Are you worried yet.

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nigw

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If you read my post it’s not focussed on anything in particular. It simply quotes the known figures available dead, recovered and in between and suggests that “lockdown” is futile.
Do you agree or do you think the lockdown is worthwhile?

To answer your question, I think it is worthwhile, or at least has been to this point. Fundamentally the lockdown is intended to prevent the healthcare systems being overloaded, not to prevent deaths per se. If we let it run with no restrictions, the services infrastructure of most countries would crumble - not enough resource to treat, no means of keeping up with dealing with the dead etc. A horrible outcome, glimpses of which has been seen in countries like Ecuador, with bodies literally piled on the streets. So the lockdown doesn't need to be 100% effective, it just has to slow the spread.

However, there comes a point at which the lockdown causes more deaths overall - through immediate consequence (already being seen: overall death rate increasing beyond CV19 because people arent seeking/getting treatment for other conditions), and delayed consequence (deprivation, poverty etc). The economic estimates suggest that for the UK the tipping point of lockdown causing more deaths than the illness is around a 6.4% annual GDP drop, so we're probably past it. The problem is that this pandemic has proved that democratic governments can only really respond to public sentiment - they locked down when the public started to demand it, and will start to ease lockdown when the public pressure increases sufficiently that they can do it.

Logically, and taking the overall social and economic balance, we need to ease restrictions and accept that death rates will increase. However, this is all too easy to say when it's not you parents, your wife, your children etc etc that will die as a consequence. No easy answers....
 

Wattie

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Look, I don’t make the statistics up but every night these statistics are spouted out. These are the statistics on which decisions are being made.
Of course they’re wrong, of course the deaths aren’t accurate (other than it represents a % of those tested and included in the figures).

The mortality rate as a % of the entire population is minuscule....totally over estimated!

The NHS was always gonna be under pressure, it will be under pressure again when lockdown is stopped......cos the minute that happens, case sizes will go up again.

When that happens are you gonna lock everyone down again?

It’s futile.
 

nigw

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Look, I don’t make the statistics up but every night these statistics are spouted out. These are the statistics on which decisions are being made.
Of course they’re wrong, of course the deaths aren’t accurate (other than it represents a % of those tested and included in the figures).

The mortality rate as a % of the entire population is minuscule....totally over estimated!

The NHS was always gonna be under pressure, it will be under pressure again when lockdown is stopped......cos the minute that happens, case sizes will go up again.

When that happens are you gonna lock everyone down again?

It’s futile.

You quoted an article, calculated a 7% value not stated in the article, and called it "the death rate". Why do you think that you're not making statistics up?

To answer your new question, I don't think there can be ongoing full lockdown, but that an easing of restrictions will enable the death rate to be managed.
 
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Media are bashing the government over 'Care Homes' with the sensationalist line of more deaths in there than in in hospitals etc.
Is that a surprise to anyone given the inmates?
Our media are truly appalling
 

Wattie

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You quoted an article, calculated a 7% value not stated in the article, and called it "the death rate". Why do you think that you're not making statistics up?

To answer your new question, I don't think there can be ongoing full lockdown, but that an easing of restrictions will enable the death rate to be managed.
Here you go.
69200
Deaths as a % of cases (in the sample)......you do the math and tell me if I’m making it up.
 
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nigw

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Sorry - perhaps I’m missing it but I don’t see the 7% you quoted as a “death rate”, or an original % estimate of around 3.5% on which to base the assertion that it is more than twice the estimate (i.e. a metric based on original estimate of a global % of deaths against a global number of people that would be confirmed/tested across all countries in the world).
 

nigw

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Here you go.
View attachment 69200
Deaths as a % of cases (in the sample)......you do the math and tell me if I’m making it up.

I give up. You’re creating meaningless numbers!

However, to close my contribution out, and using the Wattie school of statistical analysis, I should probably say that I haven’t died yet, so I think the “death rate” is actually more accurately 0%. Corroborating this, I also know 6 people that have been tested and they are all alive still, which backs up the 0% death rate. Phew!
 

