Shares to watch

[CatmanV2]

I understand about one word in five of this

C

 

[Contigo]

It's just the ticker names C, GGP (Greatland Gold) explorer in Australia working with Newcrest. You are in the share groups on Facebook so see most of my tips there right?

 

[Contigo]

There is the mother of all crashes due especially with China in the mess they are in right now so people turn to Gold and Medical stocks.

Three stocks which are linked with Coronavirus

NCYT (done 1000% so far but still a traders dream right now) Closed at 105 on Friday expecting fireworks tomorrow as South Korea and Italy now in lockdown in parts of the county.
BYOT (sells detergent to kill N-COV, production is flat out to meet demand).
SNG

• doctors can now test for viruses (better machines exist - such as the filmarray SNG are using)
• One of the biggest problems in the NHS (and everywhere else) is over-prescribing antibiotics regularly, for virus-related things, that antibiotics will do nothing for

Therefore:

• The market for a broad spectrum anti-viral like this is massive
• It helps reduce one of the biggest problems in world health (antibiotic resistance) by reducing the prescription of anti-biotics to only those conditions it can help with
• It will improve the outcome for patients (having something that actually treats their problem rather than something that's no better than a placebo for their virus - antibiotics)

 

[CatmanV2]

It's just the ticker names C, GGP (Greatland Gold) explorer in Australia working with Newcrest. You are in the share groups on Facebook so see most of my tips there right?

In one of them yes, but Facebook doesn't think I'm that interested

C

 

[Wattie]

Did I add you mate?

Not yet.
Cheers

 

[Wattie]

I understand about one word in five of this

C

What are you struggling with C and I’ll try to assist?

Tickers have been explained.

Froddys posts are technical- I don’t understand 2/3rds of them but don’t let that put you off.
His analysis pinpoints certain events and timings in the market that have the potential to move shares or commodities up/down. Time will tell what the action is......and that will often depend on news/events worldwide.it can also depend on the players involved in a particular commodity/stock. Ie a big bank on the wrong side of a trade may try to move the market.....dare I say manipulate....as has happened in the past.

Stops in place-
If I own a share valued at £1 and I have a 3% stop in place I set up an automatic trade to sell my position if the price moves to 0.97. Ie my loss is limited to 3%

Next day if the stock hasn’t fallen but has gone up to say £1.05. I work out 97% of that price and readjust my 0.97 “stop” upwards to reflect that.Make sense?

Fire away with questions.

 

[Contigo]

Never use stop losses on volatile small cap/AIM listed shares. You will get robbed and you are effectively telling the mm's to drop the SP to trigger sells and let them scoop up cheap shares. They did it on Thursday with NCYT.

 

[Wattie]

NCYT will move to 200 again soon Wattie, it's very volatile so need some good cahonies for this one.

Check out COBR too, Gold miner in Aus with amazing area, similar to GGP but not moved much at all. Interview on Proactive with CEO very cool guy.

BPC will move well too with drilling in the Bahamas coming up.

Yup, no problems with the volatility on this.in for the ride!
I’m probably gonna pile into a few other miners tomorrow night so will report back in due course.

Golds only going one way imo...this hasn’t even hit the fan yet.
Never mind China, .....Samsung latest to warn of parts shortages.....the dominos are wobbling......when Italy’s paralysed too it and the Eu will be in desperate trouble....the global financial system as well.

Contained- my ars3.
The facts tell otherwise.

 

[Wattie]

Never use stop losses on volatile small cap/AIM listed shares. You will get robbed and you are effectively telling the mm's to drop the SP to trigger sells and let them scoop up cheap shares. They did it on Thursday with NCYT.

Yeah good point- you have to set stops for these at around 20-25% (more) as the price action can be that plus in a day!


Interesting....Dyson involved....

iMask? Companies Race To Build Next-Gen Facewear To Block Germs | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Froddy]

Yup, no problems with the volatility on this.in for the ride!
I’m probably gonna pile into a few other miners tomorrow night so will report back in due course.

Golds only going one way imo...this hasn’t even hit the fan yet.
Never mind China, .....Samsung latest to warn of parts shortages.....the dominos are wobbling......when Italy’s paralysed too it and the Eu will be in desperate trouble....the global financial system as well.

Contained- my ars3.
The facts tell otherwise.

Chaps,

I hope I haven't caused any confusion, and apologies if I have. Gold is ripping higher and, as I pointed out a few days ago, it's in (very powerful) multiple volatility squeezes. I have bullish positions in gold myself, and all I was trying to highlight in my earlier post is that the conditions are ripe for manipulation by the big players this week, and that a pullback (as opposed to a trend reversal) is potentially on the cards. Any pullback could be sharp to shake out as many long February futures contracts as possible - the market is an equal opportunities dreams destroyer! I just want people to be aware, and not scratch their heads trying to work out what's happening ...

Contigo and Wattie are absolutely right to identify gold as a "safe haven" asset, so it tends to do well (along with the Yen, silver and treasury bonds) during risk-off sentiment periods.

