Pandemic? What next after Covid-19?

[cheshiremaserati]

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/10-infectious-diseases-could-be-next-pandemic

A view of the next 10 infectious diseases that could be the next pandemic. Just when we thought it was safe to venture outside our homes.
I receive so many begging SMS's, emails, letters for numerous charities who are all worthwhile causes and would eat up every penny I have and still make no difference to bring to market a new miracle cure for stopping hairs growing out of my nostrils. The worlds biggest killer up there with cancers and heart disease is infectious disease despite vaccination that has made a significant difference to the risks of dying from infectious diseases.

 

[allandwf]

I think this one will be around for a very long time yet. Just testing the waters by sending the peasants back to work!

 

[cheshiremaserati]

Pandemics don't have to follow one after the other. So we may see one of these infections erupt before we are past Covid-19. That could have catastrophic consequences.

We should also be cognizant of the fact that chikunguya, dengue, zika, possibly Ebola and SARs/MERs are still prevalent and people from countries that harbour them were and will be able to travel and bring infections to other countries.

I can see at some point, people will need to provide certificates of immunisation for this and other virus-based infections, much as one has to provide a Yelllow Fever Certificate 9f Vaccination on entry to many countries in Sub Saharan Africa.

 

[CatmanV2]

All of these diseases have been around for some time, so while you're absolutely correct, the very fact that there has been no pandemic of any of them as yet means the probability of a pandemic from them is low.

C

 

[lozcb]

Pandemics don't have to follow one after the other. So we may see one of these infections erupt before we are past Covid-19. That could have catastrophic consequences.

We should also be cognizant of the fact that chikunguya, dengue, zika, possibly Ebola and SARs/MERs are still prevalent and people from countries that harbour them were and will be able to travel and bring infections to other countries.

I can see at some point, people will need to provide certificates of immunisation for this and other virus-based infections, much as one has to provide a Yelllow Fever Certificate 9f Vaccination on entry to many countries in Sub Saharan Africa.

Indeed , when i first started working away in the Middle East 1971 it was mandatory to have at least 5 jabs, i have no problem them bringing back in again , though i would like to be more aware of what they are injecting me with and what side effects and benefits it has ....................some vaccinations have had terrible long term effects in the forces which just happens to be kept rather quiet , im sure Dave would support this

 

[D Walker]

Indeed , when i first started working away in the Middle East 1971 it was mandatory to have at least 5 jabs, i have no problem them bringing back in again , though i would like to be more aware of what they are injecting me with and what side effects and benefits it has ....................some vaccinations have had terrible long term effects in the forces which just happens to be kept rather quiet , im sure Dave would support this

As you say there has a lot been written about Gulf syndrome, Anthrax jabs and others. Taking NAPS tablets( took mine for 2 days and then pretended to take them like a naughty child), had all the jabs though, and some extras because of the team I was in. I honestly don’t think they’ve affected me. I know some people have had bad times afterwards.
Also lots of people chemical poisoning. Depleted uranium in tank rounds springs to mind.....
Who knows.....are we ever likely to know the truth.?

 

[lozcb]

are we ever likely to know the truth.?

A definite no on that one , that kettle has toooooo many worms

 

[Silvercat]

Pandemics don't have to follow one after the other. So we may see one of these infections erupt before we are past Covid-19. That could have catastrophic consequences.

We should also be cognizant of the fact that chikunguya, dengue, zika, possibly Ebola and SARs/MERs are still prevalent and people from countries that harbour them were and will be able to travel and bring infections to other countries.

I can see at some point, people will need to provide certificates of immunisation for this and other virus-based infections, much as one has to provide a Yelllow Fever Certificate 9f Vaccination on entry to many countries in Sub Saharan Africa.

Well may be the price that we will all have to pay is stop travelling across the world. Go back to the 1970's when travelling long haul was an expensive luxury few could afford to do. Perhaps this is where we will end up in the future to reduce pandemic risk. Less globalisation, less transmission risk.

 

[cheshiremaserati]

All of these diseases have been around for some time, so while you're absolutely correct, the very fact that there has been no pandemic of any of them as yet means the probability of a pandemic from them is low.

C

Not quite. Viruses mutate - frequently. It takes just one mutant strain to start an epi/pandemic. Covid-19 is a mutation from SARs back in 2003. There are currently thought to be around double-digit strains (mutations) of Covid-19. Thankfully they are pretty similar so a vaccine is likely to work across strins. But another strain could erupt that the vaccine will not work against. This happens with flu vaccines - the WHO has to guess which strains are likely to be prevalent and which vaccine to use. Last year, I was offered a trivalent or a quadrivalent flu vaccine (3 strains or 4). Thankfully, we have a good understanding of influenza and can accurately predict the vaccine to use. Covid and SARs - completely different dilema.

 

[CatmanV2]

Yes viruses do mutate. As do all living organisms. Most mutations make the organism less viable.

