Wattie
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I agree but if it ever gets to the stage I feel I have to put one on, the situation is well and truly f4cked -but at least we’ve got one and that gives us a fighting chance.LOL
Well it might work
https://www.newscientist.com/articl...rotect-you-from-catching-the-new-coronavirus/
C
Well it’s better than nothing and for £50 who cares: sounds like I’ve got more than most.Or you'll grab what you've been told is a life vest....
C
I was short Hang Seng as a proxy for China on Friday and a small basket of S&P and DAX and was pretty limit short going into the close (no trading over the weekend but only bad news could come). I'm going to go increasingly idiosyncratic this week - short insurers and some airlines. I expect a short squeeze early Monday hours and reset shorts on that relief.
I used to be a prop trader at one of the investment banks. I had a £1bn book to trade with until Dodd-Frank was implemented and I was mostly credit focussed. Notably I was the only trader on the floor short from Feb/March 2007...not that I got paid for it!
I dabble now and again a bit PA now when it's fun. I haven't looked at the vol surfaces but I suspect well OTM puts are worth a punt...despite a lot priced in.
The 31st had a lot of noise: month end redemptions/vs pent up by need by PMs, and small risk of 'turn' funding sell-off effects.
China has apparantly just banned selling......I totally agree with your approach, MaseratiGent - I think the shorts are at risk of getting their heads ripped off this week. The put/call ratio on the S&P has shot up (meaning most retail traders are short) and, on the last 2 occasions this has happened, the market has rallied (the red line represents the S&P relative to the put/call ratio).
That's not to say that it will again, but the conditions are ripe. As I pointed out on Friday, on this side of the pond the FTSE is at trendline support on the weekly chart.
As for the Hang Seng, this is seriously oversold on the daily chart, another red flag for the short squeeze you have described
Good luck this week!
Let’s hope your virus figures never materialise.......In terms of shares it might be worth avoiding the insurance and re-insurers.
Already supply chains for global electronic brands are being dented and it will take at least 1Q for that pain to be felt in results - if things do not get worse.
I was short Hang Seng as a proxy for China on Friday and a small basket of S&P and DAX and was pretty limit short going into the close (no trading over the weekend but only bad news could come). I'm going to go increasingly idiosyncratic this week - short insurers and some airlines. I expect a short squeeze early Monday hours and reset shorts on that relief.
As for this iteration of Coronavirus https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ it has been growing (reported cases & deaths) at a 25% daily rate roughly. This assumes you do not believe the Chinese government is under reporting (which credible HK sources say China is under reporting). The rate of growth has slowed but that has been at the untenable cost of a 'lockdown' on 60m people around Wuhan.
If we look at 14 days and 28 days forward based on this optimistic/low reporting:
Cases = 14,000 * 1.25 ^ 14 = 318,300
Deaths = 305 * 1.25 ^ 14 = 6,930
Cases = 14,000 * 1.25 ^ 28 = 7,237,830
Deaths = 305 * 1.25 ^ 28 = 157,681
If we look at 38 days less optimistic numbers - say 40% daily growth as lockdowns fail:
Cases = 14,000 * 1.40 ^ 38 = 7bn = world population
Deaths = 305 * 1.40 ^ 38 = 152.5 million
Gold has hit the 1.272 fibonacci extension of the prior swing low and shows no sign of stopping. The next target is the 1.618 extension at c. $1,629 on the weekly chart.
ABBV has formed a perfect rounded top pattern - if the pattern completes (by a break below 80.45), this is extremely bearish. What's interesting about this chart is that price has breached a confluence of the 34 and 55 EMAs which should have provided strong support, and it's breached on strong volume. Earnings are announced in 7 days, so I'd just watch for now ...
There's definitely room for the FTSE to go lower next week as we have not yet hit the lower keltner channel (blue arrow). But be very careful as price is at the lower end of an upward trending channel (the red line) and may well bounce next week to crucify the short-sellers.
It's a brutal market - be careful!!!
China has apparantly just banned selling......
Cocktail of flu, HIV drugs appears to help fight coronavirus: Thai doctors
Thai doctors have seen success in treating severe cases of the new coronavirus with combination of medications for flu and HIV, with initial results showing vast improvement 48 hours after applying the treatment, they said on Sunday.www.reuters.com