Shares to watch

MaseratiGent

Member
Messages
162
Well thats me and Masergent as two bears. Every good story needs a third. Hope your family situation has improved.
Do you mind if I ask if you hold gold?

It's something I want to hold, yes. But unless levered the returns aren't too good. My concern with shorting equities is that central banks now openly go out to support the stock market (that is now their barometer of action). So, CB money printing, QE 5, is a risk to P&L from the downside. Of course it doesn't fix anything - it just further perpetuates unearned inequity (through asset inflation) and populism/long term political instability. Gold is the protection against that. HOWEVER, you have FX risk (which is usually the biggest determinant of returns) and ETF unwind risk - so how do you go long gold, levered, without an ETF?
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
I’m not levered on anything.
I’m in wealth preservation mode rather than excessive accumulation. Agree on Cb’s but I cannot see them printing their way out of this.......
We’ve interests in Aud, gbp and Eu so currency volatility doesn’t bother me for gold.
I’m 80% physical, rest etf and gold miners to turbocharge returns without leverage using trailing stops.
Thanks for your input, appreciated.
 
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Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
Well thats me and Masergent as two bears. Every good story needs a third. Hope your family situation has improved.
Do you mind if I ask if you hold gold?
Actually I’m clearly Goldi-nolocks, we need two more bears! (One if Froddy confirms he’s in the bear pack)


kaaaaa-ching!
 
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Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
Thanks both. I might have a dig tomorrow when I'm more focussed. Today has been good with some of my students as this last week marks 30 years of study.

Thanks again
C
30 years of study....I thought most Uni courses were about 4years. Better get a bloody good job to pay off that student loan after that time ;)
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
Ok Fellas, little portfolio update.

I have identified the following Miners and will add these tonight from my cash holding along with possible increased positions in my existing ones.

DRD, GFI, HMY, ASA, NG. 3% trailing stops.

Anyone with a Pension portfolio who is nearing retirement (or concerned) should be ringing their financial advisor.

Personally, given the time it takes to switch out of mutual funds (if shtf) I would be considering switches to cash, gold exposure (Bullion and miners) and would ditch other equity exposure for the next few months. Stop losses on Mutual Funds are not possible. Tracker funds will follow indexes down as well as up.

I predict gold will go up 25% from current levels. DYOR. Over 50k.

If your advisor is blasé when you call him- get another one.
65937
 
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Contigo

Sponsor
Messages
18,376
Gold flying and the indices have fallen off a cliff over night. Dow down 500 points .. buy gold stocks!!!
 

Contigo

Sponsor
Messages
18,376
What are people's thought on Tullow Oil, seems to have dropped lower than I would expect, might be a good one for a medium term hold?

I bought at 40 when it first dropped and sold at 60. Not been back since... problem is funding and debt.. demand for oil will decrease now with China in lockdown. Look at HUR too they have been oversold and are due a bounce.
 

Contigo

Sponsor
Messages
18,376
NCYT up over 40% on PARIS pre-open..
 

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dgmx5

Member
Messages
1,142
What is the best of holding gold, and other commodities, in an ISA? Is it through an ETC or some other vehicle? Any recommendations?

@Wattie , how do I throw money at you to buy gold?
First paragraph serious, second not yet.
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
What is the best of holding gold, and other commodities, in an ISA? Is it through an ETC or some other vehicle? Any recommendations?

@Wattie , how do I throw money at you to buy gold?
First paragraph serious, second not yet.
Buy physical gold and store in a vault is the simplestThese guys are excellent and offer a complete service based in the Uk- cheaper than my service. Think of it like an online bank account except you buy gold in it.
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
Actually I’m clearly Goldi-nolocks, we need two more bears! (One if Froddy confirms he’s in the bear pack)
I'm definitely a bear, but cannot trade like a bear until the uptrend is broken and reversed from a technical perspective. What we don't know is whether this is going to be a Black Swan crash, or whether the market will enter a "distribution" phase before a "decline" phase.

If we are entering a "distribution" phase, expect the indices to chop (violently) within a range before either resuming the uptrend or entering a decline. Distribution looks like this:

As of Friday's close, I held:

2 ITM GLD (gold) call options;
1 ITM SPY (S&P) put option
1 OTM SPX (S&P) put butterfly - May expiration with SPX at 2000 points, R:R 115:1
1 ITM Boeing (BA) put option
1 ITM DLTR call option
3 ITM WMT call options

Hopefully I'll be in reasonable shape at the US open and, if my longs gap down, I'll exit those immediately.
I'll let the markets settle and then start to look for stocks which have held their own, are rising and "doing their own thing". My existing puts will give me hedge protection until such time as the uptrend is broken and then I'll re-assess.

As always, I'll count to 10 before pulling the trigger and ask myself whether I'm sticking to the plan - it's easy to get excited and emotional when the markets are going nuts. I'll make sure that every decision is explained and journaled on trademetria.com and a screenshot taken so that I can iron out any discipline breaches when I look back at my performance.

Good luck, chaps! Let's hope this virus doesn't cost too many lives.
 

MaseratiGent

Member
Messages
162
Some of my March puts are up 300% today.

If you see a real risk of a -20% drop over the next 2 months in equity indices I would avoid ETFs - in that scenario they likely break. It's been a market structure concern for years now.
 

Froddy

Member
Messages
1,072
Some of my March puts are up 300% today.

If you see a real risk of a -20% drop over the next 2 months in equity indices I would avoid ETFs - in that scenario they likely break. It's been a market structure concern for years now.
That's very helpful, MG - many thanks ...
 

Wattie

Member
Messages
8,640
Some of my March puts are up 300% today.

If you see a real risk of a -20% drop over the next 2 months in equity indices I would avoid ETFs - in that scenario they likely break. It's been a market structure concern for years now.
Wow, as I’m not familiar/nor understand can you cash em in now.....or do you have to wait till March?