Shares to watch

[dgmx5]

Lawrence Stroll and Toto Wolff are close in business from their Williams' involvement together. Toto's background is in venture capital before he ended up as an F1 team principal.

As long as AML can weather the storm for the next 12-18 months (and I believe there is sufficient financial backing in place from the Stroll-led consortium), I do see the current MCap as undervalued.

Put it this way, if AML go under Toto is losing a lot more money than me and I fancy my chances far more than Andy Palmer keeping his position long term as CEO.

In 10 years' time, would I be surprised if the share price was back up at 300p per share? No. Would I be surprised if AML had gone into administration in the same time frame? Probably not. Will AML ever trade at the flotation price (or its equivalent allowing for the dilution by the rights issue, i.e. 545p per share)? I would be surprised.

We shall only really know once Asia starts buying the DBX.

 

[daverichardson]

Not much if taken from an investment point of view. He will have about 1% after AML consolidation
AML are not a sound investment for me, clearly Toto thinks differently. Good luck to him.
It just does not fit with my personal investment strategy.
It may fit with yours though

 

[lozcb]

What does everyone think of the Merc chief buying a big chunk of AML, from an investment perspective?

That he's got spare cash to splash in the event things return atleast to 50% of what we consider to be normal , if Toto screws up it aint going to hurt him ..........its a punt that could pay off big under the right conditions , but my view is its gonna fall on its nose ,like virgin will

 

[Wattie]

That he's got spare cash to splash in the event things return atleast to 50% of what we consider to be normal , if Toto screws up it aint going to hurt him ..........its a punt that could pay off big under the right conditions , but my view is its gonna fall on its nose ,like virgin will

Gotta say I’m in the same camp as this.
These are extraordinary times. I don’t think many cars are gonna be bought or sold for the foreseeable future.
I’d say it was a poor investment.

 

[Wattie]

Markets are showing enormous signs of being overbought and the amount of manipulation going on is off the scale to keep them where they are.
If that’s what bulls are hanging their hats on then beware- fundamentals will win.

"Fed Can't Print Gold": BofA Calls Gold "Ultimate Store Of Value", Raises Price Target To $3,000 | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Delmonte]

Markets are showing enormous signs of being overbought and the amount of manipulation going on is off the scale to keep them where they are.
If that’s what bulls are hanging their hats on then beware- fundamentals will win.

"Fed Can't Print Gold": BofA Calls Gold "Ultimate Store Of Value", Raises Price Target To $3,000 | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Liking that. Increased my gold securities holding this week

 

[Wattie]

Investors beware......its almost "Sell in May and go away" time.

 

[rockits]

Investors beware......its almost "Sell in May and go away" time.

Do you think that will likely still apply the same in the current CV time?

 

[Wattie]

Do you think that will likely still apply the same in the current CV time?

Markets are very overbought so there’s a good chance.

 

[Froddy]

Just to give you my heads up on where we are (for what it's worth!)

The S&P has today tested (and been rejected at) the anchored VWAP taken from the Dec 18 low:

SPY,Daily vs Weekly Candlestick chart published by froddy

S&P 500 SPDR Candlestick chart created with TrendSpider

chrt.biz

And the market internals look weak



And we are at a Fibonacci timing decision cluster:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BfBdOemd/

And, crucially the put:call ratio moving average has (as good as) crossed today:


If we don't go down tomorrow, I'm giving up!

Good luck all ...

 

[Wattie]

This is quite extraordinary.

26million now unemployed in the US.....more jobs lost in 4 weeks than created in the last decade. Indeed, many Americans are refusing to work since receiving benefits!!!
“Here’s the problem: The unemployment benefits in South Carolina are $23/hour to be unemployed,” he said during an appearance on Fox News last week. “You’ve got a lot of small businesses trying to keep their employees on the payroll paying $16 and $17/hour. One program is undercutting the other. We’ve got to get that fixed.”

Everything is about to be bailed out. Dozens of US states are bankrupt with huge pension liabilities.

McConnell chided for suggesting bankruptcy for states, rather than bailouts

WASHINGTON -- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., drew flak Thursday from governors in both parties after suggesting that states hit hard by the coronavirus outbreak should be allowed to

www.wvgazettemail.com

Europe- the ECB is now considering accepting "Junk" as collateral!!
WTF!!!

https://www.reuters.com/article/ecb-policy-idUSL5N2CA74Y

Why? Is Italy about to get reclassified as "Junk Status"......watch this is space.

