What shape will the car industry be in after all this?

Crofty

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This was one of my favorites an 82 4 speed box sold in the mid 90s for £650 no one wanted them then :(
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Oh don’t! I had a 280 special, sold it for £500 in about 2003, probably about 12k now! Great fun car & still quick compared to early 2000’s stuff. probably awful by today’s standards, but I have a nice pair of rose coloured specks somewhere. Did get sick of my mates rolling across the Bonnet though!
 

nigw

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904
I’ve been keeping an eye on the various online car auction pages and have been surprised how strong prices are - I read an article by someone that runs one of the sites saying website hits have doubled since lockdown. On the ‘modern classics’ side of things I’ve also been keeping an eye out for a mk2 Golf GTI - hardly any decent stuff coming up and lots of people looking.

The counter to this is that I can’t see how it’ll last. Despite everything pointing to huge economic pain, it feels like we’re in an odd limbo, with furlough and various other support mechanisms meaning that a lot of people are blind to it and in a bit of a bubble - a lot of people think everything will just go back to normal and those on furlough will just go back to work. A lot won’t. When unemployment rises, I can see people selling the car they “don’t need” but enjoyed tinkering with in the garage.

I do think that the lease/PCP etc sector is going to suffer, as fewer people want to tie themselves into long term financial commitments. This will limit new car sales, and perhaps we’ll see a shift back towards more people actually owning their cars rather than renting them, which may partly buffer the used car market.
 
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rockits

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9,167
I don't think prices have weakened much yet. The pain hasn't even started yet so car prices will follow delayed.

I expect weaknesses in waves over time. The Hertz firesale will be a starter but I'm surprised the Hertz prices are not cheaper. Maybe this is why they didn't get to sell them all when they tried initially because prices weren't silly low enough.

I really can't see how it plays out any different unless the country suddenly gets back to work and the response is great also fast.
 

safrane

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16,748
Who's buying stock of vanilla SUVs and mid range saloons/hatches anyway.

Hertz like all major hire co will also have a large proportion of stock on lease, esp their high end stuff... thats where most of your 12 month old stock at BMW, MB etc comes from...not that many fleet cars with MD staff nowadays.
 

Chrisb2015

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538
I would agree the pain hasn’t really been felt yet. Large parts of the economy are in a state of paralysis.

I was contacted by an Aston dealer on Friday who was following up on a conversation I had with him a while ago. He told me he has been charged with reducing stock levels by 50% by 1st July. You won’t do that with a smile and expensive coffee, it will come down to pricing.

On a similar note, a colleague has just tried to offload his Portofino, less than a year old, only 400 miles and in a great spec. The best he can get offered is £134k. It was almost £200k less than a year ago.
 

Chrisb2015

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538
@Chrisb2015 can you please ask him to email or what’s app me pics and spec? I’m looking for stock at present and may be able to beat that offer.
Yes will do Richard. Its blu electrico (is that the name?) with lots of carbon so will tell him to get in touch if he has managed to get off the floor yet.
 

dickygrace

www.richardgracecars.co.uk
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Yes will do Richard. Its blu electrico (is that the name?) with lots of carbon so will tell him to get in touch if he has managed to get off the floor yet.

1ABF1A97-DE03-4698-95EA-DFD32DA90099.jpeg

If it’s like this it is Blu California, which is of interest to me. It could be Blu Pozzi, which is also lovely. I’ll look forward to hearing from him. Thanks
 
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rockits

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9,167
I would agree the pain hasn’t really been felt yet. Large parts of the economy are in a state of paralysis.

I was contacted by an Aston dealer on Friday who was following up on a conversation I had with him a while ago. He told me he has been charged with reducing stock levels by 50% by 1st July. You won’t do that with a smile and expensive coffee, it will come down to pricing.

On a similar note, a colleague has just tried to offload his Portofino, less than a year old, only 400 miles and in a great spec. The best he can get offered is £134k. It was almost £200k less than a year ago.
Could be this classic car bubble might actually burst. There are a ton of ripe cars out there with potentially eye watering corrections.

All these super and HyperCard over the last 10 years are primary targets. All the cars that Ferrari and others have managed to squeeze new ever silly further north. The thing is and this will exacerbate the effect......who is going to buy them?

The divide between rich and poor has widened so I'm not sure some if these cars will ever appear on a different radar. The rich will just have to keep them and try to sell something else. Property.......oh dear.....same problem.

The rich could have actually really shot themselves in the a4se this time!

Who knows......but it is certainly plausible and possible.
 

Swedish Paul

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1,807
Could be this classic car bubble might actually burst. There are a ton of ripe cars out there with potentially eye watering corrections.

All these super and HyperCard over the last 10 years are primary targets. All the cars that Ferrari and others have managed to squeeze new ever silly further north. The thing is and this will exacerbate the effect......who is going to buy them?

