The darker areas of the map are areas with a greater number of the population who claim Russian as their native /
first language.
Putin is known to want a land corridor to solidify his hold on Crimea. The deep brown land mass farthest south.
Which is also headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
So, his pretext to invade is to protect the 'minority' Russian speaking people in the south east of the country.
Allegedly Biden misspoke yesterday when he said publicly what had been agreed in private, between Russia and
the US. That a limited campaign to achieve the above would be accepted by the U.S. I doubt that he did misspeak.
Given his lifetime as a politician. I believe he was sending up 'a balloon' to prepare the US people (and others)
for what is to come.
Putin is very conscious of his diminishing popularity at home. A short war would increase his popularity.
I suspect that the US and Russians have done a deal. Russia gets its land corridor in the Ukraine.
At an unspecified later date. The Ukraine will formally apply and be accepted into NATO.
Biden will pressure the Ukrainians into accepting the US / Russia deal as a fait accompli. Possibly in return
for EU and NATO membership at a later date.
Risks. The Ukrainians go 'off the reservation' and dig in for a protracted guerrilla campaign. However, the
topography of the eastern part of the country precludes this. Its similar to the Fulda Gap in Germany, where
the West always assumed that Russian armour and mechanised infantry divisions would attack, cutting the country
in half and be impossible to stop without using tactical nuclear weapons.
Allegedly the Ukrainians returned all the nuclear weapons that were left on their soil, after the collapse of the
Soviet Union. I believe this to be true. However it is a 'wild card'. Though one which I'm guessing that the
Americans have neutralised.
Bottom line. This is still NATO acquiescing to a land grab, by force by Russia. Of territory within a country friendly
to the West. If not actually a member of the EU or NATO as yet.
As others have said. Real politik is at play. And we have a lot to be thankful for. That we aren't Ukrainians living in
what will shortly be part of Russia. However, will this satisfy Putin's desire to 'straighten his front'?
Only time will tell.
