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Froddy

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369
Lots of talk Froddy that the $ is in danger of losing reserve currency status.....itscertainly been on a weak run (from highs). The reason for this is that the Ponzi Us economy is 100% reliant on Fed money from thin air. It's there for all to see.
Juiced stock markets, millions unemployed, deteriorating infection rate, civil unrest, massive social service liabilities and massive unrepayable government debt.
Idiot politicians.

The Fed stops printing, it all collapses.
They keep printing to maintain the illusion...they'll need to print so much to maintain the status quo it'll devalue the currency.

If it deteriorates it will typically send precious metals surging as they're priced in $. Lower dollar means cheaper to buy.

By the way, Silver is arguably the most undervalued investment on the planet just now. It’s still over 50% below it’s all time high......cheap way of protecting "purchasing power".
Great stuff, Wattie!

I'm not an economist, so I can't comment on your US$ analysis but it makes sense to me.

I was taught a few years ago that, when the markets are in trouble, silver is the true safe haven. It's totally undervalued, and has been for a very long time. Its rise (now) speaks volumes.

I have no idea whether the US$ will bounce or not; all I know is that the last time it hit the lower trendline, it bounced hard and there was a liquidity crisis. I've also just drawn this chart on AUD/JPY (the "carry trade"), and the coincidence of these factors could be significant.

Gold (spot) is flying, and people may be tempted to add to their positions. It may fly higher (I don't know), but I think this is important to note:

I've banged on for ages about the put:call ratio and the SKEW - they are both screaming for a correction. The problem is that the markets are so heavily manipulated by the central banks that these readings grow and grow and yet the bubble never seems to burst.

All I can say is take care!
 
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Contigo

Centenary Club
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18,159
This guy knows what he is talking about. Seriously need to get one's house in order and prepare for the impending roll over of the stock markets...

 

Froddy

Member
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369
This guy knows what he is talking about. Seriously need to get one's house in order and prepare for the impending roll over of the stock markets...

Brilliant interview - thanks for sharing - I felt like I was having a conversation with myself!
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
369
The only thing he could (and should) have mentioned is the significance of the Yen: a strong Yen is a threat to stocks.

There are actionable volatility squeezes on the monthly, weekly and daily Yen futures. Volatility squeezes ultimately explode in one direction or the other.

Monthly:
Weekly:
Daily:

So is the S&P in a daily squeeze, or a weekly squeeze? No it isn't. That would be too obvious. Check out the 2 day chart for that:

In other words, people are trained to look at daily, weekly and monthly charts. What they miss is patterns on 2+ daily/weekly/monthly charts, so in the last example each candle represents 2 days ...

Are squeezes significant? Yep:

Take care, chaps!
 
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Wattie

Member
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5,224
Absolutely, we are all on the same page here Froddy that is for sure....
That was a good listen.
I'm not sure I agree with his assessment that the market could crash as I believe the Fed and its counterparties will do absolutely everything in their power to ensure it doesn't - like they've just done!! (ie they'll start buying stocks directly to support.....like they've done with bonds).

A collapsing market would exacerbate an already dire economic situation (pension fund exposure etc/liabilities) and it would ruin the fake "wealth effect" image they're trying to create with the economy.
I also believe interest rates can never rise again. It would cause a debt default- we are heading -ve, globally (current rates are effectively negative accounting for inflation) and this once again is good news for silver/gold.
 
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Contigo

Centenary Club
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18,159
Can't see the market not collapsing after the election and the true gravity of the US situation unfolds with mass unemployment, second wave Covid, default on loans/mortgages etc....FIAT currencies dead as we know them and it will all come tumbling down.
 

Delmonte

Member
Messages
580
Seems that people are now waking up to the fact that "FIAT" is being printed in such vast amounts that it is problematic -precious metals are now romping higher, fast.
Silver up nearly 10% in GBP today.
View attachment 73180

First Majestic is worth a look if you're after a silver miner.
Wattie, do you think First Majestic has much upside from current price when it’s already done +80% or so in the last 3 months? NB I get that it will be wedded to silver price...
 

