Meanwhile off the coast of Taiwan

[midlifecrisis]

Now that China has a strong economic foothold in the world. It has been expanding territrial waters by creating atolls in the South China Sea and therefore mining/fishing rights. Now it's overtly claiming that Taiwan should return to the fold. Sound familiar?

The US is directly involved in defending Taiwan.

Taiwan: China attack not imminent, but US watching closely, says Gen Milley

Top US general Mark Milley says China clearly is developing the capability to be able to attack Taiwan.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Alan Surrey]

It is the case that there is enough to worry about, what with window regulators and the Ukraine - was sad to hear scaf's news. But thanks for pointing this one out Martin. Taiwan is where my daughter's (excellent) flute was made and long before it did that, its relations with China were simmering. A good couple of decades on the back burner, I would say.
Do you think this is significantly more?
With the west busy doing surprisingly little in the Ukraine and filling up the Baltic with marine firepower, everybody who previously seemed too frightened to join NATO now doing so, there is plenty of material for our News media. So perhaps a good time for something on the other side of the world to go unnoticed.

 

[Bebs]

I’ve spent quite a lot of time in Taiwan over a period of 10-15 years. Lovely people and great hospitality. China has been trying it on now for decades.

 

[2b1ask1]

My brother has a Taiwanese wife and kids; he has lived there (mostly) for the last 35 years, China continues to sabre rattle with frequent ‘missile tests’ and naval practices in their direction, sadly they are getting ever more serious. I suspect it is only a matter of time before they rein in the ‘errant child’.

 

[UlstermanAbroad]

You can be sure that the Americans are keeping a very close eye on the Baltic States, Ukraine and the South China Sea. So, I wouldn't start to be concerned about China for a few years yet.
Its one thing to have a million man army. Its quite another to transport it across the Taiwan Strait and conduct a successful opposed amphibious landing on another state's shores. Let alone a state that I believe is in a defence alliance with the U.S., Canada, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. This alliance is only likely to grow in numbers and effectiveness as China continues to threaten all of it's neighbours. Don't forget. The Taiwan Strait is about 110 miles wide. Right now 110 miles may as well be 1,000. Having built ourselves shiny new aircraft carriers, we will feel compelled to use them in the event of hostilities. We don't have the aircraft to make them effective and probably never will, but luckily for us, the other nations who bought / are buying the F-35 (B) and don't have carriers, might fancy a cruise down under.
I can give you many reasons why a ChiCom invasion of Taiwan is a long way off. But here's one deal breaker, to chew on for now. The Chinese haven't built the maritime transport resources to conduct such an operation and when they start to, we'll know all about it. Because once built, they'll have to practice, practice, practice before even thinking about doing it for real. Conventional doctrine is that you must have air superiority to successfully move a large army from A to B. Hundreds of chewed up Russian tanks in Ukraine, illustrate perfectly, what happens to ground forces, when you don't control the 'high ground', aka the airspace. To ensure air superiority from inside China and covering all of the airspace around Taiwan will require the Chinese to be as expert as the Americans at mounting air operations from multiple super carriers simultaneously. They are a decade away from achieving that. At least. Lastly, the Chinese must have sufficient surface, sub surface and air resources to ensure that U.S. carriers seeking to oppose a Chinese amphibious operation, cannot position themselves close enough to Taiwan to be effective. The Chinese do not possess the sophisticated attack submarines, nor in sufficient numbers to close the approaches to Taiwan to opposing nations. Neither do they have sufficient fourth or fifth generation air superiority or ground attack aircraft to overwhelm Taiwan and it's allies. And I haven't even mentioned the huge resources and years necessary to train the men and women, not merely to operate all of these platforms, but to fight and win against a set of allies who have been war gaming for decades with a view to defending Taiwan.
The Chinese Communist Party might not exist in a decade or two. Remember 1989. Every Western intelligence agency was caught out when the Berlin Wall fell and the USSR started to disintegrate. Admittedly, there are limited parallels between 1989 and now. However, if the Chinese government itself, believed that it was completely secure. Why operate a police state.
Just sayin'