Brexit Deal

[GeoffCapes]

View attachment 57033

I believe this is countries debt. As opposed to personal debt.
I would imagine that figure is rather more scary.

However, I know the levels of personal debt in Italy are quite low. Whereas in the UK it is probably the highest in Europe if not the world.

 

[Zep]

However, I know the levels of personal debt in Italy are quite low. Whereas in the UK it is probably the highest in Europe if not the world.

Nail meet hammer. It’s actually the lowest in Europe.

 

[2b1ask1]

The lunacy I refer to is of course the compound differences between the nations when the currency is common meaning ever greater QE required until it all goes boobs up!

 

[Wattie]

how is it possible this didn't expose the lunacy of trying to peg 28/27 nations currencies???

Because politicians got involved and thought it’s a brilliant idea.....and the bankers (Goldman) fiddled books to enable countriesto join the lunacy.......earning millions in bonuses in the process.

Greek Debt Crisis: How Goldman Sachs Helped Greece to Mask its True Debt

Goldman Sachs helped the Greek government to mask the true extent of its deficit with the help of a derivatives deal that legally circumvented the EU Maastricht deficit rules. At some point the so-called cross currency swaps will mature, and swell the country's already bloated deficit.

www.spiegel.de

 

[GeoffCapes]

This is a list of household debt vs GDP for the world. You can see the UK are at 86.35%
Whereas Italy is only 41.31%

List of countries by household debt - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

However, this is only up to December 2017.

This data shows a sharp increase since then. Although it has fallen back a touch.

UK Household Debt, 1987 – 2024 | CEIC Data

UK Household Debt reached 2,746.1 USD bn in Sep 2023, compared with the reported number of 2,815.1 USD bn in the previous quarter.

www.ceicdata.com

Doesn't paint a very good picture whatever way you look at it.

 

[Zep]

I'm long enough to recall Maggie having a surplus; whilst I was not a fan of her, the prospect of the proverbial hitting the fan is squarely at the feet of successive governments since, such wondrous decisions like tying the £ to the Euro and then chucking £ billions at it in 24 hrs to try and salvage the inevitable; how is it possible this didn't expose the lunacy of trying to peg 28/27 nations currencies???

Be careful, this is perilously close to this being the fault of successive governments not applying the rules and managing things rather than the EU not letting them. And that would make this whole thing moot.

 

[Wattie]

Trouble with Italy is that the banks have been buying the governments debt...Ponzi scheme.
Hence they’re all going bust.....non performing loans are horrendous.

The Italians have discovered a way to cover it all up though......banker suicides are on the up....even if they were pushed. Enter exhibit 1, David Rossi...or should I say exit....fascinating video footage...as two figure look over him to ensure he’s dead before leaving.

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[safrane]

Have to say this is at times a very entertaining thread... full of **** from both sides and the hilarious attempts to prove one side is right or the other.

Sad fact whichever way this thing goes you can bet the very rich will get richer and the poor will be worse off... and the middle (most of us) will pay for it all.

Debt fuels a capitalist economy and without it most countries would be in dire straights... but the sad thing is most of the stuff on credit is 'desired' goods not needs and those who are least able to afford it get charged the most for it.

 

[whereskeith]

S

someone asked for views re the prospects for Europe about a dozen posts or so ago......

Exactly my point .
We’re all doomed anyway

 

[MarkMas]

Well, lets get things balanced. The cost of Brexit thus far has been put at £66 billion. With 60 million (or thereabouts in the country) I'd say Brexit has cost £1,100 each so far.
Multiply by 2.4 (average UK family size) You're looking at £2,640.
And that is without the direct costs like food and fuel going up. I'd be willing to guess that the £4,300 isn't too far away.

Well your comment seems to demonstrate that Project Fear was very successful in tricking people into thinking that 'GDP reduced by £4,300 per family' was somehow the same as 'cost per family of £4,300'. Evidently a very effective deception.

 

[MarkMas]

Nope, Standard & Poors came up with that figure. With your daughter working in Insurance she will know how well respected S&P are. .......

Standard & Poor's fined and banned from rating certain securities for a year
The ratings firm agrees to pay more than $77m to settle charges tied to its role in the financial crisis and will also take a ‘timeout’ from rating some mortgage securities in an unprecedented move by regulators
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ne-banned-rating-mortgage-securities-one-year[/QUOTE]

 

[GeoffCapes]

Well your comment seems to demonstrate that Project Fear was very successful in tricking people into thinking that 'GDP reduced by £4,300 per family' was somehow the same as 'cost per family of £4,300'. Evidently a very effective deception.