Wattie

Member
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5,224
Wattie, do you think First Majestic has much upside from current price when it’s already done +80% or so in the last 3 months? NB I get that it will be wedded to silver price...
Yes, I think it’s headed much higher but there will be pullbacks.
Ride the wave, set stops, if it falls and you’re stopped out, Repurchase on momentum and repeat.
 

Froddy

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369
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rockits

Member
Messages
7,726
I'm not sure I agree with his assessment that the market could crash as I believe the Fed and its counterparties will do absolutely everything in their power to ensure it doesn't - like they've just done!! (ie they'll start buying stocks directly to support.....like they've done with bonds).

A collapsing market would exacerbate an already dire economic situation (pension fund exposure etc/liabilities) and it would ruin the fake "wealth effect" image they're trying to create with the economy.
I also believe interest rates can never rise again. It would cause a debt default- we are heading -ve, globally (current rates are effectively negative accounting for inflation) and this once again is good news for silver/gold.
I can't see how the Fed can stop this bubble from popping this time. Interest rates are no longer a viable tool or option although it was always a weak and innefective tool for me anyway.

The amount of stimulus and money needed to be printed is getting silly. It is having a shorter term effect each time.

Some of the average Joe's including myself are getting a little more wise to it now so spending out of trouble isn't going to be effective enough either as less will spend.

For me this bubble is finally going to pop and there will be a lot of pain and correction. Absolutely massive beyond what most people can ever believe or comprehend. However it will be a good thing long term. If we had let the pain ensue in 2007/2008 rather than reinflate that bubble into an even bigger bubble we would possibly be out of that pain by now or at least a long way down the right road.

I just don't see how this can be avoided this time. The creative thinking and tools used before are no longer enough. It is going to take so really creative thinking to get out of jail this time.
 

Wattie

Member
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5,224
I can't see how the Fed can stop this bubble from popping this time. Interest rates are no longer a viable tool or option although it was always a weak and innefective tool for me anyway.

The amount of stimulus and money needed to be printed is getting silly. It is having a shorter term effect each time.

Some of the average Joe's including myself are getting a little more wise to it now so spending out of trouble isn't going to be effective enough either as less will spend.

For me this bubble is finally going to pop and there will be a lot of pain and correction. Absolutely massive beyond what most people can ever believe or comprehend. However it will be a good thing long term. If we had let the pain ensue in 2007/2008 rather than reinflate that bubble into an even bigger bubble we would possibly be out of that pain by now or at least a long way down the right road.

I just don't see how this can be avoided this time. The creative thinking and tools used before are no longer enough. It is going to take so really creative thinking to get out of jail this time.
Good points but the trouble is the entire global financial system is at risk here.....and as you say it's a bigger problem than 2008.
If it implodes then we're all back to the "wild west".
It's imploded twice now within a decade and as you say they've reflated the burst bubble twice (costing more with lesser effect). I just don't see anyway that the Fed (along with other central banks) will not attempt to use their "tools" (stock buying etc) to reflate it as many times as necessary. Devaluing FIAT along the way.

Bubble bursts- precious metals positive as a safety play.
Bubble reinflated time and time again- Fiat devalued, precious metals positive.

The debt is unrepayable therefore it must be "hyperinflated" away.

Read in Bloomberg: https://apple.news/A1wZOtUWERB2OMoKM8uAKOA
 
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Delmonte

Member
Messages
580
Yes, I think it’s headed much higher but there will be pullbacks.
Ride the wave, set stops, if it falls and you’re stopped out, Repurchase on momentum and repeat.
I’ve done a little (only a little lol) research on them, they have made some epic losses in recent years, do we think that is behind them?
 

Wattie

Member
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5,224
I’ve done a little (only a little lol) research on them, they have made some epic losses in recent years, do we think that is behind them?
In a word, yes.
Follow the process I outlined. If you want less volatility buy the actual metals ie Gold/silver.
 

Wattie

Member
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5,224

 
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tan55555

Member
Messages
163
Have you seen what is happening at EUZ?
Big rises already this week, but the interesting thing is the disparity between the LSE and JSE. The same euz share is trading at 8x the current LSE price on JSE having had huge gains there this week.
Looks like EUZ has a lot further to go on LSE in the next few days.