Are you worried yet.

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Silvercat

Silvercat

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foibles said:
You can't draw truly accurate conclusions from this sort of data....however they are meaningful guides. I'd firstly suggest not confusing 'having CoVid' with 'running a test' or 'attributing death to CoVid'. If you just look at the last measure (fatalities...either as a raw number or as a percentile... a la 'deaths per thousand (million) etc' bear in mind the many significant variables;

  • Some nations include deaths from hospitals only, others include nursing homes, whilst others offer a broader base
  • Many hospital systems allow a single 'cause of death' to be reported. So how do you record whether the person died from CoVid, or from their underlying hypertension, or obesity, etc etc
  • Many political systems may deliberately intervene - as they want statistics to defend and support their own policies (whether to lock down, whether to open up, etc). More authoritarian governments get better 'compliance'
  • Many hospital systems may intentionally misrepresent - believe you me there's gold in them rivers (i.e funding attached to matters like CoVid). Hospitals will often behave in the manner that accrues greatest funding
  • Many individual health practitioners may even deliberately misrepresent (for their own political reasons, or above funding reasons) or misrecord data
There are also issues of competency, capability, capacity, etc etc etc. Policy is probably the biggest variable (whether you record deaths only in hospitals, or - in the case of North Korea - you simply tell your citizens that they must not catch or die from CoVid, which has been remarkably successful, and Kim is to be applauded) - as is capability (I'm sure in Afghanistan it may be problematic to record accurate statistics).

And - even the issue of timing (dead people inside houses during lockdown).

So....you can use these data sources to show trends (as I alluded to the other day, a clear trend between northern and southern hemisphere fatalities).....but don't expect them to be masterful records of actual events.

On the topic of difference / parallels between UK and Germany...ahem...the rest of the world does not see a huge disparity in your population density. My guess is Germany is twice the size, but with 55% more people? Given either end of these extremes - say India at one end and Australia the other - I'd see density, land mass, population, - even ethnic composition as vaguely similar between the two.

But it does seem that there is a material difference between fatality rates (rates, not raw numbers) in Germany vs the UK, and it is curious as to why that may be. As some have pointed out, UK should be in a more desirable position as it has less porous borders. Those porous borders worked well early on for Adolf.....but in theory should not help in a pandemic.
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Spot on summary!...all you can really take from the data is the trends and that's it because there are so many variables and therefore so many holes in the data. What I find even more curious though is given that we are supposed to be past the peak now, why the need for 17 Nightingale hospitals which arent being used? Suggests to me that when restrictions do eventually start to be lifted, will there be worse yet to come? I really hope not.....
 
CatmanV2

CatmanV2

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Silvercat said:
Spot on summary!...all you can really take from the data is the trends and that's it because there are so many variables and therefore so many holes in the data. What I find even more curious though is given that we are supposed to be past the peak now, why the need for 17 Nightingale hospitals which arent being used? Suggests to me that when restrictions do eventually start to be lifted, will there be worse yet to come? I really hope not.....
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philw696 said:
This is well worth a read and a big difference between the German PM and the UK one.
www.theguardian.com

Germany's Covid-19 expert: 'For many, I'm the evil guy crippling the economy'

Germany’s leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten on Merkel’s leadership, the UK response and the ‘prevention paradox’Coronavirus – latest updatesSee all our coronavirus coverage
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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Fascinating juxtaposition in these two posts.

C
 
CatmanV2

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Two things being next to each other, but at contrast.

Specifically this
why the need for 17 Nightingale hospitals which arent being used?

and this
At the moment, we are seeing half-empty ICUs in Germany. This is because we started diagnostics early and on a broad scale, and we stopped the epidemic – that is, we brought the reproduction number [a key measure of the spread of the virus] below 1. Now, what I call the “prevention paradox” has set in. People are claiming we over-reacted,

C
 
daverichardson

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To bring a bit of balance here is a copy of my email to a mate of mine last week

Hey Shorty
Hospital news
JCUH has closed 2 wards that were designated for virus patients so say 40 beds? Over 300 people have gone home after the virus safe and well.
They have sent ventilators to other hospitals as they are not needed
PPE has never been a concern.
Fatso's are still the problem patients though. So it looks a bit better news. Saw the briefing yesterday and Ugly Patel is a hard woman. She will not give many briefings methinks.
I pay attention to the daily new admissions rather than the death rate and today was not too good.
I have seen more traffic on the roads and more and more people are working eg tree fellers, council workers putting out cones, trucks with timber on.
I have a guy coming to me on Monday to see if I need a lintel for a wall I am going to knock down! BnQ are open sort of and other firms are starting. The lockdown is over - with or without the government!

