"
Minister: "Of course not, it is a fluid situation, and the data is very hard to collect."
Press: "So you are basically guessing, then."
Minister: "No, we are trying to make the best choices we can, based on the information we have."
Press: "So you are basically lying, then."
Minister: "Jeeez! Why would you think that?"
Press: "Because all politicians just lie all the time."
Minister: "Right, that's it, I quit. You sort it out then, I don't need this sh1t."

 

[lozcb]

Press: "Is all the data on this comprehensive and accurate?"
Minister: "Of course not, it is a fluid situation, and the data is very hard to collect."
Press: "So you are basically guessing, then."
Minister: "No, we are trying to make the best choices we can, based on the information we have."
Press: "So you are basically lying, then."
Minister: "Jeeez! Why would you think that?"
Press: "Because all politicians just lie all the time."
Minister: "Right, that's it, I quit. You sort it out then, I don't need this sh1t."

Press : can I borrow your tin foil hat
Minister : Feck off , it's everyman for himself