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Wattie

Wattie

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Froddy said:
The markets are at a technical inflection point, in several respects.

First, the dollar index (DXY) is sitting at the very bottom of this broadening formation (weekly chart). Is it due a bounce? A strengthening dollar could harm stocks:

Secondly, the S&P has just closed the last gap which it needed to close on its way back up:

Thirdly, we have a Fibonacci timing decision cluster in the S&P (today or Monday):

Fourthly, the put:call ratio remains a huge red flag - the market is too long:

As an aside, Amazon is arguably in distribution mode (the final phase of an uptrend). And Bezos has just sold $3bn of his shares - he'll have the very best financial advice - do they think it's time for a correction or is he simply taking profits? It's important to realise that AMZN is a heavily weighted stock within the indices - the big names dictate market direction:

So it's going to be interesting to see what happens at 13.30 today: if in doubt, buy buy buy - what could possibly go wrong??!
Click to expand...
Froddy, great analysis.
It’s funny how things change but nothing changes. One thing remains the same, no one knows what the market will do next.
What we do know is that without central bank intervention it will all collapse.
Invest accordingly.
 
Silvercat

Silvercat

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1,166
I put a load of cash into Fidelity Special Situations and Fidelity Top 50 Balanced Portfolio back in May, really as a punt on the markets returning after a 30%+ fall during the pandemic. In 3 months I'm up over 15%. Beats sticking it in Bonds or in the Bank anyday of the week.
 
GeoffCapes

GeoffCapes

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14,000
Wattie said:
Hope this helps all those who have asked me about gold storage options recently.
www.nytimes.com

Where Is All That Gold Being Stored? (Published 2020)

A multitude of options, from burying in the backyard to posh steel-lined vaults.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
Click to expand...

A fella I used to work with bought a load of gold in about 2005 when the price was about 300-400 dollars an ounce after both his parents were killed in a car accident. His father used to build safes, so he had the family safe craned (it was that heavy) into his house.

He then sold his parents house and bought gold with the proceeds and stored them in the safe. We used to joke when gold went up that the contents of the safe was worth more than all the houses on his street!

Last time I saw him, he hadn't touched any of it. Must have well over £2m quids worth in it now! :oops:
 
Silvercat

Silvercat

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1,166
GeoffCapes said:
A fella I used to work with bought a load of gold in about 2005 when the price was about 300-400 dollars an ounce after both his parents were killed in a car accident. His father used to build safes, so he had the family safe craned (it was that heavy) into his house.

He then sold his parents house and bought gold with the proceeds and stored them in the safe. We used to joke when gold went up that the contents of the safe was worth more than all the houses on his street!

Last time I saw him, he hadn't touched any of it. Must have well over £2m quids worth in it now! :oops:
Click to expand...
Wow!....well this story reminds me of a similar situation in 2003 when the gold price was $280/ounce. I was 'incentivised' to help close a business down while at the same time not being guaranteed a job after it. So having achieved what I needed to do, I took away £40k (more money than I ever had in my life up to then) so I asked my MD where best to invest it. He said then that you won't go far wrong with gold but with one thing and another I never did invest it in gold. What a mistake!! Hindsight is a wonderful thing.:(
 
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Froddy

Froddy

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The metals (spot) are getting hammered today. This is not profit-taking: it's the institutional decimation of the hopes and dreams of those retail traders who have been sucked into the hype.

Are the lower broadening formation ranges the targets? Will stocks follow? The S&P is not quite at its all time high yet, and the throw-over is still forming, so may have to wait for that ...

Silver:

Gold:

S&P:

Fibonacci timing cycles (posted on Friday) suggest the S&P price decision is "down":
 
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N

nigw

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904
Froddy said:
The metals (spot) are getting hammered today. This is not profit-taking: it's the institutional decimation of the hopes and dreams of those retail traders who have been sucked into the hype.

Are the lower broadening formation ranges the targets? Will stocks follow? The S&P is not quite at its all time high yet, and the throw-over is still forming, so may have to wait for that ...

Silver:

Gold:

S&P:

Fibonacci timing cycles (posted on Friday) suggest the S&P price decision is "down":
Click to expand...

Is it a reaction to generally positive news on better than expected short term economic impact, and Putin’s vaccine claims? Not sure I believe either, but it’s a big drop in a day!
 
Wattie

Wattie

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8,640
Froddy said:
The metals (spot) are getting hammered today. This is not profit-taking: it's the institutional decimation of the hopes and dreams of those retail traders who have been sucked into the hype.

Are the lower broadening formation ranges the targets? Will stocks follow? The S&P is not quite at its all time high yet, and the throw-over is still forming, so may have to wait for that ...

Silver:

Gold:

S&P:

Fibonacci timing cycles (posted on Friday) suggest the S&P price decision is "down":
Click to expand...
I think todays pullbacks in Gold 5% and Silver 15% provide a nice little entry point discount for anyone looking to get in. Put the falls into perspective against the gains for both and its hardly a dent. Seems most stocks fell today too.

