I actually have achieved something which could be a first in that I have nearly agreed with Wattie...up to a point. The car industry is prone to over production as it always gets sucked into the low marginal cost of the next 100000+ cars that can be produced. Discounts will remain high and deals will be had. PCPs have and will continue to feed the over production frenzy. The auto industry has just been through 30 years of margin expansion. It can afford to give more front end incentives to make PCPs affordable again.
I don't subscribe to the end of the world argument....at least not in the UK. Our government is doing a good job of protecting jobs and industry. The airline industry will go bust but who cares? New airlines will emerge from the ashes and be able to lease planes at lower rates so pricing could still be competitive a couple of years plus out. Ditto restaurants and their premises. Economically there is nothing wrong with a large supply side shock as it gets rid of businesses that were clinging on (department stores being the best example) and need to go but UK capitalism (which has a much bigger safety net than in the US) will survive. I'm actually quite bullish medium term but short term things will get worse before they get better and there will be lots of news for the bears to point to. Thing is markets as a whole price where we are going to be in the future not where we are today.
PS Just had a call from Graypaul and they are hoping to open back up mid May.
Well let me dissect your points.
I actually have achieved something which could be a first in that I have nearly agreed with Wattie...up to a point.
The car industry is prone to over production as it always gets sucked into the low marginal cost of the next 100000+ cars that can be produced. Discounts will remain high and deals will be had. PCPs have and will continue to feed the over production frenzy. The auto industry has just been through 30 years of margin expansion. It can afford to give more front end incentives to make PCPs affordable again.
1.The auto industry builds cars. Banks and credit companies enable people to pay them up and buy them. credit.
2. “I don't subscribe to the end of the world argument....at least not in the UK. Our government is doing a good job of protecting jobs and industry”
Reality check. The Uk economy (like others) is in huge trouble. Markets hate uncertainty......Brexit, and now covid. Nothing is protected when the economy is shutdown (lockdown).
3. U correctly describe capitalism, but incorrectly assume capitalism. Central banks do not allow this to happen. They bail out everything.
There are no markets- they are manipulated by trillions from thin air.
Normal Markets would react to 26million unemployed and the worst economic global figures since the depression, with a fall.
They went up.
Wake up.
Smell the coffee and if you have something to protect you better ****** act quickly.