With the news of the spread of the virus this weekend, it's entirely possible that gold will just power on through and not look back.

 

[CatmanV2]

Thanks both. I might have a dig tomorrow when I'm more focussed. Today has been good with some of my students as this last week marks 30 years of study.

Thanks again
C

 

[AT3200AC]

Never use stop losses on volatile small cap/AIM listed shares. You will get robbed and you are effectively telling the mm's to drop the SP to trigger sells and let them scoop up cheap shares. They did it on Thursday with NCYT.

Pretty sure I have witnessed this a few times on GGP with short sharp drops during the more volatile periods followed by a speedy recovery.

 

[MaseratiGent]

My DAX puts are turning + across the curve as are delta one shorting: insurers and oil giants. Looking to buy more 30% delta June puts on the DAX tomorrow.

Likely to go short BTP futures (Italian gov debt) vs Bund futures (10y German gov debt). That govy basis is going "MIND THE GAP" - on a cheapest to deliver duration basis.

 

[Wattie]

My DAX puts are turning + across the curve as are delta one shorting: insurers and oil giants. Looking to buy more 30% delta June puts on the DAX tomorrow.

Likely to go short BTP futures (Italian gov debt) vs Bund futures (10y German gov debt). That govy basis is going "MIND THE GAP" - on a cheapest to deliver duration basis.

Welcome back MaseratiGent, albeit you appear to be speaking a language unknown to my investment trading ears.

Can you give us a basic appraisal of what you think the current global situation is and highlight what a layman could do to protect/profit. Shorting I understand (I've never done it - others too I suspect) but I see the freefall potential and gains associated.

Understand if you'd rather not but I think your opinion would be valuable advice to others.

 

[Froddy]

My DAX puts are turning + across the curve as are delta one shorting: insurers and oil giants. Looking to buy more 30% delta June puts on the DAX tomorrow.

Likely to go short BTP futures (Italian gov debt) vs Bund futures (10y German gov debt). That govy basis is going "MIND THE GAP" - on a cheapest to deliver duration basis.

MaseratiGent, so great to have you back - you have been sorely missed!

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but for the sake of others, in English this means:
I'm short the DAX, and I've bought OTM 30 delta puts which expire in June.
I'm short insurers and oil giants, and I've bought deep ITM (100 delta) put options
I'm likely to go short BTP and I'm aiming at the gap fill:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/KyshD9Qh/

I must confess that even I am lost on the latter - you are a marvel! Please could you explain?

 

[CatmanV2]

MaseratiGent, so great to have you back - you have been sorely missed!

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but for the sake of others, in English this means:
I'm short the DAX, and I've bought OTM 30 delta puts which expire in June.
I'm short insurers and oil giants
I'm likely to go short BTP and I'm aiming at the gap fill:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/KyshD9Qh/

I must confess that even I am lost on the latter - you are a marvel! Please could you explain?

And you think this is English!?

C

 

[Wattie]

And you think this is English!?

C

If it is I need a Scottish translation. Froddy and MaseratiGent have a skillset way above most with MG being premier league. Stick to the basics like I do but try to gleen advice as you go along.
A short position is where you gain by a fall in price......the potential for that is huge as I'm sure you can see.

 

[tan55555]

What are people's thought on Tullow Oil, seems to have dropped lower than I would expect, might be a good one for a medium term hold?

 

[MaseratiGent]

My DAX puts are turning + across the curve as are delta one shorting: insurers and oil giants. Looking to buy more 30% delta June puts on the DAX tomorrow.

Likely to go short BTP futures (Italian gov debt) vs Bund futures (10y German gov debt). That govy basis is going "MIND THE GAP" - on a cheapest to deliver duration basis.

Apologies! I have been away - family illness. Although I was back in Wimbledon and in the Hand in Hand at 7PM tonight with Wimbledon's finest!

To de-lingo:

1. I am short the DAX but in a way that believes there to be a big jump down before/by June 2020 (because of Coronavirus). Buying put options that are out of the money are cheap way for me to do this. I am a very big bear.
2. I think there is idiosyncratic risk to the insurance industry (claims to hedge against failed contracts due to corona virus) and oil/gas industry (less industrial production/demand) so I have just shorted some individual stocks.
3. Italy has the 3rd largest debt market in the world. It is levered to the hilt - it needs a small knock to kill it. If everyone remembers how painful the Greek government bailout was? That was about 2% EU GDP, Italy is about 15% (I'm not looking this up). It can't be bailed out. So I am shorting the government bonds of Italy vs German government bonds, i.e. the "basis" of yield between the two.

My trades are a 2-6 month horizon and if you buy into them you buy into a nasty global situation. In my mind I write off £10K for a worst case with these trades to make £50-150K (fax free, spread betting) in the absence of being able to sustain normal income.

 

[Wattie]

Well thats me and Masergent as two bears. Every good story needs a third. Hope your family situation has improved.
Do you mind if I ask if you hold gold?