Better news on Andrew he is picking up. We had a conference video call today and he is doing much better, still a way to go.

Think we should meet at your house when this ends and walk to the Stainton for a beer or two, safer than going down town
that's about it so take care of she who must be obeyed, stay safe and enjoy yourselves
hugs
d xxxxx
 
lozcb

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I may be wrong , so parachute and bullet proof vest buttoned up tightly , but does the UK have a higher foot fall of visitors (potential spreaders ) than most european countries , as i undestand it Heathrow was still by far the busiest airport in Europe , and might just go a small way to explaining the high numbers of ethinic minorities contracting a positive result
 
CatmanV2

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There are lots of differences. For example we have pretty much the largest city in Western Europe which is well over double the size of the next largest (Berlin)

A significant proportion of the UK population live in urban environments. We drink less, typically than the French, Belgians or Germans (not we obviously)

As foibles elegantly suggested there is little to be drawn by direct comparison. However analysing the data is going to keep a lot of people busy for a while I suspect :)

C
 
iainw

iainw

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CatmanV2 said:
Why guess?
Germany: 357,386 km²
UK: 242,495 km²
So 47% greater area

Germany: 83m
UK: 66.7m
24% greater population

Germany: 232 per km2
UK: 275 per km2.

Looks like about 18% lower density. Give or take.



Dear god

C
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Don’t jump on my as like others I haven’t been making spreadsheets of figures- but- don’t they have roughly 25% extra population and a quarter of the deaths? That’s a good endpoint to compare on.
the geography, density and borders will always Play a part but I don’t think anyone could logically argue they haven’t done better than the UK, Spain and Italy
 
iainw

iainw

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Silvercat said:
Spot on summary!...all you can really take from the data is the trends and that's it because there are so many variables and therefore so many holes in the data. What I find even more curious though is given that we are supposed to be past the peak now, why the need for 17 Nightingale hospitals which arent being used? Suggests to me that when restrictions do eventually start to be lifted, will there be worse yet to come? I really hope not.....
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There is no doubt that there will be phases and the release of the lockdown will be proportional to an increase in cases. From a medical point of view- I would say that it hasn’t been as bad as we would expect in some ways - but the balance now of releasing lockdown and managing new cases will be interesting. I am just pleased it’s not winter!
 
iainw

iainw

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RE: Mr C’s point above re: ? Over preparations- This is a good point and worthy of a good chat over a beer. The term ‘can’t win’ springs to mind for the government. I wish the system had focused more on testing and PPE rather than Ventilators (did I say i was right?) and huge hospitals. I am sure they can find use for these Nightingale hospitals and it shows what is possible if pressed. The big worry is the people who have died from non Covid related causes that could have had their lives prolonged. But this is too complex an issue to get heads around yet!
 
F

foibles

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iainw said:
I am just pleased it’s not winter!
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This is a far more vexing matter than virology and epidemiology...

.... Is there actually any point in time at which it's not winter in the UK?

(preparing my new log in alias immediately...)
 
CatmanV2

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foibles said:
This is a far more vexing matter than virology and epidemiology...

.... Is there actually any point in time at which it's not winter in the UK?

(preparing my new log in alias immediately...)
Click to expand...

Not for more than a couple of days, no

C
 
midlifecrisis

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We must remember that the human body is a very complex machine, it takes a small town in france to get us all p!ssed at Le Mans but a few shandies to get a football fan fighting at an England away game. there's so many factors in COvid19 deaths at play. In no paticular order: age, sex, race, general health, DNA, exposure, work load, stress, life habits, life choices, previous ability to recognise and deal with the flu, diet the list is endless.

Unless we did autopsies on every patient, we'll never ever know.

The governement are on a hiding to nothing with this, they'll get blamed for over reacting on some things (Nightingale Hospitals) and not on others (testing). Maybe next time they'll get it right....
 
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