Im really sceptical of these so called exaggerated figures being banded about , I belong to a few forums other than this one , and i havent yet heard of one single fatality in all of the last 2 months , less than 10 known or associated members have contracted + , as in Ryandoc and Harry's Missus on here , anyone else know of a 100% certainty a fatality as a direct result of Covid 19
Two (actually many more) ways of looking at it:
0.05% of the total population
Or
(something like) 100% more deaths than we'd get in a normal year (this figure will be subject to significant revision after some time when deaths from all causes stabilise. It's distinctly possible that we will see fewer deaths later in the year from all causes, later in the year. Or we may not)
Just pulled those figures using data from the ONS:
Total deaths, all ages, w/e April24 2020: 21997
Total deaths, all ages, average w/e April 24 2014-2019: 10458
C
The numbers have to drop , to put it bluntly the people in care homes that would've died naturally over the next few months aren't there to be in the future figures because they're in the CV19 numbersI'm not a statistician, but it will be interesting to see if there is a drop or increase in deaths later in the year as a result of lockdown. People generally appear to be eating healthier, walking, cleaner air, rtas etc. Then on the flip side the mental health impact and avoiding hospital and doctors for illnesses that could be life threatening. I'm certain without lockdown the figures would be a heck of a lot worse.
Applying some simple logic there must be around 3-400 members read or contribute here on a regular basis , each one has friends and a family base of around 200 that totals around 80,000 people ...........the size of a medium size town , multiply that for the 3 forums that i contribute on and thats a virtually a quarter of a million people who havent reported one fatality as a direct result of contracting covid 19 ..................so whats really going on out there
At the end of the day, it is what it is , and questions will asked , I just can't help but feel we have ,as other countries have ,over reacted , but I think the nightingales were always and should remain a necessary insurance policy ,Getting interesting here in France as it appears that deaths recorded on the WHO site don't include deaths at home recorded by GP's of CV19.
My guess this will be the same in other countries too and as time goes on the current numbers will be a píss in the ocean.
At the end of the day, it is what it is , and questions will asked , I just can't help but feel we have ,as other countries have ,over reacted , but I think the nightingales were always and should remain a necessary insurance policy ,
The longer this goes on ,the harder it is too admit that we have over reacted
I was only reflecting with my wife today how (with the exception of the two on here) we just don’t know anyone who has either been tested as positive or died and that includes families of friends.I know of 3 CV deaths in the last 2 weeks of family of friends.
Thank god the majority of people out there think like you. I have really tried not to come back to read on the forum much after reading the comments of a handful of members. But even tonight there are a couple of literally jaw dropping ones. Glad to hear the majority have escaped personal tragedy - I hope the same goes for phases 2 and 3. I am just looking forward to the car dealerships opening again so I can go for escapism. Stay safe all...I think it entirely depends on location, lifestyle, general health, genetic makeup etc. Did see over react? Maybe. But I'd prefer this to under reacting and seeing the alternative after Iain and my inlaws take on things as well as communities hard hit and other personal stories. I say this from a comfortable position being able to wfh with my family safe and in good health. I might have a different view if my day to day was severely disrupted and I was on the breadline.