So to restate, unlike COVID-19 these viruses have been around some time. The fact that there has not been a pandemic means there's not likely to be a pandemic any time soon. But of course, million to one shots happen 9 times out of 10

C

 

[cheshiremaserati]

Sadly, viral mutations are what cause epidemics. Free movement of people leads to pandemics. Viruses are extremely adapted to survive and propagate. It was a Microbiology Final Paper Compulsory Question in my final exam:
"Viruses are the most successful adapted life forms on Earth. Discuss".

 

[cheshiremaserati]

Yes viruses do mutate. As do all living organisms. Most mutations make the organism less viable.

So to restate, unlike COVID-19 these viruses have been around some time. The fact that there has not been a pandemic means there's not likely to be a pandemic any time soon. But of course, million to one shots happen 9 times out of 10

C

Pandemics are unpredictable. Covid-19 was not spotted quickly enough to become an epidemic and then a pandemic. I am not a betting man, but I would not bet money that there wont be another pandemic in x or y time. It is simply unknown and unpredictable. Covid 19 is a mutation of SARs and is in the coronavirus family. As is MERs.

 

[lozcb]

Pandemics are unpredictable. Covid-19 was not spotted quickly enough to become an epidemic and then a pandemic. I am not a betting man, but I would not bet money that there wont be another pandemic in x or y time. It is simply unknown and unpredictable. Covid 19 is a mutation of SARs and is in the coronavirus family. As is MERs.

Then also begs the question why are they transported across continents to enable various labs to work on them , surely it increases the risk of leakage into the various communities

 

[Devonboy]

I see a bright golden future, cheap petrol, an new 90mph speed limit on motorways, free Maserati parts and the end of global poverty - let’s set our expectations high! Oh and the ftse100 at 10,000...and a lottery win

 

[cheshiremaserati]

Then also begs the question why are they transported across continents to enable various labs to work on them , surely it increases the risk of leakage into the various communities

Under proper containment measures such as at Porton Down I am not aware of any leakage incidents. The greatest risk is from viruses and bacteria jumping species (their vectors). Bats are a reservoir for many. Covid 19 is believed to be a natural species and not created in a lab as some germ warfare bug. In wet markets as in SE Asia, it had an opportunity to jump into Civets, Pangolins etc which then jumped to man with the slaughter for consumption of this meat, which has had no animal husbandry practice. Similarly Ebola jumped from bats to monkeys and jumped to nan from eating wild monkeys in west africa.

 

[lozcb]

Under proper containment measures such as at Porton Down I am not aware of any leakage incidents. The greatest risk is from viruses and bacteria jumping species (their vectors). Bats are a reservoir for many. Covid 19 is believed to be a natural species and not created in a lab as some germ warfare bug. In wet markets as in SE Asia, it had an opportunity to jump into Civets, Pangolins etc which then jumped to man with the slaughter for consumption of this meat, which has had no animal husbandry practice. Similarly Ebola jumped from bats to monkeys and jumped to nan from eating wild monkeys in west africa.

Yeah I was in Sierra Leone and Liberia 2013/4 when ebola broke out in Guinea , you are aware that Bat poo (guano) is one of the most common baits used for fishing in Asia and some inland waterways rivers in Africa
You don't subscribe to the version that it was leaked either accidentally or carelessly from Wuhan 4 laboratory then

 

[D Walker]

Under proper containment measures such as at Porton Down I am not aware of any leakage incidents.

I held a ( think breakfast jam/ marmalade size) jar once at Porton Down..It was full of liquid nerve agent..Just glad I caught it....
Only requires a pin head dose to be lethal...

 

[CatmanV2]

I held a ( think breakfast jam/ marmalade size) jar once at Porton Down..It was full of liquid nerve agent..Just glad I caught it....
Only requires a pin head dose to be lethal...

Wasn't a decent one then:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VX_(nerve_agent)
<quote>
VX fatalities occur with exposure to tens of milligram quantities via inhalation or absorption through skin
</quote>

That was one of theirs

C

 

[cheshiremaserati]

I held a ( think breakfast jam/ marmalade size) jar once at Porton Down..It was full of liquid nerve agent..Just glad I caught it....
Only requires a pin head dose to be lethal...

I declined a University placement at Porton Down and instead went to Fisons Agrochems in Cambridge working on Research into a new wild oat herbicide and a new fungicide.

 

[cheshiremaserati]

Yeah I was in Sierra Leone and Liberia 2013/4 when ebola broke out in Guinea , you are aware that Bat poo (guano) is one of the most common baits used for fishing in Asia and some inland waterways rivers in Africa
You don't subscribe to the version that it was leaked either accidentally or carelessly from Wuhan 4 laboratory then

Guano enables species to jump. As for conspiracy theories, the data and findings that I have studied points to natural species and the genome data supports that is the stronger hypothesis over a man made genome that has a different genetic footprint. I remain highly sceptical of any data from China. The real deaths are bound to be a lot higher than they disclosed.