Meanwhile. On the Ukrainian border.

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fphil

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If you keep on with these cute analysis I would block the border and no more LE MANS2022 !!!
...
in memory of the 100 000 dead soldiers for this period
 
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Meet Switchblade.

The second offensive in Ukraine this year is going to be a complete bloodbath, if the Russians do as expected and double down on their most recent, failed offensive. The so-called Butcher of Aleppo, Aleksandr Dvornikov, who now commands Russian ground forces in Ukraine, will seek to maintain the initiative using the most brutal tactics, as well as instilling new levels of terror in the populace. More limited objectives have been set. Involving the Donbas and expanding the land corridor to Crimea. If achieved, then the Russians will pause for longer to re-equip.

However, the US, UK and EU are delivering roughly the equivalent of twenty C-17 aircraft a day, of military supplies to Eastern Poland, which is going straight across the border into Ukraine. Each aircraft can carry about eighty-five tons of supplies.
At the most sophisticated end of man-portable weapons is Switchblade. The larger version can kill Russian tanks, because its designed to strike from above, where their armour is weakest.
The weather is critical. There is a succession of storm fronts about a week apart rolling in from the US across South Eastern Europe. The Ukrainians are praying for terrible weather and especially huge amounts of rain between now and month end. If this happens, it will force Russian armour out of the vast flat farmland of Eastern Ukraine and force the Russians to move by road again. And we all saw what happened last time they tried that.
Putin badly needs this next offensive to succeed. For his own immediate future to be secure. Putin has promised Dvornikov promotion to Russia's equivalent of Chairman Of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, if he achieves his objectives.
I'd expect the gloves to come off, for this next offensive and anticipate the use of thermobaric, chemical and nerve weapons as necessary.
Finland and Sweden are actively discussing terms for joining NATO, with NATO officials in Brussels.
The sinking of the Russian cruiser in the Black Sea will have been the cause of particular pain to Putin as the Russian Navy has always been his most favoured military branch. If you believe Putin's official biography, his father served in the Russian submarine service during the 1930's. Hence his Naval bias.
 
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It looks like it is about to get even more grim indeed.
One can only feel for the people over there, not asking for any of this. Some of the stories that surface are horrendous (Butcha, , rape, women's heads being shaved bald...)

Found this to be an interesting view on things (from a political point of view) by John Mearsheimer:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine
(here's also a recent interview with him:
)

Please keep your views coming @UlstermanAbroad , they are very very interesting!
 

midlifecrisis

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Radio Free Europe published a report of a conversation between a Russian Soldier and hid wife giving him permission to rape Ukrainian women but not tell her about it, just use contraception.

How indoctrinated are the Russians to think like this?
Simple, Russian have never believed in personal freedom or personal will but of collective Russia. Look at the language used by Putin. Ukraine as Slavic brothers, a greater Russia. There's history of ethnic cleansing in Kaliningrad, which prior to the 1920's was Germanic Koenigsberg, the Germans were shipped off to Germany and Russians moved in. Similar will happen to the Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea and any other territory they steal from Ukraine.
Unless the Russian advance is repelled, Putin is removed by either people within his cartel or by popular uprising then this war will continue for years. I've listed the above in likelihood.
 

fphil

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Found this to be an interesting view on things (from a political point of view) by John Mearsheimer:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/why-john-mearsheimer-blames-the-us-for-the-crisis-in-ukraine
This seems obvious to me with 2 comments. Russia has fought for access to the Black Sea for centuries and will likely keep the Azov Sea. The EU does not want to expand anymore and France certainly does not want the competition of Ukrainian agriculture with agricultural funds/trusts of 100,000-360,000 hectares belonging to oligarchs.
 

midlifecrisis

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The Ukrainians found some Russian tnt , I assume made in Russia as its just blocks of wood :D

This is the result of the corruption within the country. Someone got paid for supplying the Russian army 'TNT' and quartermasters got paid in accepting it and storing it. They think it's not going to be used and it'll be alright. Same goes for the rest of their kit. Poor sods on the front line have no chance, out of date food, ammo and poor kit in general.

But nevermind, Putin's cartel is fine and dandy and have nice gin palaces in the Med.
 

Wack61

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this story, shocked me to the core :(

All armies rape and loot in war, not all soldiers but many will , this one is no different , other than husbands asking permission from their wives which has to be a first.

Many Russians view Ukrainians as low born people and treat them with disgust but it appears they don't know why , state indoctrination

This guy asks random Russians what they think of Ukraine

 
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