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Froddy

Froddy

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1,072
Chaps,

The S&P has today reached the 1.272 fibonacci extension of the Feb 2020 peak to March 2020 trough. Bear in mind that it also coincides with the upper limit of a well-established broadening formation. This could be significant, given all the other red flags which I have previously spoken about.

If this plays out, we MAY see some continued strength to create an upper candle wick above this level, and then a fall either in a couple of days or early next week.

Or they may just keep buying, power through and not look back!

It's a key level, so expect dramatic action (whichever way) very soon ...


78816
 
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J

JJbing

Member
Messages
445
Froddy, what are your thoughts on DraftKings (DKNG).
I’ve held quite a large position (to me) since they were at $30, watched it surge to $64 all the way back down to $35 again.
Now around the $50 mark, I always struggle with exit positions!!
 
Wattie

Wattie

Member
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8,640
JJbing said:
Froddy, what are your thoughts on DraftKings (DKNG).
I’ve held quite a large position (to me) since they were at $30, watched it surge to $64 all the way back down to $35 again.
Now around the $50 mark, I always struggle with exit positions!!
Click to expand...
Common problem “ the exit!” As greed kicks in!
Why not take your profit, retain the original position and use the profit to enter another free trade somewhere else.
 
Wattie

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
Froddy said:
Chaps,

The S&P has today reached the 1.272 fibonacci extension of the Feb 2020 peak to March 2020 trough. Bear in mind that it also coincides with the upper limit of a well-established broadening formation. This could be significant, given all the other red flags which I have previously spoken about.

If this plays out, we MAY see some continued strength to create an upper candle wick above this level, and then a fall either in a couple of days or early next week.

Or they may just keep buying, power through and not look back!

It's a key level, so expect dramatic action (whichever way) very soon ...


View attachment 78816
Click to expand...
Nomura have just issued a warning ahead of a “quad witch” next Friday.

Whatever that means?

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

My tea leaves don’t cover that one.
 
J

JJbing

Member
Messages
445
Wattie said:
Common problem “ the exit!” As greed kicks in!
Why not take your profit, retain the original position and use the profit to enter another free trade somewhere else.
Click to expand...
You’re exactly right, regarding greed and FOMO, I’m just not sure what other position I’ll be entering as i believe like many others this market is ready to drop.
the amount of times I’ve clicked the sell button and it’s gone parabolic..(Tesla & IAG).
 
Wattie

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
JJbing said:
You’re exactly right, regarding greed and FOMO, I’m just not sure what other position I’ll be entering as i believe like many others this market is ready to drop.
the amount of times I’ve clicked the sell button and it’s gone parabolic..(Tesla & IAG).
Click to expand...
We’ve all done that but hindsight is the greatest investing tool we all have.
I follow a trader who says “it is never wrong to pull profit”.
If you think it’s going to fall (me to at some point as it’s nonsense) chances are DKNG will do too.
Bank profit, wait and see, then invest when you feel an option is on the table.....
 
Froddy

Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
JJbing said:
Froddy, what are your thoughts on DraftKings (DKNG).
I’ve held quite a large position (to me) since they were at $30, watched it surge to $64 all the way back down to $35 again.
Now around the $50 mark, I always struggle with exit positions!!
Click to expand...
JJ, if it were me I'd hold it for five reasons:

First, today it formed a very bullish "outside" candle.
Secondly, it bounced beautifully off the daily VWAP and the anchored VWAP (the latter taken from the all time high) - orange line and black line below
Thirdly, price today sits at a volume shelf (potential launchpad) - volume bars to the right of the chart show levels of interest
Fourthly, the daily RSI has today crossed above the weekly RSI (see bottom of chart)

78817


And the fifth reason is that it saw very significant bullish options flow today (97%) from the big boys.

There are of course no guarantees (as you know), but there is no objective reason to close at the moment!
 
Froddy

Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
Wattie said:
Nomura have just issued a warning ahead of a “quad witch” next Friday.

Whatever that means?

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

My tea leaves don’t cover that one.
Click to expand...
So basically it's monthly options expiration at the end of next week, but not only for stock options which you hear me talk about every month - this time it's a multiplicity of different options (index, futures etc) and it's called "quadruple witching". So the markets will be massively manipulated by Big Money to rig the casino as much as possible to avoid giving their cash away.

As regards the call volumes, you've heard me talk about the put:call ratio, and what's being reported in your article is the record number of calls (but you heard it here first!) Basically, the crowd is way too long this market and they are at risk of being crushed into expiration next week.

All of this could be a perfect storm for a big move down soon ...
 
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J

JJbing

Member
Messages
445
Froddy said:
JJ, if it were me I'd hold it for five reasons:

First, today it formed a very bullish "outside" candle.
Secondly, it bounced beautifully off the daily VWAP and the anchored VWAP (the latter taken from the all time high) - orange line and black line below
Thirdly, price today sits at a volume shelf (potential launchpad) - volume bars to the right of the chart show levels of interest
Fourthly, the daily RSI has today crossed above the weekly RSI (see bottom of chart)

View attachment 78817


And the fifth reason is that it saw very significant bullish options flow today (97%) from the big boys.

There are of course no guarantees (as you know), but there is no objective reason to close at the moment!
Click to expand...

Thank you for the great analysis, I'm pleased to see I've spotted some of the things you've mentioned, which obviously means I'm getting better!

I think as Wattie suggested I'll take half at a very tasty profit and leave the rest to run with a TP just shy of the ATH.
 
Froddy

Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
JJbing said:
Thank you for the great analysis, I'm pleased to see I've spotted some of the things you've mentioned, which obviously means I'm getting better!

I think as Wattie suggested I'll take half at a very tasty profit and leave the rest to run with a TP just shy of the ATH.
Click to expand...
JJ that's the best idea of all! Sorry, I didn't realise you had more than one position to scale out from ...

Good idea to take profit just below the high, and there's a nice gap waiting to be filled at c. 55 which the bulls will be targeting if the stock continues to rise.

You've done really well with this trade - congrats! I entered in June but my timing was off and I got stopped out, unfortunately (see below)

 
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Wattie

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
Contigo said:
GUN, last chance to get in at 2p area ahead of the Rincon IPO. It should put Rincon at £80-£100m mcap and we will have 10-15% so way undervalued at £7m mcap.
Click to expand...
Thanks for posting, just tried to have a punt and unfortunately my IB site says it’s not available for trading!
Good luck to all those that are onboard.
 
Froddy

Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
Contigo said:
GUN, last chance to get in at 2p area ahead of the Rincon IPO. It should put Rincon at £80-£100m mcap and we will have 10-15% so way undervalued at £7m mcap.
Click to expand...
Nice broadening formation on the weekly chart, plus bullish volatility squeeze:

78836

And nice "momentum hammer" yesterday on the daily chart:

78837

Good luck, chaps!
 
midlifecrisis

midlifecrisis

Member
Messages
16,229
I've just got an email from IG saying that...
The FCA has ruled that cryptocurrencies are ill-suited for retail traders, due to the possibility of sudden and unexpected losses.

Therefore, as of 6 January 2021, you will no longer be able to trade cryptocurrencies using derivatives like spread bets and CFDs if you’re classified as a retail trader.

Professional traders can continue trading cryptocurrencies as usual. They are also eligible for lower margin rates, monthly rebates and credit facilities, amongst other features. However, professionals forgo many of the protections automatically given to retail traders – like leverage limits and negative balance protect ion.

Anyone else had this?
 
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