Shares to watch

Froddy

Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
Wattie said:
You on board Froddy, miners are going nuts....stops in place?
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Hi Wattie,

I'm not in any of the miners, as I already have gold exposure within both my derivatives account (trading GLD) and in my CFD account (trading spot gold). The miners look good though!

My current stock longs are BRK.B, ALGN and WMT. I'll get out of BRK.B tomorrow (before earnings). I've recently got out of RH and VMW. I'm hoping and anticipating that WMT will drop first to close at c.116 at options expiration tomorrow, where I've laid an OTM put butterfly trap for protection at 1:12.7 risk:reward if it comes off.

I've got a QQQ put and an SPX OTM put butterfly in there too, for hedge protection. Yesterday the SKEW index shot up above 135, indicating that "Big Money" is now hedging:


The crowd is way too long, according to the put:call ratio:


Good luck today!
 
Wattie

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
Froddy said:
Hi Wattie,

I'm not in any of the miners, as I already have gold exposure within both my derivatives account (trading GLD) and in my CFD account (trading spot gold). The miners look good though!

My current stock longs are BRK.B, ALGN and WMT. I'll get out of BRK.B tomorrow (before earnings). I've recently got out of RH and VMW. I'm hoping and anticipating that WMT will drop first to close at c.116 at options expiration tomorrow, where I've laid an OTM put butterfly trap for protection at 1:12.7 risk:reward if it comes off.

I've got a QQQ put and an SPX OTM put butterfly in there too, for hedge protection. Yesterday the SKEW index shot up above 135, indicating that "Big Money" is now hedging:


The crowd is way too long, according to the put:call ratio:


Good luck today!
Click to expand...
Froddy thanks for your response.
Kinnel.
I’m half way through this 65803
At the mo, but I will check out “BRK.B, ALGN and WMT. I'll get out of BRK.B”

The rest, is worrying if you are a butterfly trying to hide in a hedge because it is concerned with traps.
You and I are very different in our perception of today’s markets- but we both have the same objective.
Make money.
I’m a kinda a gut feel, emotional, knowledge is valuable kinda guy.
You’re very much chart, knowledge analystic type.
We both have our places ( unless you read Zero hedge too in such case we are fecked- apparantly).
BY the way I am negotiating with my Mrs re hedge protection whilst silently hoping she will put it in her honey trap.
 
zagatoes30

zagatoes30

Member
Messages
20,939
I was bored so started to read this thread, I am now confused and bored so going down the bookies and put it all on the first horse I find with the letters SM in its name
 
dgmx5

dgmx5

Member
Messages
1,142
So who got out of NCYT at the right time?

The last couple of days have been like a mining stock or a penny share.
 
Wattie

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
dgmx5 said:
So who got out of NCYT at the right time?

The last couple of days have been like a mining stock or a penny share.
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Agreed but I’m still in it on the basis that if they’ve got something the price will rise as quickly as the virus is spreading. It’s a free trade for me using some profits so no big deal.
 
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Wattie

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
zagatoes30 said:
I was bored so started to read this thread, I am now confused and bored so going down the bookies and put it all on the first horse I find with the letters SM in its name
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I understand and have some empathy....there’s a lot of technical stuff on here that I don’t understand too.
The important things to take away are
  1. Get knowledgable on what’s happening around you in the world
  2. Apply that knowledge to some of the share tips on here.
  3. From your own research consider whether you want to invest and if so set limits on how much and when you will get out.
  4. Don’t bet the house on anyone thing!

Froddy have I missed anything?
 
Froddy

Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
Chaps,

We need to be extremely careful with gold as it has today hit the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the 09/19 high to 11/19 swing low:

This would be a natural "take profit" zone. Not saying gold won't go higher, merely that there may be a pullback.

Notably, however, the volatility squeeze has today fired long: this means the rally is (typically) good for another 7 to 9 days:

What makes this squeeze so powerful is that it's a daily squeeze within a weekly squeeze (a "bullish nested squeeze"). On the weekly chart, gold is in week 4 of a weekly squeeze (weekly chart below):

As I said earlier, "Big Money" is hedging according to the SKEW chart, and the crowd is too long the market. It's options expiration tomorrow, and "Big Money" needs to crush the longs as far as is possible. Whether it can is another matter, as it has the Fed to fight against ...

Don't listen to the headlines - it's highly unlikely to be related to that - today's US market fall has everything to do with what needs to be done by the big players, and it happens over and over again.
 
Froddy

Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
Wattie said:
I understand and have some empathy....there’s a lot of technical stuff on here that I don’t understand too.
The important things to take away are
  1. Get knowledgable on what’s happening around you in the world
  2. Apply that knowledge to some of the share tips on here.
  3. From your own research consider whether you want to invest and if so set limits on how much and when you will get out.
  4. Don’t bet the house on anyone thing!
Froddy have I missed anything?
Click to expand...
All good advice, Wattie! I don't really feel qualified to tell anybody what else they should do - I'm an amateur, and everybody needs to find a strategy which suits their personality ...

My strategy is purely technical - strict entry and exit criteria, to eliminate emotion. Wash, rinse, repeat ...
 
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