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Froddy

Member
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696
Annnnnd ... here comes the dollar (4hr chart below).

Nice bounce off the broadening formation lower trendline from the oversold condition, with a volatility squeeze for good measure.

82454
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
696
The S&P looks set to break down below a significant trendline today.

Grab your tin hats - and the popcorn!

82635
 

empzb

Member
Messages
227
I can't profess to understand all the graphs you post Froddy, but the more I'm playing around on the markets the more they make sense and it's interesting for me to see how these trend lines play out. Particularly at the moment, even if I'm about 30pc down :as003:
 

Delmonte

Member
Messages
658
Gold is upsetting me greatly.... QE off the scale and gold at 12 month lows. The hoped- for precious metals rally as a safe haven from increasingly worthless fiat currency has not happened... in fact the opposite has. Rumours of interest rate rises in the US will only hit gold even harder when that happens.
I’m losing all faith.....
Wattie...?
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
696
Gold is upsetting me greatly.... QE off the scale and gold at 12 month lows. The hoped- for precious metals rally as a safe haven from increasingly worthless fiat currency has not happened... in fact the opposite has. Rumours of interest rate rises in the US will only hit gold even harder when that happens.
I’m losing all faith.....
Wattie...?
Don't lose faith! I'm hoping the metals will shine again, but there may be dark days before then if (as I anticipate) there's a $US flight to safety ....
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
6,907
Gold is upsetting me greatly.... QE off the scale and gold at 12 month lows. The hoped- for precious metals rally as a safe haven from increasingly worthless fiat currency has not happened... in fact the opposite has. Rumours of interest rate rises in the US will only hit gold even harder when that happens.
I’m losing all faith.....
Wattie...?
You’re being very short sighted.
Firstly you are correct as Fiat is becoming increasingly “worthless” with every single one printed but you have to understand that this is a fake game- govts will never admit they won’t repay all the debt they are creating.
Tomorrow’s problem.
Every govt is using the “stimulus” argument to continue money printing- it’s solved nothing. All the previous economic issue that existed a year ago are still there- massively worse and covids still here- millions more are unemployed and lots of zombie businesses exist......massive debt.

The key is the US.
Inflationary signs are everywhere (far higher than the stated fed targets- look at oils rise) but of course the Fed says there’s no inflation. Yields are rising in response, repo market turmoil, falling stock markets.......huge unemployment, another $2 trillion plus in stimulus due in months....the market doesn’t believe the Fed and is now testing it to see how far it will allow rates to rise.

Central banks are trapped.
They have created a QE monster that they cannot stop.......it all falls apart if they do and they know it.
It’s a Ponzi scheme and they rely on new money.
It’s ridiculous that markets are at all time highs when the world economy has been closed for a year- total nonsense, but it’s because there is no true price discovery anywhere. There hasn’t been any since the GFC!

Secondly, everything (stocks/bonds/ markets) is so deeply manipulated and in a bubble that failing to continue to do so will see a collapse. Bankers are having to use more and more “tools” to retain control, in addition to printing more and more to maintain the illusion.

The US Repo market has problems once again......Sept 2019 anyone?

No Govt anywhere can allow interest rates to rise.
They cannot afford it and all the suckers who have huge individual debt cannot afford it too, people can barely make debt payments now- look at all the mortgage forgiveness.

Expect the Fed to implement yield curve control via EVEN more QE. Operation twist possibly and intervene once again......otherwise markets will collapse massively and that cannot be allowed to happen. It would ruin the “wealth feel good effect”.

Hold your gold, it’s insurance against this madness, it’ll come back and if anything it’s ridiculously cheap at these prices - add to your position.

Golds done well as an inflation hedge historically......we may end up with currency collapse as the US $ is printed into Zimbabwe and we have hyperinflation globally.
 
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Wattie

Member
Messages
6,907
Don't lose faith! I'm hoping the metals will shine again, but there may be dark days before then if (as I anticipate) there's a $US flight to safety ....
Remember Froddy, any USD strength tends to offset any drop in the USDgold price when measured in GBP.
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
6,907
Incidentally, much of Golds performance short term can be attributed to Gbp strength v $ as the Uk’s Vaccine programme has been rolled out with great success. Pushing GBP higher......gold values lower in gbp.
The trouble is that this vaccine £ momentum will stop at some point and if the world hasn’t opened up (Brexit trade issues resolved) the UK will continue to struggle economically- look at the last published economic figures. Diabolical.
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
6,907
The problem Central bankers have now is simple.
Why would anyone buy a bond they issue paying 1.5% or less over 10 years (or indeed invest in a -ve yielding one) if the inflation target these same bankers have is higher than the interest rate........you are guaranteeing a loss.
Furthermore, if inflation is actually a lot higher than the stated target in reality that loss is bigger.


Constant manipulation is painting Central Banks into an ever decreasing smaller corner.
 
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Froddy

Member
Messages
696
Chaps,

A low-risk, high probability idea for you in a UK stock (Unilever, ULVR). I discovered this as the pattern is exactly the same in the US stock (UL).

The share price has a tendency to reverse from its lows in March, and has done so consistently in recent years (each arrow at the bottom of the chart points to a March reversal). So, historically, the stock is seasonally strong over the coming 3 to 6 months.

Upside targets are marked at 4,500 and 4,900.

No guarantees, obviously ...

Weekly chart here, showing the bigger picture:

83005

Daily chart here (showing the current broadening formation):

83006
 
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lozcb

Member
Messages
11,072
Annnnnd ... here comes the dollar (4hr chart below).

Nice bounce off the broadening formation lower trendline from the oversold condition, with a volatility squeeze for good measure.

View attachment 82454
Very Colourful Froddy , Hi Guys been a while ...................might be worth a punt Afritin and im involved with Caracal Gold/ Mayflower ...................watch this space in around 3 -4 weeks

83267
 
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Contigo

Centenary Club
Messages
18,270
Loz, I know Goldplat and Kilimapesa.

Talk to me about RTO into Papillon and Mayflower and Caracol.
 

empzb

Member
Messages
227
Here's my latest podcast with Zak. Feeback much appreciated!

I'm not a podcast person but that was really interesting. Will be keeping an eye/ear out for more. Some very timely buys by the chaps on there too!
 

stindig

Member
Messages
212
I’m now 100% out of Ethereum. It’s been a good ride but other coins now have better technology and Eth is too expensive to trade on and doesn’t scale. Cardano is beautifully designed and between now and August has some key announcements. I’ve moved 50% of my portfolio into Cardano
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
696
Annnnnd ... here comes the dollar (4hr chart below).

Nice bounce off the broadening formation lower trendline from the oversold condition, with a volatility squeeze for good measure.

View attachment 82454
Chaps,

If any of you dabble in forex, you should keep your eye on the AUDUSD pair for a potential short.

Tomorrow is the last day of the month, and the monthly candles are very nearly complete. The US$ index is looking very threatening (monthly chart here):
83614

The Aussie dollar is looking a little tired compared to the US$ (monthly chart here):

83615

Will the the US$ march upwards and the Aussie trip and fall? Who knows ...

On a wider scale, this is a red flag for the stock markets - take care if you're long. These things can take time to unfold and have a tendency to catch us only when we least expect it.
 
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