Ignore short term noise (a Russian vaccine tried and frankly untested on a couple of hundred people) against the long term story of a screwed , ponzi reliant, global economy and ever increasing covid cases.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
Froddy

Froddy

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I'm definitely bullish the metals, and will be buying, but not before I see a "support base" - it would be unwise to try to catch a falling knife.

If this is the start of a deeper correction (and I'm not saying it is), I would expect price to rise initially, to re-test the 8 period exponential moving average (see below), before falling again:

Gold:

Silver:

We'll just have to watch and see what develops over the next couple of days; spare a thought for the FOMO crowd who bet the farm at the top ...
 
Wattie

Wattie

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8,640
Froddy said:
I'm definitely bullish the metals, and will be buying, but not before I see a "support base" - it would be unwise to try to catch a falling knife.

If this is the start of a deeper correction (and I'm not saying it is), I would expect price to rise initially, to re-test the 8 period exponential moving average (see below), before falling again:

Gold:

Silver:

We'll just have to watch and see what develops over the next couple of days; spare a thought for the FOMO crowd who bet the farm at the top ...
Click to expand...
Bouncing back.....at the mo.
 
Froddy

Froddy

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1,072
Froddy said:
I'm definitely bullish the metals, and will be buying, but not before I see a "support base" - it would be unwise to try to catch a falling knife.

If this is the start of a deeper correction (and I'm not saying it is), I would expect price to rise initially, to re-test the 8 period exponential moving average (see below), before falling again:

Gold:

Silver:

We'll just have to watch and see what develops over the next couple of days; spare a thought for the FOMO crowd who bet the farm at the top ...
Click to expand...
Gold (spot) has (so far) failed to re-test the 8EMA but, interestingly, there was a perfect rejection at the re-test of the upper broadening formation trendline.

8EMA chart:

Broadening formation chart:

Sit tight!
 
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Wattie

Wattie

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8,640
Couple of thoughts here re gold/silver.
In recent months we’ve seen pullbacks whenever a vaccine is mentioned, the biggest and latest a few days ago in response to the Russian nonsense.
Jesus, I suspect many wouldn’t submit to an untested vaccine from the US, UK or Oz Govts, let alone a Russian one!
Seems to me that it’s a common misconception that when or if we get a vaccine, the world’s economic ills and all its debt and unemployed will all magically be solved too.
They won’t.
The global economy was in big trouble before this virus exposed its falseness and fragility. This situation is now far far worse than the one that existed at the start of the year.

Therefore expect precious metals price volatility on each new “breakthrough” announcement as it is likely the metals will get dumped -as few will think they’re still needed.
This will present accumulation opportunities.

The US govt under Trump is likely to ramp up its “Moderna” will cure all deal propaganda as the election nears.

A monthly strategy using “averaging” or buying on pullbacks, over the next few months will almost certainly prove prudent.
 
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Froddy

Froddy

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1,072
nigw said:
Can you offer a jargon-free translation of your post? :)
Click to expand...
Apologies, chaps ...

All I was saying was that gold had failed (as yet) to reach the orange line (see below) by way of update to my earlier post:

But, interestingly, the reason for this was that it had been rejected right at the trendline which I had previously drawn (see below):

The selling has stopped, and the price is now chopping around.

We are in wait and see mode ...
 
N

nigw

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904
Would your punt be on a buy or wait?
 

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Froddy

Froddy

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nigw said:
Would your punt be on a buy or wait?
Click to expand...
I would wait - price needs to get back above that orange line in order to be short-term bullish.

The monthly candle is now red:

As is the weekly:

Ideally, we want to see "full time frame continuity" (timeframes in agreement with each other i.e. all green) to give us the best chances of success.

There's a lot going on in the markets - the coronavirus rescue package which the US politicians don't seem able to agree, and the largest ever sale of Bonds by the US Treasury this week. These are unsettling the markets - hence the chop ...

Please bear in mind this is SPOT gold, not bullion, which I am looking at ...
 
N

nigw

Member
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904
Froddy said:
I would wait - price needs to get back above that orange line in order to be short-term bullish.

The monthly candle is now red:

As is the weekly:

Ideally, we want to see "full time frame continuity" (timeframes in agreement with each other i.e. all green) to give us the best chances of success.

There's a lot going on in the markets - the coronavirus rescue package which the US politicians don't seem able to agree, and the largest ever sale of Bonds by the US Treasury this week. These are unsettling the markets - hence the chop ...

Please bear in mind this is SPOT gold, not bullion, which I am looking at ...
Click to expand...

Ok thanks. I’ve set up a bullionvault account but am just dabbling.... I find it really interesting as a barometer of economic confidence. Emphasis on dabbling, as I don’t fully understand the gold market!
 
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