Silvercat

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Look, I don’t make the statistics up but every night these statistics are spouted out. These are the statistics on which decisions are being made.
Of course they’re wrong, of course the deaths aren’t accurate (other than it represents a % of those tested and included in the figures).

The mortality rate as a % of the entire population is minuscule....totally over estimated!

The NHS was always gonna be under pressure, it will be under pressure again when lockdown is stopped......cos the minute that happens, case sizes will go up again.

When that happens are you gonna lock everyone down again?

It’s futile.
I 100% agree. Putting all the debate behind the statistics to one side (which generally are meaningless anyway because of the number of variables affecting them),when it comes down to why we had the lockdown in the first place, it was to stop seeing pictures of bodies being stacked up in Hospitals all over the UK and having a collapsed health system. So the lockdown's principle aim was to make sure that the NHS was not overwhelmed and could cope with pretty much anything. They also needed the time to build the Nightingale hospitals to significantly increase ICU capacity. This whole strategy has been about buying time to enable the NHS to be better prepared for the volume of infections which we have had and are yet to come...and much less about reducing the spread of infections and mortality rates. It's going to happen anyway, so all what's happening now is delaying the inevitable. Until there is a vaccine available and everyone has been vaccinated then sadly this is never going to go away anytime soon, unless the virus mutates into something much less harmful over the next 2-3 months.
 
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lozcb

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12,586
I give up. You’re creating meaningless numbers!

However, to close my contribution out, and using the Wattie school of statistical analysis, I should probably say that I haven’t died yet, so I think the “death rate” is actually more accurately 0%. Corroborating this, I also know 6 people that have been tested and they are all alive still, which backs up the 0% death rate. Phew!

Thats what he does , he's a trader :telephone: and does it rather well , its all about smoke and mirrors , what ever you do dont stare into his eyes :saifi:
 

RoaryRati

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1,637
Apols if this has already been posted before but google Covid19joinzoe - Rob signed me up to it a few days ago and a doctor friend is endorsing it - its an app to monitor the virus spread and symptoms and I'm not sure why it hasn't had more publicity.......
 

lozcb

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Apols if this has already been posted before but google Covid19joinzoe - Rob signed me up to it a few days ago and a doctor friend is endorsing it - its an app to monitor the virus spread and symptoms and I'm not sure why it hasn't had more publicity.......


Oohh all too George Orwell for me im afraid , "they" ( who ever they are ) collect enough info on me through my internet **** sites , last thing i want is them knowing every slam house i visit as well , its not going to speed up ending this virus , its another fear factor tactic to bring in the citizen tracking , and shortly there after the eradication of cash ,
 

Alexpie

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I've had that app for a while now and have been reporting every day. It's been interesting watching the map change over time reflecting what people are reporting, seems its dropped a lot even with the number of people reporting on the app has been going up, I think its around 2.7m people reporting now. But I agree, I don't know why this hasn't been pushed more by the government. The fact there is 10+ apps doing the same thing seems pointless, they should pick one and encourage everyone to use it.

On another note, this just popped up on my news feed.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...l-news-europe-uk-accuracy-abbot-a9490026.html
Could be very useful to speed up the return normality, but I'm under no impression that normality is any time soon..

I'm not too bothered .. I just want to drive my cars !! At least my new one is a project so I've got that to work on until I can get the GT out again.
 

midlifecrisis

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16,251
Apols if this has already been posted before but google Covid19joinzoe - Rob signed me up to it a few days ago and a doctor friend is endorsing it - its an app to monitor the virus spread and symptoms and I'm not sure why it hasn't had more publicity.......
It was talked at length on BBC News this morning, saying how the data is anominised and that the app wil update a they refine the software.
 

