MR SNUGGLES GOES TO FUNKYTOWN or VLADIMIR'S SPECIAL sex change OPERATION

[DLax69]

I have been snowed under all day; just coming up for air. Any new news?

 

[DLax69]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/28/himars-ukraine/

 

[Chiveroni]

Was on holiday last week surrounded by Russians. Felt a bit weird.
Eb

In my current role, Russia is one of the countries for which I have responsibility. Every single colleague there is wonderful and, to a man and women, hate what Putin is doing and are really embarrassed. They are younger, have VPN and understand the BS that's going on - but a lot of the older population don't. So far most of them have left the country and we are relocating them to other offices such as Kazakhstan. I'm also responsible for UA (and all the other CIS states such as Belarus). It's a very strange time. Russia has been encouraging large global companies to open up factories in Russia and this has been a huge success. Kraft Heinz, Ferrero, Kelloggs, etc. have all move much of their production into Russia. I just finished a huge project with Ferrero in Moscow and two weeks later Putin invaded. Overnight Ferrero can no longer get the raw materials and all production has stopped. The repercussions are huge.

 

[UlstermanAbroad]

In my current role, Russia is one of the countries for which I have responsibility. Every single colleague there is wonderful and, to a man and women, hate what Putin is doing and are really embarrassed. They are younger, have VPN and understand the BS that's going on - but a lot of the older population don't. So far most of them have left the country and we are relocating them to other offices such as Kazakhstan. I'm also responsible for UA (and all the other CIS states such as Belarus). It's a very strange time. Russia has been encouraging large global companies to open up factories in Russia and this has been a huge success. Kraft Heinz, Ferrero, Kelloggs, etc. have all move much of their production into Russia. I just finished a huge project with Ferrero in Moscow and two weeks later Putin invaded. Overnight Ferrero can no longer get the raw materials and all production has stopped. The repercussions are huge.

That's a very interesting 'take' on things and gels with other reputable sources on the ground.
I'd welcome any other insights / updates you may have, as and when.
What should we call you? Deep throat is taken. Deep sinus? (sorry, weekend mood already)

Interesting interview with Fiona Hill. She of January 6th Committee testimony and Trump's chief
NSC advisor on Russia.

To paraphrase.
She reckons Russia may be aiming to mobilise up to one million men. Comprised of raw recruits,
reservists, veterans. Even the disabled, in some cases. I'm sure the dead have been called up too.
Given the unreliability of records in remote areas where the majority of conscription is occurring.

She suggests strongly that Putin sees this, not as Russia versus Ukraine. But Russia versus America
principally. Though, also including NATO. As we now know. Putin miscalculated that NATO would
respond decisively and that it would essentially rearm Ukraine. She suggests that Putin has no option
and would in any case, now 'go all in'. She said that we ought to assume that Putin is prepared to use
not only tactical nuclear weapons, under circumstances that he has already set out. But also, intermediate and
strategic nuclear weapons. Putin views Ukraine as Cold War 2.0. Hence the use of so-called irregular forces
initially. Russia has dispensed with the subterfuge, though communications are maintained between the Kremlin and White House, in case of an 'incident' that may escalate the conflict at a local command level.
She said that NATO has no option but to resist Putin's aggression. We know the argument why and we learned that lesson too late to prevent WWII.

What Fiona Hill didn't touch on and that I would add. The Chinese Premier is about to be made President for life.
Once this occurs, I would imagine that China will step up pressure on Taiwan. But, not take Taiwan by force if necessary, until they have CVNs that can rival those of the US. Crucially, as with Ukraine, achieving and keeping air superiority is a 'must have' as part of an opposed invasion. Whether by land or sea. This has been the case since 1940. Once China's CVNs, hunter/killer submarines and assault ships are adequate, I would expect pressure on Taiwan to increase exponentially. Chinese tactics are well understood by those who have studied the scenario.
Without going down that rabbit hole, I'd only add that China is also watching what NATO does in Ukraine, very closely.

It depresses me that in the case of an autocracy, one man can take a country to war, if there's nobody to hand to stop him.

Russia doesn't need Ukraine. China doesn't need Taiwan. The war that we're fighting now in Europe and the war that is inevitable between the two China's, are both the product's of the mindset of only two people. Putin and Xi.

