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Nayf

Nayf

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Bitcoin has halved according to the wife, who works in FinTech.
The amount of money you get for mining has halved. This could have very different effects - with fewer bitcoins being produced, the value could go up.
However, because the mining values kept the tech literate and hacking types from exploiting/ruining the bitcoin market, will this sudden drop in revenue encourage market manipulation/hacking on a unprecedented scale and undermine the entire currency?
 
Froddy

Froddy

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1,072
Here we go ... again?

S&P fibonacci timing confirmed:

S&P volatility squeeze - will it fire short? Note that there was no squeeze on the daily chart in February

Dollar index triangle pattern breakout imminent? Shortage of dollars, liquidity crisis etc.

Gold (spot) triangle pattern - which way will it break?

Gold miners bearish divergence:

Hold on tight ...
 
Wattie

Wattie

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Messages
8,640
Nayf said:
Bitcoin has halved according to the wife, who works in FinTech.
The amount of money you get for mining has halved. This could have very different effects - with fewer bitcoins being produced, the value could go up.
However, because the mining values kept the tech literate and hacking types from exploiting/ruining the bitcoin market, will this sudden drop in revenue encourage market manipulation/hacking on a unprecedented scale and undermine the entire currency?
Click to expand...
There are already lots of ‘whales’ in it that move the price in the direction they want.....that’s another factor.
 
Wattie

Wattie

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Messages
8,640
Froddy said:
Here we go ... again?

S&P fibonacci timing confirmed:

S&P volatility squeeze - will it fire short? Note that there was no squeeze on the daily chart in February

Dollar index triangle pattern breakout imminent? Shortage of dollars, liquidity crisis etc.

Gold (spot) triangle pattern - which way will it break?

Gold miners bearish divergence:

Hold on tight ...
Click to expand...
Good stuff as usual!
There of course was also this from Powell.
“after failing to mention negative rates in his prepared remarks, Powell responded to a question from Adam Posen, saying that the FOMC's view on negative rates has not changed and even though Powell knows "there are fans of negative rates (Trump), evidence of effectiveness of negative rates very mixed" and as a result "negative rates is not something we are looking at."

As a result, the "Fed intends to continue using tools it has already tried." Powell's comment immediately reversed the initial kneejerk reaction in the market which was surprised there was no mention of NIRP in the initial remarks”

Powell will probably end up going -ve imo. What he says and what he does are 2 different things. If markets continue to fall he’ll likely add that tool to all the other tools keeping the Ponzi pumped.
 
Froddy

Froddy

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1,072
What I don't like is that this week is US options expiration week (so Big Money needs to crush the crowd) and:

  • there are literally millions of new retail (stay at home) traders who have provided "fresh meat" liquidity
  • the put:call 10MA has not crossed 0.8 which is typically the "crowd is too long" reversal threshold
  • the SKEW has not reached 135 and, in fact, has today retreated. This is highly suspicious.


So could this just be a "shake out"? Under normal circumstances I would call it a bluff. Now, in light of the economic data, I just don't know!
 
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rockits

rockits

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9,172
The thing is much of the market is 30% overpriced anyway so a correction was due. Same as collection and many classic cars. There will be of course some pain for some but if your staying put it doesn't matter if the mortgage is supported by the lender and govt forces/backs it.

If.you are upgrading it is irrelevant but actually very relevent in that it is cheaper to upgrade. Only really affects movers that are downgrading does it not?
 
Wattie

Wattie

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8,640
rockits said:
The thing is much of the market is 30% overpriced anyway so a correction was due. Same as collection and many classic cars. There will be of course some pain for some but if your staying put it doesn't matter if the mortgage is supported by the lender and govt forces/backs it.

If.you are upgrading it is irrelevant but actually very relevent in that it is cheaper to upgrade. Only really affects movers that are downgrading does it not?
Click to expand...
It'll affect everyone, buyers and sellers....it'll depend how individual locations react.
I wouldnt wanna be losing my job and then seeing negative equity but its gonna happen to millions.

Interesting, watch the market!