CatmanV2

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48,849
Just (for the vain sake of some kind of accuracy) there's a difference between the apps that track you location and interaction with other app users for the purpose of contact tracing and infection spread control and the apps that ask you if you're feeling well and where you live.

But I doubt anyone's listening to anything other than the voices in their heads, TBH

C
 

foibles

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511
An interesting article.
Partly.... I'd say. The author is a complete ******* moron of herculean proportion, and her lack of perspective is breathtaking.

The Kiwis themselves have done a pretty stellar job. They're probably a bit more resilient and cohesive than some other western societies, and I'd trust them to get a job done.

The author however is one of those mindless turds who gains currency from controversy. Who delights in the art of divide and conquer. Who instead of reporting the news is looking for some feeble way to twist data to support her entitled world view.

By which i mean:

99% of the population seem to think they're special... And that it is exclusively their nation's leader who has turned the coronavirus response into a ***** show. Newsflash. In Oz... PM Morrison cops grief day in and day out. In NZ, citizens were mounting legal challenges against the government on the grounds of deprivation of liberty. In Brazil, they're up in arms about Bolsanaro. The Nigerian leader is copping it for potentially hiding deaths in the north of the country. Even in India, Modi copped a lot of flack for failing to render services to muslim populations. The list is endless. Anyone who thinks BJ or Trump or Modi or Ardern have done a **** job displays two things... 1. A shockingly self centred nature, where they're oblivious to what happens in the rest of the world and 2. An arrogance for believing they could do better, and would want a job that currently demands 7 days a week, probably 16 hours a day, of being constantly condemned and ridiculed. I forgot... Abe copped grief for not locking down prefecture outside Tokyo quickly enough.

Next point which this dimwitted author overlooked. NZ was in stage 4 lockdowns for Christ's sake. They're cautiously moving to Stage 3.where australia has not strayed beyond. And yet australia has a lower fatality rate. By a trivial margin, but the fact remains. So NZ ain't opening up to the rest of the world. At 5am on tuesday there were 50 cars lined up outside maccas drive through in new plymouth when it opened, so people could experience their first French fries in a month. So for the author to draw parallels between nz and usa trajectories is misguided at best.

Third and most critical point which i rarely see anyone clue onto. NZ is not a federal system, which involves enormous power struggles between national and state levels. That's why you call it the national government of NZ. The UK is problematic due to brexit, scotlands desire to secede, and a splintered ireland. And australia has a truly rabid, toxic federal system, nearly but not as bad as the usa. It is easier to govern in china than in nz. Easier in nz than uk, easier in UK than oz... Whilst America would be a nightmare. Witness the uk has one vehicle registration body for 4 nations. And driver licensing. Nz has one for one nation. Australia has 9 for one nation. Imagine being a yank!

I admire the kiwis and i am beyond wrapt they've largely been spared. But the author of the article is evidently an imbecile.. M
 

foibles

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511
Two other interesting points... Without needing to flag my political views... I've been pretty disappointed in the behaviour of generally left leaning media... Who pander to the needs of generally minority populations, at least in the west, with their constant 'critique by comparison'. So in Australia, our ABC would run daily stories of 'why canada has succeeded but we've failed'... Or 'what scomo should have learned from norway but didn't'... Or why 'what you need to know about why ardern is a leader for the people, but we get scott morrison'. The truly embarrassing thing is... At each successive turn.... Our covid numbers have become relatively more and more outstanding. So left wing media backed itself into a corner. However, they are nothing if not relentlessly moronic, so now trot out daily diatribes pointing out the 'fractures' in policy direction between the federal government and any random particular state.

'yeah scomo... You said we could walk on every second crack in the footpath every other day, but in queensland its every third day. Show some leadership! End the confusion! Spare our lives!!

I am oh so frequently disappointed at how stunningly lunatic so many people are!

The second interesting point was hearing the nz health minister attempting to discern between elimination and eradication. So you can eliminate it without eradicating it. Apparently. That is some precarious wordsmithery right there!
 
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