Putin's inner circle has shrunk in the last several weeks, to two or three trusted, long-time close friends.
Anyone else who is granted a meeting with him, must first isolate for two weeks, because he fears Covid.
Also, he fears western intelligence organisations using a slow acting poison on one of his close more
vulnerable colleagues with the objective of poisoning Putin. This is why he is seen sitting at the opposite
end of long tables from guests and where possible conducts meetings by Zoomski.
I've been struggling to understand why the Russian military has got so bogged down, against less well
equipped forces. Over the course of the last fortnight, the answer has become clear.
Putin was so convinced that the Ukrainians would welcome 'their rescue' from western dominance by
the Russian army, that he felt able to use largely conscript units which are poorly led and badly trained.
Western doctrine is to use your best units to spearhead an offensive. Which is why most wars fought by
western armies in our lifetime have been successful. Sadly, occupations have been less successful.
While we have characterised the war in Ukraine as Putin's war and emphasised that our quarrel is with
Putin and not the Russian people. Putin has used his complete control of the Russian media to claim that
Russia is responding to help a brother nation, or what is really part of Russia, against western aggression.
Unfortunately, because Russians are so mindful of the catastrophic German offensives into Russia during
WWII (every Russian is taught about these in school) it may well be some time before the Russian people
force a change of leadership. Self sacrifice for the Motherland is indoctrinated into Russian children.
This is why Putin feels able to 'double down' and use ever more destructive weapons, to seek to break the
fighting will of the Ukrainian population. He has signalled his willingness to use chemical and biological
weapons in Ukraine and has already trialled their use in Syria. He used them successfully in Chechnya with
almost no western complaint.
I believe that Russia's false flag attack on a Belarus village close to the Ukrainian border today, will provide the
support of the Belarus people for the involvement of their armed forces on the Russian side.
According to press reports. This will happen tonight. (Friday night)
I would estimate that Belarus can put about two brigades into the ground war, equalling up to 10,000 soldiers.
Assuming they are all used to advance on and surround the Ukraine capital, I believe that the involvement of Belarus would very roughly double Putin's combat power in the north of Ukraine.
However, the Belarus Army is almost completely conscription based. So, the issues of low morale and poor fighting ability witnessed by Russian conscripts, will likely be evident in Belarus conscripts, because the Belarus Army has largely stuck to the Russian methodologies for organising it's Army and Air Force.
I don't believe that the Russian Army will or can change tactics at this point. We are likely to see ever greater use of stand-off weapons like mortars, artillery and MLRS (multiple use rocket systems) to terrorise the civilian populations, particularly in the cities. This has a two-fold benefit to the Russians. Ukrainian Army units must support civilians fleeing Russian attack, which means that they cannot be used to defend against Russian attacks. Driving civilians out of the cities, dramatically reduces the numbers of able bodied people available to resist a Russian advance.
If the introduction of Belarus units into the war fails to increase the pace of the Russian advances, then I predict that Putin will first use chemical weapons of increasing lethality, before resorting to biological weapons. Both of these have the advantages of dramatically increasing the levels of terror in the population and they usually quickly degrade after use, causing minimal risk to the soldiers who deploy them.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Russian forces mass at other points along NATO borders. Possibly pre-empting false flag operations involving the Russian oblast of Kaliningrad on the Baltic.
I believe that this is Putin's end-game. To again achieve an 'iron curtain' from the Baltic to the Black Sea and in name at least, resurrecting the old USSR as a balancing force to the West / NATO. This notion completely ignores the vast discrepancies in size and sophistication that exist between NATO and the CIS.
However, what Putin believes to be real and how this differs from reality, given his increasing and now extreme isolation, is very much open to conjecture.
The raison d'etre for nuclear deterrence was the concept of MAD. Mutually assured destruction. However, MAD is predicated upon the parties to a war being rational actors. That is, accepting that mutually assured destruction is an outcome that is an absolute anathema to all parties. Putin may be prepared to seek to grab a land corridor between northern Belarus and Kaliningrad, depending on the outcome of operations in Ukraine. He may well view the risk of the use of nuclear weapons in Europe as a risk worth running, to be able to permanently destabilise NATO by isolating Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. I believe NATO now considers this to be a real risk, which is why the UK doubled it's presence in Estonia last month, with other NATO allies also increasing their presence in the Baltic states.
I don't know whether there has been a Russian military build-up along it's borders with the Baltic states, Finland, Sweden or Norway. I haven't checked yet. I believe that while some Russian members of their equivalent of the American Joint Chiefs of Staff, may disagree vehemently with Putin on Ukraine, he will continue to have majority backing while he is seen to be succeeding. This forces him to 'double down' on the levels of terror used tactically. To make up for the poor calibre of troops committed to date.
All of which, when allied to Putin's ultimate ambitions, makes me more pessimistic than I was a fortnight ago regarding the likelihood of a nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia/CIS. Probably by another 10%+.
If you see the UK government start to call up it's military reserves. That would be the time to panic.
Especially if the government advises against panic