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Froddy

Froddy

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OMG Wattie!

Yes, I live for this too - in the hope that I can do this for a living and/or not worry about my retirement income.

It's the US jobs report today - Non-Farm Payrolls (I'm sure you're aware) at 08.30 ET, and gold typically is very volatile with Big Money hunting for stops and liquidity. Be careful! They know where people tend to put their stops, so it's not a bad idea to give the price a bit more room to breathe on a day like today.

If you're going to remove your automated stops, write down now where your mental stops are and stick to them.

If you've got a lot riding on this, best get some sleep and stay off the vin rouge if you're making big decisions. Unless, of course, you're like me and find that "claret" brings "clarity" of thought!!!

My trading hero (John Carter) says that he plays this in the background to clear his head when the pressure is on and he's trying to make big decisions whilst trading:
 
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rivarama

rivarama

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1,102
Froddy said:
So, on the weekly chart, you're seeing this as an ascending trendline break, a break of support at 3029, and a likely failed test of resistance at 3029? If I've guessed correctly, looks great!
Click to expand...
Right... will be interesting to see what happens w the pull back - I have the feeling a lot of shorts happen from there on!
 
Wattie

Wattie

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Fed 90billion.....paaaaaaniiiiiiiiiic
Oil down 8%, no deal at OPEC!!!!!
Stocks resuming falll,
Gonna need more ponnnnnnnnnzzzzzzzzzziiiiiiiiiiii.
 
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rockits

rockits

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9,185
Closed a couple down today and took some profit. Not much left in over the weekend only a few.

Will be interesting to see how it opens Monday morning.
 
Lozzer

Lozzer

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rockits said:
Netflix is a luxury IMHO.
Click to expand...

Absolutely....as is any other subscription service including Sky and the BBC, I would put BBC as the worst value for money though , you pays your money and takes your choice....unless it's the BBC .....they just takes your money......
 
Wattie

Wattie

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Session highs :lol2: can’t make it up can you!
Positive for the week! Of course they are, look at all the good news......and around half a trillion given to banks!

Imagine what Monday and Tuesday are gonna look like.

Did you make a few quid from the squeeze Froddy? Good week for me in General....Gold up 7% on the week. A few of my “risky” gold miner stops were triggered because of the volatility, the big guns are still hanging in their Barrick etc

Gold was smashed around 0130am and I bought a couple of kg.......went back up agai and went back to bed.

6637966380

What would have happened without all those billions.....

66382
 
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rockits

rockits

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9,185
Was just having a good chat with my 12yo son as he was.going to bed about the GFC, Lehman Bros and Philip Green.

Also about the old NINJA loans! He was a little confused as it all seemed so illogical

How and why was.nist.of his response to most of it!
 
lozcb

lozcb

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12,586
Wattie said:
Session highs :lol2: can’t make it up can you!
Positive for the week! Of course they are, look at all the good news......and around half a trillion given to banks!

Imagine what Monday and Tuesday are gonna look like.

Did you make a few quid from the squeeze Froddy? Good week for me in General....Gold up 7% on the week. A few of my “risky” gold miner stops were triggered because of the volatility, the big guns are still hanging in their Barrick etc

Gold was smashed around 0130am and I bought a couple of kg.......went back up again.

View attachment 66379View attachment 66380
Click to expand...
Im suspecting gold will be up to $1850 by end of April , and a little birdie tells me its going to hit close to $2000 by september
 
Wattie

Wattie

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So, the US has a couple of hundred covid cases, banks were given half a trillion or thereabouts printed from thin air (zero market influence) and the they do this!

What state are they gonna be in when The US has 10-20,000 confirmed cases....., loan defaults (
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/nearly-half-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-bank-survey. start, 1000’s in isolation, lockdowns etc
and the Feds gone negative?

I’d suggest the financial system will be in huge trouble. Looking for something safer than a bank with better returns.......mmmmmmmn.6638366384
 
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Froddy

Froddy

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1,072
Wattie said:
Session highs :lol2: can’t make it up can you!
Positive for the week! Of course they are, look at all the good news......and around half a trillion given to banks!

Imagine what Monday and Tuesday are gonna look like.

Did you make a few quid from the squeeze Froddy? Good week for me in General....Gold up 7% on the week. A few of my “risky” gold miner stops were triggered because of the volatility, the big guns are still hanging in their Barrick etc

Gold was smashed around 0130am and I bought a couple of kg.......went back up again.