Could it not be argued that 'Project Fear' should actually be called 'Project Fact'? As I've yet to see a Brexiter successfully argue that because of Brexit we are better off? And we've not even left yet!
The devaluation of the pound is just the start.
Wait until (god forbid) we leave without a deal! Project Fear would have gone from Project Fact to Project F*ck!

There certainly isn't any tricking going on with the number of people starring unemployment in the face. Or is that just more project fear and it's not really down to Brexit?

 

[GeoffCapes]

Standard & Poor's fined and banned from rating certain securities for a year
The ratings firm agrees to pay more than $77m to settle charges tied to its role in the financial crisis and will also take a ‘timeout’ from rating some mortgage securities in an unprecedented move by regulators
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ne-banned-rating-mortgage-securities-one-year

[/QUOTE]

Every ratings firm took a battering over sub-prime mortgages. Hardly news.
It takes nothing away from the fact that S&P are an independent ratings firm.

 

[MarkMas]

Every ratings firm took a battering over sub-prime mortgages. Hardly news.
It takes nothing away from the fact that S&P are an independent ratings firm.

I certainly accept the fact that S&P is an independent ratings firm. I also accept the fact that they are demonstrably incapable of providing independent or credible financial or economic evaluations, based on their record of an incompetent, deceptive and near-criminal role in the 2008 sub-prime debacle. I don't see why I should be expected to believe anything that organisation says after that. They should have suffered the same fate as Arthur Andersen after Enron.

And even if one was willing to accept anything S&P says, once again, they have said that the UK has lost £66Bn in 'economic growth' (ie an estimated loss in GDP due to Brexit - since they may have been many other factors) and the Remainer (and economically illiterate) journalist has translated this into 'cost each person £1,000'. But this is turning a (notional) 'economic activity' figure into an actual 'loss' figure. At the simplest level this is confusing 'turnover' with 'P&L', but it is really worse than that, since GDP is such a silly measure of an economy and bears only slight relationship to individual financial well-being.

And, finally, Remainers continue to go on about the supposed damage to the UK economy from 'Brexit uncertainty' and then 'Brexit' (presumably), based on all sorts of analysis and forecasting which may or may not be credible, but they do not pay attention to what the economiv conseuences of staying in the EU might be (using the same sorts of - made up - analysses and forecasts) which can be spun to show the EU haveing a golden future or being a complete disaster. The choice is alwasys presented as 'stay with the lovely EU, which will always be fine' vs 'face the inevitable doom of independence'.

And really finally, Remainers don't 'get' that most Brexiters are willing to take a certain amount of economic pain (if there is some), in order to do the right thing (even people without wealth and privilege). Just as it was worth experiencing some pain to try to deal with the attempted or successful European conquests of Britain in 43, 991, 1066, 1554, 1588, 1597, 1688, 1803-1805, 1939-1940 and 1973.

 

[MaserCoupe]

We keep hearing that we are the fifth (or whatever) largest economy, would that still be the case when we leave? Are we the fifth largest economy because we are part of a trading bloc? If the strength of our economy is nothing to do with the EU bloc then why are we leaving it? Surely it’s not Sovereignty is it? Any future trade agreements we do will be a compromise of something on both sides, a give and take of some sort in Sovereignty, immigration, the exchange of people, money, goods and services. It’s a real head scratcher.......now which countries do we want to trade with and what will they want from us and what will we want from them. We keep hearing, screw the £59billion to the EU they can take a hike, now tell me which country will want to trade with a country that reneges on its trading neighbours............. Would we want to trade with a country that doesn’t hold up its end of the bargain? Anyway off to the polling station now to put an X on someone. All with the human powers of “empirical” reasoning, deduction and I’ll be sure to check my “feelings” at the door, I hasten to add. Ciao for now amici...

 

[safrane]

Withdraw bill delayed again now... will this never end? ??

 

[dickygrace]

Withdraw bill delayed again now... will this never end? ??

No, if we stay in, half the country will be livid; if we leave, half the country will campaign to rejoin.

 

[D Walker]

I'm beginning to wonder if Antartica is taking immigrants ?

 

[MaserCoupe]

I'm beginning to wonder if Antartica is taking immigrants ?

Give it a few years and it’ll be habitable....Climate change may well take care of that for you. I wonder what nationality we’ll be required to apply for, to inhabit it?

 

[2b1ask1]

I'm beginning to wonder if Antartica is taking immigrants ?

Possibly but I hear they have POLE tax!!!!