The divide between rich and poor has widened so I'm not sure some if these cars will ever appear on a different radar. The rich will just have to keep them and try to sell something else. Property.......oh dear.....same problem.

The rich could have actually really shot themselves in the a4se this time!

Who knows......but it is certainly plausible and possible.
A lot of middle aged reasonably secure folks have driven the price increases over the last few years as potentially the return of investment was more rosy than money being sat in the bank. A lot of that money could also be remortgaging.

A lot of people will be made unemployed after the furlough benefits end. I suspect your 20k Ford Escorts will be on the market soon. And the market is held up from the bottom. If the periodic crash in prices doesn’t happen soon, I’ll be surprised.
 

rockits

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9,167
A lot of middle aged reasonably secure folks have driven the price increases over the last few years as potentially the return of investment was more rosy than money being sat in the bank. A lot of that money could also be remortgaging.

A lot of people will be made unemployed after the furlough benefits end. I suspect your 20k Ford Escorts will be on the market soon. And the market is held up from the bottom. If the periodic crash in prices doesn’t happen soon, I’ll be surprised.
Agreed. All these baby boomers had it good and have continued to have it good until the last few years.

I suspect they could be selling assets soon to pay for high care home fees.

The XR3i stuff at £20k+ never made sense to me. The GTi-6 is still and old school hatch fairly rare now and a much better car at much lower prices. The XR3i never made sense and the XR3 was worse.

I had an MG Metro Turbo.....good fun at 20 something but a cr4p car then and even more so now so why is it worth more. For me it isn't all about rarity. It has to be a reasonably decent car in the first place.

If someone offered me a 2 year old Portfafino at £100k I still wouldn't and couldn't buy it. Firstly I haven't got £100k to spend on a car. Secondly I don't want one. Most modern supercars are just too good, boring, quiet, refined etc. to actually be what I want as a petrolhead.

Therefore who are going to buy all these cars? The market gets smaller the older they get. The biggest market they have is when they are new.
 

dickygrace

www.richardgracecars.co.uk
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7,309
Therefore who are going to buy all these cars? The market gets smaller the older they get. The biggest market they have is when they are new.

I’d suggest it’s the other way round. I’d suggest there’s a larger market for a used Portofino at £100k than a new one at £250k. Surely there are more people across all marques that can afford a used example as oppose to a new one.
 

rockits

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9,167
I’d suggest it’s the other way round. I’d suggest there’s a larger market for a used Portofino at £100k than a new one at £250k. Surely there are more people across all marques that can afford a used example as oppose to a new one.
I'm not so sure. Ferrari especially have been ramping up new car sales/numbers over recent years with more models and higher prices.

Most of the super rich will be unaffected or affected less by this impending financial crisis I see playing out. The poorer section are not in a position to buy something like this now or after. The key section of the population that would be prime to be in the market to benefit from reduced pricing on something like this I see as the likely the most affected by this crisis. Therefore they won't be in a position to buy. There is an exception to that thought but it won't be many and I suspect this will be the last thing on their mind.

I could well be wrong of course and this is only my uneducated personal opinion.

Even if a Portofino was £50k I still don't want one.

I just don't see there being a bun fight to buy or own any of these cars.
 

nigw

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904
I think sub £25k stuff will do ok - from those that need a sub £5k runabout up to those wanting a fairly low depreciation 3-4 year old second hand car. For those wanting something more interesting this bracket also ticks a lot of boxes as the “under £30k” thread shows....cars like the Gransport, Granturismo etc offer a lot of value for less than the price of a new Golf, and will still have a market. I sold my previous car with the plan of spending around £85k on its replacement, but decided I was more comfortable with a nice Gransport and the difference in the bank - there will no doubt be others doing some “downsizing”.

Above this is well into the realm of financing and leasing, which is where there will be more contraction. There’ll still be a market, but it’ll be slower. There’s a point somewhere above this for those that are very financially secure that will be cushioned from economic downturn and still be happy to trade £100k+.

I’m a bit torn on the ‘modern classics’ - there’s a lot of demand at the moment, but objectively they are very overpriced...my 205 GTI quadrupled in value 2014-2018 (gratuitous pic below). It’s a bit of a pain sometimes, and feels very slow - but looks great! You’re buying nostalgia and competing with speculators. Some of the classic Ford stuff is ridiculous, and the buying demographic of modern classics IMO generally aren’t wealthy per se.
70574
 
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Nayf

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Had a Sapphire Cosworth 4x4 Rally Car for awhile not my favorite to be honest.
I remember Miki Biasion, fresh from inking the highest salary for a WRC driver at Ford, describing it as ‘f*(king S¥it’...

Interviewed him recently, incidentally...
 

philw696

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25,114
I remember Miki Biasion, fresh from inking the highest salary for a WRC driver at Ford, describing it as ‘f*(king S¥it’...

Interviewed him recently, incidentally...
Just about summed it up.
My Celica GT 4 ST185 was a far superior Rally Car with a 100% finish record too.