992 Billion Reasons Why The Fed Needs Another Market Crash In The Next Few Weeks | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com
 
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Wattie

Wattie

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Messages
8,640
Wattie said:
Interesting, points.
I’d add- silver is far more volatile.
Not for the faint hearted, whereas gold is steady eddy.
Central banks don’t buy silver.

Coins- massive premiums for pretty pictures imo. What u want is the metal. Buy the most expensive bar from the most reputable dealer that u can afford.

personally I have bars, Not coins but you pays your money you takes your choice
Click to expand...
I looked at a few dealers, JM Bullion, Gold.co.uk, Kitco,.

Silver Maple coin prices are 4.8%-10.2% more expensive than the equivalent oz bar!

That's a heck of a premium to pay for the same metal weight with a fancy picture.....which by the way some of the bars have.

69999
69998
 
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Wattie

Wattie

Member
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8,640
The only stocks that matter.
70038
Beware!
CEOs, CFOs and Treasurers are all taking advantage of the tidal wave of liquidity that has propelled many shares back to all time record levels, and are selling stock at a furious pace not seen in almost a decade. According to Bloomberg calculations, public companies have raised more cash in the past three days - from selling shares - than in any week in eight years.
 
B

bigbob

Member
Messages
8,972
Wattie said:
The only stocks that matter.
View attachment 70038
Beware!
CEOs, CFOs and Treasurers are all taking advantage of the tidal wave of liquidity that has propelled many shares back to all time record levels, and are selling stock at a furious pace not seen in almost a decade. According to Bloomberg calculations, public companies have raised more cash in the past three days - from selling shares - than in any week in eight years.
Click to expand...
Tesla has recovered from its march lows too despite the twitter Musk roller coaster.

The reaction of quoted companies is perfectly reasonable though as they strengthen balance sheets for a tough ride conscious of the fact that aggressive dividend policies and share buybacks of old were ambitious at best and reckless at worst. I've never understood the 'invest the cash and live off the dividends' advice that many (I)FAs have given. All I am interested in is total return and if I need to take some return along the way from capital then fine. In any way CGT rules are generous and, net, it is not a bad way of getting cash out.

What will be interesting is whether we get more IPOs in the next cycle as the defining fact of the last ten years in the UK market is how many quoted companies have disappeared - this is normal but has been accelerated due to private equity (cheap debt) activity - and how new ones have not been coming in at the bottom. If we don't get this then the point of the equity markets continues to diminish. That will then lead to more volatility and greater indexation which in itself is a defeat as the market flatlines if we all index.
 
Wattie

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
bigbob said:
Tesla has recovered from its march lows too despite the twitter Musk roller coaster.

The reaction of quoted companies is perfectly reasonable though as they strengthen balance sheets for a tough ride conscious of the fact that aggressive dividend policies and share buybacks of old were ambitious at best and reckless at worst. I've never understood the 'invest the cash and live off the dividends' advice that many (I)FAs have given. All I am interested in is total return and if I need to take some return along the way from capital then fine. In any way CGT rules are generous and, net, it is not a bad way of getting cash out.

What will be interesting is whether we get more IPOs in the next cycle as the defining fact of the last ten years in the UK market is how many quoted companies have disappeared - this is normal but has been accelerated due to private equity (cheap debt) activity - and how new ones have not been coming in at the bottom. If we don't get this then the point of the equity markets continues to diminish. That will then lead to more volatility and greater indexation which in itself is a defeat as the market flatlines if we all index.
Click to expand...
Good points there BB.
 
Wattie

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
Watch the man in charge of the Ponzi, talk nonsense about the US economy.
www.cbsnews.com
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the coronavirus-ravaged economy
The head of the U.S. central banking system tells Scott Pelley how high he thinks unemployment will go, what tools the Fed still has to breathe life into the economy and what outcomes he's trying to avoid on the road to economic recovery.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com

Scott Pelley: Fair to say you simply flooded the system with money?

Jerome Powell: Yes. We did. That's another way to think about it. We did.

Scott Pelley: Where does it come from? Do you just print it?

Jerome Powell: We print it digitally. So we-- you know, we-- as a central bank, we have the ability to create money digitally and we do that by buying Treasury Bills or bonds or other government guaranteed securities. And that actually increases the money supply. We also print actual currency and we distribute that through the Federal Reserve banks.