View attachment 66379View attachment 66380
Click to expand...
That's great news, Wattie! Well done!
This week has not turned out great - a v. small loss due to chop and, as you point out, +ve indices for the week. Chop is the enemy of the directional options trader, due to theta decay. I can live with it, as I'm still at 302% profit over the last 3 weeks or so (down from 306%). I actually would have been positive but for a breach of discipline earlier today, and I'm not shy about admitting when I've made mistakes and things aren't going to plan ...

I'm not surprised by the fact that the indices have retraced, and I said a few days ago that I expected them to close higher this week. I've gone 50% cash as I have in mind that fibonacci timing decision which COULD be a decision to retrace further. And, at the back of my mind, I've been concerned for a few days now about the put:call ratio - too many are short and, like clockwork, Big Money takes out the crowd. I think it may even have been last night that I suggested that there might be one last push to take out the shorts in the hunt for liquidity. Of course, today could also have been a "shake-out" to scare the shorts before the next leg lower but, as I simply don't know, I've reduced my risk. Risk manager first, profiteer second!

It would be logical for the S&P to test what was previously support on the 78 min chart - i.e. to retrace up to the lower line.

Who knows? Time will tell!
 
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Wattie

Wattie

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Froddy said:
That's great news, Wattie! Well done!
This week has not turned out great - a v. small loss due to chop and, as you point out, +ve indices for the week. My long hedges have protected me so far. Chop is the enemy of the directional options trader, due to theta decay. I can live with it, as I'm still at 302% profit over the last 3 weeks or so. I actually would have been positive but for a breach of discipline earlier today, and I'm not shy about admitting when I've made mistakes and things aren't going to plan ...

I'm not surprised by the fact that the indices have retraced, and I said a few days ago that I expected them to close higher this week. I've gone 50% cash as I have in mind that fibonacci timing decision which COULD be a decision to retrace. And, at the back of my mind, I've been concerned for a few days now about the put:call ratio - too many are short and, like clockwork, Big Money takes out the crowd. I think it may even have been last night that I suggested that there might be one last push to take out the shorts in the hunt for liquidity. Of course, today could also have been a "shake-out" to scare the shorts before the next leg lower but, as I simply don't know, I've reduced my risk. Risk manager first, profiteer second!

It would be logical for the S&P to test what was previously support on the 78 min chart - i.e. to retrace up to the lower line.

Who knows? Time will tell!
Click to expand...
302% :happy2::alan::alan2::dance::clap:that is phenominal and way, way ahead of me.


Respect Sir:drinks:

Have a great weekend :beach:
 
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Wattie

Wattie

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8,640
Oil goes boom...this is not equity positive......but it is very good news for those running thirsty V8’s!

Saudi Arabia Starts All-Out Oil War: MbS Destroys OPEC By Flooding Market, Slashing Oil Prices | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

In the last 25 Fed. Repo "operations" beginning on February 21 thru yesterday March 6 (just 16 days) the Fed. has pumped 725 BILLION into the market!!! In this time The Fed. REPO has exceeded the entire TARP, Troubled Asset Relief Program, instituted during the financial crisis.

Something is very wrong in the financial system.....the virus is gonna blow it up.
 
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Froddy

Froddy

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I think it's important to recognise that there has been no trend change in USD/JPY or crude due to coronavirus. See monthly charts below, which evidence established downtrends in these markets pre- covid-19.

For the last few months, USD/JPY has been falling or ripe for a fall:

As has oil:

The dollar has taken a hit, inevitably, due to the interest rate cut; and the yen has strengthened due to market weakness as it's a safe haven.
Dollar weakness is good for stocks, as it's cheaper to buy them when USD is weak; yen strength is bad for stocks, as Big Money borrows yen to buy stocks - the AUD/JPY pair is a good measure of risk on/off as it represents the "carry trade".

It's absolutely right to say that the move by the Saudis could trigger a fall in stocks tomorrow. I now wonder whether we might test the recent swing low. Who knows? Sometimes we just have to be patient, grab the popcorn and sit it out!

It never ceases to amaze me how the patterns of human behaviour are so clearly represented through fibonacci. Crude daily chart below:

And check this out too:
io9.gizmodo.com

15 Uncanny Examples of the Golden Ratio in Nature

The famous Fibonacci sequence has captivated mathematicians, artists, designers, and scientists for centuries. Also known as the Golden Ratio, its ubiquity and astounding functionality in nature suggests its importance as a fundamental characteristic of the Universe.
io9.gizmodo.com io9.gizmodo.com

It's getting crazy out there!
 
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Froddy

Froddy

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