 

[fphil]

Yes scary. There are many "doesn't need " one can write down. Should we list?

 

[midlifecrisis]

Many Russian men have voted with their feet and fled to Kazakhstan. According to this report 98,000 have crossed the border. Now doubt similar numbers to Georgia, Azerbaijan Armenia, Finland, Poland and Baltic States

Russian Draft Dodgers Given Refuge In Kazakh Movie Theater

Thousands of Russians have fled to Kazakhstan to avoid being drafted into the army to fight in Ukraine. In the Kazakh city of Oral, a movie theater is allowing Russians who can't find or afford housing in the city to stay there temporarily.

www.rferl.org

 

[D Walker]

Many Russian men have voted with their feet and fled to Kazakhstan. According to this report 98,000 have crossed the border. Now doubt similar numbers to Georgia, Azerbaijan Armenia, Finland, Poland and Baltic States

Russian Draft Dodgers Given Refuge In Kazakh Movie Theater

Thousands of Russians have fled to Kazakhstan to avoid being drafted into the army to fight in Ukraine. In the Kazakh city of Oral, a movie theater is allowing Russians who can't find or afford housing in the city to stay there temporarily.

www.rferl.org

It’s another Putin masterstoke. Now he has loads of native speaking Russians in neighbouring countries who need liberating from fascists. They just don’t know it yet.
the man is a master tactician playing the long long game.

 

[fphil]

And to complicate matters there is the CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization - Wikipedia a kind of NATO alliance (forgotten by the media) between some eastern countries which could work for the "new" territories of the Federation of Russia!

 

[Wattie]

I’ve had a few hours to do some in depth analysis on the Nordstream sabotage. I was hoping for some assistance on here with some theories but it all went radio silent.

My conclusion - Clearly, this was the work of the IRANians!

Who else could it be?

I'm now expecting an Iranian Republican Guard rowing boat to wash up on the shores of Germany at any moment. Complete with water logged Iranian passports, a map (with several X’s right on the pipeline), along with an empty box of Acme industrial strength underwater bombs made in Russia, and a payment receipt signed by Putin himself.

Lovely touch bythe American navy to offer “security“ assistance in the area

 

[DLax69]

I fear that generational divides are as responsible as anything else for explaining the disconnects within any given country.

I’ve had a few hours to do some in depth analysis on the Nordstream sabotage. I was hoping for some assistance on here with some theories but it all went radio silent.

My conclusion - Clearly, this was the work of the IRANians!

Who else could it be?

I'm now expecting an Iranian Republican Guard rowing boat to wash up on the shores of Germany at any moment. Complete with water logged Iranian passports, a map (with several X’s right on the pipeline), along with an empty box of Acme industrial strength underwater bombs made in Russia, and a payment receipt signed by Putin himself.

Lovely touch bythe American navy to offer “security“ assistance in the area

They are always there. Red Crown still handles all NATO air traffic in the Adriatic, Med, and Arabian Gulf...

 

[DLax69]

It’s another Putin masterstoke. Now he has loads of native speaking Russians in neighbouring countries who need liberating from fascists. They just don’t know it yet.
the man is a master tactician playing the long long game.

How reliable do you believe these folks to be? I don't doubt that there are some sleepers in the mix...but not sure that the vast majority aren't young capitalist-leaning men who have no desire to die in UKR.

Locally, we are now seeing RUS refugees joining the UKR families...difference being the UKR families have no adult men in tow...

 

[D Walker]

How reliable do you believe these folks to be? I don't doubt that there are some sleepers in the mix...but not sure that the vast majority aren't young capitalist-leaning men who have no desire to die in UKR.

Locally, we are now seeing RUS refugees joining the UKR families...difference being the UKR families have no adult men in tow...

Sorry, it was sarcasm/tongue in cheek all tho I do share your thoughts on “sleepers”

 

[midlifecrisis]

Sorry, it was sarcasm/tongue in cheek all tho I do share your thoughts on “sleepers”

At the moment those sleepers have just woken up in a Kazakh cinema. Poor fellas.

