Are you worried yet.

BennyD

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13,280
If 65,000 die, that’s 0.1% of the population. I’m sorry, but anything with a survival rate of 99.9% gets my vote. With those odds, It’s probably more dangerous straining to nip a sh!t off. So, while it’s still in the low hundreds I’m not getting too excited.
 
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Scaf

Member
Messages
1,718
OK here you go. This is total weekly deaths in England over the past few years (with the end of 2019 and start of 2020 estimated, based on an average of the previous few years). Overlaying (not adding) the UK CV19 deaths (tiny red bars in spring 2020) makes it look totally trivial (from a public health perspective, although acknowledging individual heartbreaks, of course). BUT, if instead you overlay (not add) the Italy CV19 deaths, then you see why it starts to look serious. But even at that rate it still not the end of the world, unless it gets much worse than that.

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I am not really sure what you have done here or what you are estimating weekly deaths for end of 2019 and 2020 at they are available up to week11 2020
 

BennyD

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13,280
I am not really sure what you have done here or what you are estimating weekly deaths for end of 2019 and 2020 at they are available up to week11 2020
I’m sorry, but why do you need to know that? People seem to be concentrating on the stats rather than the real situation. Who gives a flying fck how many die in a given week? It proves nothing apart from how busy the undertakers are going to be. It might be a spike, a one off or a slump so it doesn’t matter. The powers that be will tell us when it’s over, until then do as I’m doing and stay off social fcking media.
 

lozcb

Member
Messages
9,641
OK here you go. This is total weekly deaths in England over the past few years (with the end of 2019 and start of 2020 estimated, based on an average of the previous few years). Overlaying (not adding) the UK CV19 deaths (tiny red bars in spring 2020) makes it look totally trivial (from a public health perspective, although acknowledging individual heartbreaks, of course). BUT, if instead you overlay (not add) the Italy CV19 deaths, then you see why it starts to look serious. But even at that rate it still not the end of the world, unless it gets much worse than that.

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Thanks you 've gone the whole nine yards , Dont get me wrong guys whats going on is horrible , but the data is showing to me its not as bad as what we are being fed ................................... does anybody else have that view , regardless i will continue to sing happy birthday and wash my hands stay in

Suspicion first started with the elderly underlying health problems concept
Secondly its clear nations aound China have significantly less casualties than the west
And today it was announced that up to 45% of the nation maybe infected already
Forgive me , but if this particular virus is only responsible for 5 or 10% increase in our usual winter time mortality rates does it beg another question why have the west gone to such enormous unprecented lengths , with financial markets imploding , unlimited bail outs announced almost evey othe day . One gets the impression the the virus situation is possibly being taken advatage of , almost as a diversionary tactic .................i seriously hope im wrong and way off the mark ...................but if those figures support misuse or manipulation the , i need to know why ,

One thing that has puzzled me from day one , is why no one has ever asked or explained or published in the public domain what the normal winter mortality rates are
 

BennyD

Sea Urchin Pate
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13,280
Loz, well done in swimming against the tide. I’ve been saying the same thing since day 1. Btw, this is not a ‘I told you so’ moment it’s a reality check. Social media has been to blame for a lot of this; passing scare stories, fake news and made up stats to the gullible. Sure, there are a lot of people at risk but they are also at risk to any flu virus that comes round every year. If 45% of the population, some 30,000,000, have had it and “only” 250 have died, the survival odds are way, way above 99.99% which is acceptable odds in absolutely anything.
 

Phil H

Member
Messages
2,047
Suspicion first started with the elderly underlying health problems concept
One gets the impression the the virus situation is possibly being taken advatage of , almost as a diversionary tactic .................i seriously hope im wrong and way off the mark ...................but if those figures support misuse or manipulation the , i need to know why ,

One thing that has puzzled me from day one , is why no one has ever asked or explained or published in the public domain what the normal winter mortality rates are
Didn't I read that a certain Mr Cummings (allegedly) mooted the idea of getting rid of old folk?

If the story is true, all he would need is a Cumming's plan (with apologies to Baldrick). ;)

PH
 

TimR

Member
Messages
1,404
Didn't I read that a certain Mr Cummings (allegedly) mooted the idea of getting rid of old folk?

If the story is true, all he would need is a Cumming's plan (with apologies to Baldrick). ;)

PH
It was a bogus story...and it was tagged as such in main stream media some fours days ago....!
Like all the fish in Venice..it’s bollox...
In other news. Oil is looking like $10 a barrel and massive bleaching event 3rd in five years for get barrier reef...
 

rockits

Member
Messages
7,126
Social media has been to blame for a lot of this; passing scare stories, fake news and made up stats to the gullible.
This is also my problem with modern reporting on social media or printed. I'd probably go as far to say 75% is lies, fake news or just simple poorly research and backed by facts reporting.

Sure we need to tidy this while industry up as some people are basic decisions on much of this rubbish. I guarantee panic buying wouldn't have been so bad and the reactions would have been different if much of this tosh didn't exist.

It makes it really difficult to make an informed decision about anything when you have to try to decide what you think is accurate or not.

The modern media these days is a joke.
 

lozcb

Member
Messages
9,641
Loz, well done in swimming against the tide. I’ve been saying the same thing since day 1. Btw, this is not a ‘I told you so’ moment it’s a reality check. Social media has been to blame for a lot of this; passing scare stories, fake news and made up stats to the gullible. Sure, there are a lot of people at risk but they are also at risk to any flu virus that comes round every year. If 45% of the population, some 30,000,000, have had it and “only” 250 have died, the survival odds are way, way above 99.99% which is acceptable odds in absolutely anything.

Ironically Ian , the world stands by with mininmal intervention whilst the yearly Malaria mortality rate is probably a lot higher and far supecedes the world Corona total , 800,000 die in Rwanda through genocide , yearly total of cattle raiding deaths In South Sudan exceeds 10,000 , and bizzarely 20,000-25000 world wide results in financial world wide glogal financial reset ..............there ive said it , now can i have my tin foil hat back please ;)

Sincerely hope im wrong because if its true ...........................we have some serious questions to be asked of our future and where this is all heading
 

Phil the Brit

Member
Messages
875
I’m sorry, but why do you need to know that? People seem to be concentrating on the stats rather than the real situation. Who gives a flying fck how many die in a given week? It proves nothing apart from how busy the undertakers are going to be. It might be a spike, a one off or a slump so it doesn’t matter. The powers that be will tell us when it’s over, until then do as I’m doing and stay off social fcking media.

So why are you here? Just asking.
 

MarkMas

Member
Messages
3,118
I am not really sure what you have done here or what you are estimating weekly deaths for end of 2019 and 2020 at they are available up to week11 2020
The data from the Office of National Statistics is only available until week 30 of 2019, so I have estimated what the 'normal weekly rate would be for the rest of 2019 and for 2020 by averaging the previous four years for the relevant week. That 'estimate' line looks pretty consistent with previous years to me, but it might be wrong, and we won't have the ONS data for a while.
 

lozcb

Member
Messages
9,641
There are various question marks around this whole scenario which at some stage need to have answers , without doubt he (Dyson) has the production capacity , and although i dont know the specific components required for a ventilator I would like to hazzard a guess patents or blueprints in the time of need will be shared voluntarily for the greater good ,

Just get the sneaky feeling this is all about preparing us for something far bigger and far more important to come