What shape will the car industry be in after all this?

keith

Member
Messages
638
The Alpine is the only worthwhile French Car I can think of.

Seems like a good opportunity to show a picture of my just polished daily run about - DS3
 

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dickygrace

www.richardgracecars.co.uk
Messages
7,339
Citroen DS, Peugeot 205 and the best by far - Renault Clio. No, not the Williams edition, this one:

View attachment 69269
Nicole, yes please. I agree the French used to make some lovely cars such as the ones you mention, and Bugatti too, my first car was a Renault 5. My father had some 3 litre Renaults and a load of Citroens too. My comment was about what you’d actually buy now. Yes, the A110 is cool, but for me it’s not value at >£45k.
 

lozcb

Member
Messages
12,569

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
Pent up demand?
Oh come on.
Think subprime. Car dealers thru deliberately poor credit controls have been selling cars to each and everyone. ( food banks in Merica, 4x4’s -but cannot buy a meal!)
Credit is about to go Boom. Globally.
Wait 6 -9 months.
Pick up a bargain.
 

bigbob

Member
Messages
8,972
Pent up demand?
Oh come on.
Think subprime. Car dealers thru deliberately poor credit controls have been selling cars to each and everyone. ( food banks in Merica, 4x4’s -but cannot buy a meal!)
Credit is about to go Boom. Globally.
Wait 6 -9 months.
Pick up a bargain.

I actually have achieved something which could be a first in that I have nearly agreed with Wattie...up to a point. The car industry is prone to over production as it always gets sucked into the low marginal cost of the next 100000+ cars that can be produced. Discounts will remain high and deals will be had. PCPs have and will continue to feed the over production frenzy. The auto industry has just been through 30 years of margin expansion. It can afford to give more front end incentives to make PCPs affordable again.

I don't subscribe to the end of the world argument....at least not in the UK. Our government is doing a good job of protecting jobs and industry. The airline industry will go bust but who cares? New airlines will emerge from the ashes and be able to lease planes at lower rates so pricing could still be competitive a couple of years plus out. Ditto restaurants and their premises. Economically there is nothing wrong with a large supply side shock as it gets rid of businesses that were clinging on (department stores being the best example) and need to go but UK capitalism (which has a much bigger safety net than in the US) will survive. I'm actually quite bullish medium term but short term things will get worse before they get better and there will be lots of news for the bears to point to. Thing is markets as a whole price where we are going to be in the future not where we are today.

PS Just had a call from Graypaul and they are hoping to open back up mid May.
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
I actually have achieved something which could be a first in that I have nearly agreed with Wattie...up to a point. The car industry is prone to over production as it always gets sucked into the low marginal cost of the next 100000+ cars that can be produced. Discounts will remain high and deals will be had. PCPs have and will continue to feed the over production frenzy. The auto industry has just been through 30 years of margin expansion. It can afford to give more front end incentives to make PCPs affordable again.

I don't subscribe to the end of the world argument....at least not in the UK. Our government is doing a good job of protecting jobs and industry. The airline industry will go bust but who cares? New airlines will emerge from the ashes and be able to lease planes at lower rates so pricing could still be competitive a couple of years plus out. Ditto restaurants and their premises. Economically there is nothing wrong with a large supply side shock as it gets rid of businesses that were clinging on (department stores being the best example) and need to go but UK capitalism (which has a much bigger safety net than in the US) will survive. I'm actually quite bullish medium term but short term things will get worse before they get better and there will be lots of news for the bears to point to. Thing is markets as a whole price where we are going to be in the future not where we are today.

PS Just had a call from Graypaul and they are hoping to open back up mid May.
Well let me dissect your points.
I actually have achieved something which could be a first in that I have nearly agreed with Wattie...up to a point.
The car industry is prone to over production as it always gets sucked into the low marginal cost of the next 100000+ cars that can be produced. Discounts will remain high and deals will be had. PCPs have and will continue to feed the over production frenzy. The auto industry has just been through 30 years of margin expansion. It can afford to give more front end incentives to make PCPs affordable again.

1.The auto industry builds cars. Banks and credit companies enable people to pay them up and buy them. credit.

2. “I don't subscribe to the end of the world argument....at least not in the UK. Our government is doing a good job of protecting jobs and industry”
Reality check. The Uk economy (like others) is in huge trouble. Markets hate uncertainty......Brexit, and now covid. Nothing is protected when the economy is shutdown (lockdown).

3. U correctly describe capitalism, but incorrectly assume capitalism. Central banks do not allow this to happen. They bail out everything.
There are no markets- they are manipulated by trillions from thin air.
Normal Markets would react to 26million unemployed and the worst economic global figures since the depression, with a fall.

They went up.
Wake up.
Smell the coffee and if you have something to protect you better ****** act quickly.
 

bigbob

Member
Messages
8,972
You are a day trader and best of luck with it as it's a hard game and many struggle with it. As for anything long term we are unlikely to agree as you just keep posting links to lots of people who are trying to drive the markets down more than likely because they have shorted everything from here to the moon and they reply on people like you re-posting stuff to - hopefully - help fulfil their aims. The reason markets are not reacting as you want is that this is not a demand side recession, it is an intentionally created supply side cessation of activity to deal with a public health crisis. Drawing parallels to what happened in 1929/30, 1973/74, 1981/82 and 1991/92 will produce the wrong outcome for investments as it is based on the wrong inputs.
 

foibles

Member
Messages
511

foibles

Member
Messages
511
Ive just received an email from Harvard Business Review. The entire readership is being encouraged to cancel their membership, and migrate over to SM for the latest research and news in microeconomics. I'm eagerly awaiting the same from The Lancet, New scientist and...... Breitbart.