The CSTO isn't as coherent as NATO in its goals, many members have voiced an opinion against Russian Annexation and do not recognise the referendums. Clearly, they don't want to be embroiled in Putin's plan of 'Russian Self-defence'

 

[midlifecrisis]

I’ve had a few hours to do some in depth analysis on the Nordstream sabotage. I was hoping for some assistance on here with some theories but it all went radio silent.

My conclusion - Clearly, this was the work of the IRANians!

Who else could it be?

I'm now expecting an Iranian Republican Guard rowing boat to wash up on the shores of Germany at any moment. Complete with water logged Iranian passports, a map (with several X’s right on the pipeline), along with an empty box of Acme industrial strength underwater bombs made in Russia, and a payment receipt signed by Putin himself.

Lovely touch bythe American navy to offer “security“ assistance in the area

I have it on good authority that these Iranian Special Forces launched their attack from Northern France. Nothing suspicious about a boat load of middle-eastern types getting into a dinghy...

 

[Chiveroni]

That's a very interesting 'take' on things and gels with other reputable sources on the ground.
I'd welcome any other insights / updates you may have, as and when.
What should we call you? Deep throat is taken. Deep sinus? (sorry, weekend mood already)

Interesting interview with Fiona Hill. She of January 6th Committee testimony and Trump's chief
NSC advisor on Russia.

To paraphrase.
She reckons Russia may be aiming to mobilise up to one million men. Comprised of raw recruits,
reservists, veterans. Even the disabled, in some cases. I'm sure the dead have been called up too.
Given the unreliability of records in remote areas where the majority of conscription is occurring.

She suggests strongly that Putin sees this, not as Russia versus Ukraine. But Russia versus America
principally. Though, also including NATO. As we now know. Putin miscalculated that NATO would
respond decisively and that it would essentially rearm Ukraine. She suggests that Putin has no option
and would in any case, now 'go all in'. She said that we ought to assume that Putin is prepared to use
not only tactical nuclear weapons, under circumstances that he has already set out. But also, intermediate and
strategic nuclear weapons. Putin views Ukraine as Cold War 2.0. Hence the use of so-called irregular forces
initially. Russia has dispensed with the subterfuge, though communications are maintained between the Kremlin and White House, in case of an 'incident' that may escalate the conflict at a local command level.
She said that NATO has no option but to resist Putin's aggression. We know the argument why and we learned that lesson too late to prevent WWII.

What Fiona Hill didn't touch on and that I would add. The Chinese Premier is about to be made President for life.
Once this occurs, I would imagine that China will step up pressure on Taiwan. But, not take Taiwan by force if necessary, until they have CVNs that can rival those of the US. Crucially, as with Ukraine, achieving and keeping air superiority is a 'must have' as part of an opposed invasion. Whether by land or sea. This has been the case since 1940. Once China's CVNs, hunter/killer submarines and assault ships are adequate, I would expect pressure on Taiwan to increase exponentially. Chinese tactics are well understood by those who have studied the scenario.
Without going down that rabbit hole, I'd only add that China is also watching what NATO does in Ukraine, very closely.

It depresses me that in the case of an autocracy, one man can take a country to war, if there's nobody to hand to stop him.

Russia doesn't need Ukraine. China doesn't need Taiwan. The war that we're fighting now in Europe and the war that is inevitable between the two China's, are both the product's of the mindset of only two people. Putin and Xi.

You can call me deep-ly boring

 

[D Walker]

Well to my mind in the next few weeks/month we’re going to get to a point where Putin will only have two courses of action
1 Accept defeat
2 Use nuclear weapons.

 

[Wattie]

Well to my mind in the next few weeks/month we’re going to get to a point where Putin will only have two courses of action
1 Accept defeat
2 Use nuclear weapons.

How about a 3rd.
Negotiate a peace deal.
(Or have we all gone mental?)

 

[jasst]

How about a 3rd.
Negotiate a peace deal.
(Or have we all gone mental?)

You don't negotiate with bullying tyrants

 

[D Walker]

How about a 3rd.
Negotiate a peace deal.
(Or have we all gone mental?)

I just don’t believe he would entertain it. And I certainly don’t think the Ukrainians should.

 

[Wattie]

I just don’t believe he would entertain it. And I certainly don’t think the Ukrainians should.

So if a nuclear conflict arises cos of all this you’re happy for your family to all die?
Maybe it’s worth a try eh…..