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Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
The 10 period simple moving average of the NYSE put:call ratio hit a fresh high today, meaning that the crowd is very short here, and shorter than they have been for a couple of years now.

Historically, when the crowd is too short (or indeed too long) the stock market, they find themselves at the receiving end of market structure shifts which move against them (see chart below comparing P:C ratio to S&P). There is gorgeous liquidity above for Big Money to devour. The million dollar question is simply: notwithstanding the probabilities, is it different “this time”? Answers on a postcard! …

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Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
Morning all, just up and have completed todays tea leaf reading.
What’s clear is that the global Ponzi scheme is in trouble.

Raising interest rates may once have been seen as a solution but unfortunately this will exacerbate the problem as millions have been recklessly lent funds they can scarcely afford. Defaults are hardly good news for any economy.

Continuing to print trillions will stoke inflation further.

Fiat currencies rely on “faith and goodwill” of those issuing them.

Look at Truss, Biden and the unelected representative in charge of the Eurozone along with their Central bank buddies………useless.

I’m betting against them As the “fundamentals” always win.


Golds at GBP record highs. (for mates rates pm me)
 
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Zep

Moderator
Messages
9,110
Morning all, just up and have completed todays tea leaf reading.
What’s clear is that the global Ponzi scheme is in trouble.

Raising interest rates may once have been seen as a solution but unfortunately this will exacerbate the problem as millions have been recklessly lent funds they can scarcely afford. Defaults are hardly good news for any economy.

Continuing to print trillions will stoke inflation further.

Fiat currencies rely on “faith and goodwill” of those issuing them.

Look at Truss, Biden and the unelected representative in charge of the Eurozone along with their Central bank buddies………useless.

I’m betting against them As the “fundamentals” always win.


Golds at GBP record highs. (for mates rates pm me)

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Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
Forex price movement (like stock movement) is primarily computer-controlled - so called "algos". These algos are programmed to buy/sell at the bid/ask when there are major news events, and they are also programmed to generate/hunt liquidity.

Generally, so that price doesn't run out of control, they bring price back into line. Below is the monthly chart for GBP/USD with statistical movement for the quarter overlaid (shown by red and green horizontal short lines). The green ones mark the probable lows for the quarter, and there are two of them: L1 is the higher, and L2 is the lower. The red ones mark the probable highs, H1 and H2.

As you can see, GBP/USD is below L2. If you look at the stats at the bottom of the chart, you'll see that in the last 10 years, price has closed below L2 for the quarter only 3 times (or 7%). With only a few days to go this may well be the fourth, who knows, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the algos at least attempting to bring price into line. I'm not saying they'll succeed! Look back over previous candles to see examples ...

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mowlas

Member
Messages
1,728
Of course not - that's a good news story and doesn't tow the sensationalist line with all the other doom and gloom...

I’m afraid there’s no way of putting lipstick on this particular pig.

The pound is now down more than 4 per cent against the dollar since Kwarteng’s fiscal plan on Friday, while UK gilts are on course to post their worst month on records dating back to 1979.

Crispin Odey, who’s hedge fund has greatly profited betting against the pound, described his bets against gilts as “the gifts that keep on giving”.

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For wider context, GBP to USD was £1 = $1.3532 on 1/1/2022. All sterling-denominated assets (including UK property) have lost over 30% of their value (in world reserve currency terms) year to date. The cost of all USD - denominated imports (including oil and natural gas) have soared over 30% year to date.
 

GeoffCapes

Member
Messages
14,000
I've just come across this article which was written in January 2021.


Dare I say it, the article is spot on. Although the pound has lost more against the dollar.

If you don't want to read it, the final paragraph:

In sum, the Brexit deal is likely to mean that sterling will continue its downwards trend against the dollar and euro. This will affect everything from the price that people pay in British supermarkets to the cost of holidaying abroad. It will not come as a surprise if the euro equals a pound sterling over the next two years and the dollar rate strengthens to US$1.20 to the pound.

Project fear is actually project fact.
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
I’m afraid there’s no way of putting lipstick on this particular pig.

The pound is now down more than 4 per cent against the dollar since Kwarteng’s fiscal plan on Friday, while UK gilts are on course to post their worst month on records dating back to 1979.

Crispin Odey, who’s hedge fund has greatly profited betting against the pound, described his bets against gilts as “the gifts that keep on giving”.

View attachment 106344

For wider context, GBP to USD was £1 = $1.3532 on 1/1/2022. All sterling-denominated assets (including UK property) have lost over 30% of their value (in world reserve currency terms) year to date. The cost of all USD - denominated imports (including oil and natural gas) have soared over 30% year to date.

Kami Kwasi economic theory.
 

will-w

Member
Messages
208
An all time low for GBP wasn’t “sensationalist”.
It was pretty factual.
It is indeed, but their reporting style and intentions of what they say are indeed sensationalist. Everything they post is carefully crafted to cause as much of an impact as possible and to make more money.
 

Delmonte

Member
Messages
878
Morning all, just up and have completed todays tea leaf reading.
What’s clear is that the global Ponzi scheme is in trouble.

Raising interest rates may once have been seen as a solution but unfortunately this will exacerbate the problem as millions have been recklessly lent funds they can scarcely afford. Defaults are hardly good news for any economy.

Continuing to print trillions will stoke inflation further.

Fiat currencies rely on “faith and goodwill” of those issuing them.

Look at Truss, Biden and the unelected representative in charge of the Eurozone along with their Central bank buddies………useless.

I’m betting against them As the “fundamentals” always win.


Golds at GBP record highs. (for mates rates pm me)
But gold against dollar, which it is more usually measured against, is around 20% less than its 2020 peaks?. And around its lowest level since about 2019? And currently at 2022 lows.

So surely gold vs pound is just down to the pound tanking against the dollar?
 
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Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
It is indeed, but their reporting style and intentions of what they say are indeed sensationalist. Everything they post is carefully crafted to cause as much of an impact as possible and to make more money.
I disagree.
The causation was the governments actions and their lack of nous as to the consequences of such.

So bad the BOE was required to talk the markets up!
 

Delmonte

Member
Messages
878
I don't disagree with any of that. And I wasn't wanting an argument. But I have been watching gold for about 3 years and had a few dabbles, and just haven't seen it do anything in that time except meander between 1600 and 2000 (spot). Against dollar.
Certainly haven't seen an upward trend in that time. Yet.
I always expected the pound to suffer post brexit, that doesn't surprise me in the least.