'Welcome to the house of horror': The awful economic data for April is here

Economists and investors had been bracing for dismal economic data for this month. But the latest readings of the closely-watched Purchasing Managers' Index, which surveys senior executives at private sector companies, are gut-wrenchingly awful.

www.cnn.com

Uk-

Bank of England warns of worst contraction in centuries, as economic activity slumps - as it happened

UK is suffering fastest and deepest slump in “possibly several centuries”, warns BoE policy maker Jan Vlieghe

www.theguardian.com

Does anyone think that this is going to return to “normal” once this is over?

“Normal” was debt based fake prosperity. That unrepayable debt is now growing exponentially.

If any other industry were as manipulated as much as “finance” it would be shutdown. The above news from just 3 of the world’s most “wealthy” economies should, under normal market conditions have sent stocks plunging. They barely moved.

Nothing is going to shore up this sh1tshow, no amount of debt, money printing, incompetent politician or indeed clueless, inept Central bankers.

We are well and truly screwed.

 

[Wattie]

The Fed vs Fundamentals: Who Wins? | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[rockits]

What I don't understand is the point, reason and case for negative interest rates. Any ideas?

If I were a bank and had a pot load of cash sitting there why would I want to lend it to anyone at negative rates? Or am I missing some trickery or detail here?

 

[rockits]

I can understand the negative oil prices however as it is physical and requires storage/containment costs. Therefore it nett terms you could be losing more if you have to store it for ages. Also if you don;t have the cash flow to hold/store it.

Surely though if you were cash rich and had lots of zero/low cost storage it would make sense to store as much as you could? We know prices will bounce as demand returns.

 

[Wattie]

What I don't understand is the point, reason and case for negative interest rates. Any ideas?

If I were a bank and had a pot load of cash sitting there why would I want to lend it to anyone at negative rates? Or am I missing some trickery or detail here?

As an example- US
At the moment the banks don’t want to lend anything to anyone that isn’t backed by the Fed. They know it’s never gonna come back unless it’s Fed backed- gteed and therefore no morale hazard.
-ve rates suggests u would rather spend your money than pay a bank to hold it- ie stimulating the economy.
Think about it. Bank deposit rates are already -ve as inflation is higher ( very few realise this)...hence why gold is more popular... the cost of storage, audit, insurance is offset by the -ve return

 

[rockits]

Nope.....still don't get it.....idiots version?!

 

[Ebenezer]

Government wants you to spend money. Your money is in a bank account. If the interest rates are negative you get interest charged for leaving your money in the account and not spending it. Therefore better to spend it rather than watch it evaporate with nothing to show for it.
Eb

 

[rockits]

Government wants you to spend money. Your money is in a bank account. If the interest rates are negative you get interest charged for leaving your money in the account and not spending it. Therefore better to spend it rather than watch it evaporate with nothing to show for it.
Eb

I get your point. However scenario. I have no job, no income but some savings. Not sure I am going to go on a spending spree so will spend only what I need and no more. Cash is king in this current climate in most/all senses I would have thought. I am not sure a negative 1% or 2% or less is going to change much is it? When rates went down they didn't really achieve much as it is the wrong tool for the job IMHO and has been used to poor effect for many many years.

Playing with Interest Rates isn't the answer is it?

 

[rockits]

AML just hit your 50p target, Rockits...

Just sold them today! Bought them for 49.x Weds and nicked 20%. Did the same for the AA as well so creating a little strategy of ins at known lows/dips then out asap back into cash for 15-20%. Still got my NCYT, GGP & SOLG doing well though. Did sell some NCYT the other day but then bought those back in again the massive drop down to under £3......crazy day that was!

Bought the 3 x banks again this week so will see if my 15-20% theory works again on those. Idea is just to keep nicking bits and bobs to try to keep increasing the ISA's value. Conscious of keeping at least 50% in cash as feel like most there will be a second big drop south at some point.

 

[dgmx5]

I get your point. However scenario. I have no job, no income but some savings. Not sure I am going to go on a spending spree so will spend only what I need and no more. Cash is king in this current climate in most/all senses I would have thought. I am not sure a negative 1% or 2% or less is going to change much is it? When rates went down they didn't really achieve much as it is the wrong tool for the job IMHO and has been used to poor effect for many many years.

Playing with Interest Rates isn't the answer is it?

You're acting to move the economy as a whole. The unemployed person will either withdraw their money and put in under the mattress or, often, will do nothing and end up more impoverished and not spending. But even with the horrific unemployment in the US, you are trying to manipulate the 80% not the 20%. What difference does it make if the poor become poorer as long as the less poor are spending enough to prop things up?

Not agreeing with the strategy, but that would be the reasoning.