But, by law, Chairman Powell's Federal Reserve can only lend money that must be paid back. Congress, he believes, should spend money to expand its historic bailout. After all, he says, this emergency is nothing like 2008.

Jerome Powell: This is not because there was some inherent problem, a housing bubble, or something like that, or the financial system in trouble, nothing like that. The economy was fine. The financial system was fine. We're doing this to protect ourselves from the virus. And that means that when the virus outbreak is behind us, the economy should be able to recover substantially.

:lol2: The lunatics are running the asylum.
 
Froddy

Froddy

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Messages
1,072
Things are hotting up! Big decision point here as the "melt up" resumes. Put:call ratio is signalling an imminent (and likely violent) reversal, but that could be many days (or even weeks) away. We know it's going to happen, we're "in the zone", we just don't know when.

S&P is at major trendline resistance. Will it break through? Who knows?

SPY,Daily Candlestick chart published by froddy

S&P 500 SPDR Candlestick chart created with TrendSpider
chrt.biz chrt.biz
 
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midlifecrisis

midlifecrisis

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Messages
16,224
Froddy said:
Things are hotting up! Big decision point here as the "melt up" resumes. Put:call ratio is signalling an imminent (and likely violent) reversal, but that could be many days (or even weeks) away. We know it's going to happen, we're "in the zone", we just don't know when.

S&P is at major trendline resistance. Will it break through? Who knows?

SPY,Daily Candlestick chart published by froddy

S&P 500 SPDR Candlestick chart created with TrendSpider
chrt.biz chrt.biz
Click to expand...
This is an English language only forum isn't it? :lol:
 
Wattie

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
Froddy said:
Things are hotting up! Big decision point here as the "melt up" resumes. Put:call ratio is signalling an imminent (and likely violent) reversal, but that could be many days (or even weeks) away. We know it's going to happen, we're "in the zone", we just don't know when.

S&P is at major trendline resistance. Will it break through? Who knows?

SPY,Daily Candlestick chart published by froddy

S&P 500 SPDR Candlestick chart created with TrendSpider
chrt.biz chrt.biz
Click to expand...
Interesting Froddy.
Powell and Moderna's (8 person trial on the young) hilariously moved markets yesterday along with Merkel and Macrons latest Eu ponzi bailout fund.
Whatever analysis method you follow this situation comes down to one thing and one thing only. They cannot reverse "Money printing" as everything relies on it.
 
Froddy

Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
midlifecrisis said:
This is an English language only forum isn't it? :lol:
Click to expand...
Apologies, chaps!

In plain English (I hope): there are too many people who are bullish the S&P and, historically, when the proportion of bullish people reaches a certain range, the market reverses. This is the put:call ratio. We are entering that range (see first chart). We don't know when it will happen, but the probabilities now favour a reversal. It could be days or weeks - it's a waiting game. The S&P has reached a technical reversal point - see the trendline on the S&P (SPY) chart (second chart) - will it reverse now or break through that point and reverse at some higher point?

Will fortune favour the brave, or will those with FOMO (fear of missing out) get crucified?

Who knows?
 
Wattie

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
Froddy said:
Apologies, chaps!

In plain English (I hope): there are too many people who are bullish the S&P and, historically, when the proportion of bullish people reaches a certain range, the market reverses. This is the put:call ratio. We are entering that range (see first chart). We don't know when it will happen, but the probabilities now favour a reversal. It could be days or weeks - it's a waiting game. The S&P has reached a technical reversal point - see the trendline on the S&P (SPY) chart (second chart) - will it reverse now or break through that point and reverse at some higher point?

Will fortune favour the brave, or will those with FOMO (fear of missing out) get crucified?

Who knows?
Click to expand...
kingworldnews.com

Public Going "All-In" (Again) On Stocks, But Here Is The Big Surprise - King World News

With stocks rallying the public is going "all-in" again on stocks, but the big surprise is not one, but two records have just been broken.
kingworldnews.com kingworldnews.com
 
rockits

rockits

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Messages
9,172
I've just watched 'The Men Who Stole The World' on Amazon Prime Video. Never noticed it or watched it before. All about the 2007/8 GFC 10 years later. Very interesting and well worth watching.
 
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