Brexit Deal

[Wattie]

Are you this passionate about politics in the country in which you actually live, Wattie, or is it only our situation in a country half a planet away that causes you so much excitement?

Nope FC as I don’t get a vote over here.

Hence my passion for the one I did cast in the Uk and expected to be respected. Sadly it was not....millions feel the same.

So, It’s a bit like deep sea fishing now. I keep throwing out “chum” and remainers all keep biting.....constantly trying to throw the hook

 

[Wattie]

I think the country are realising that a No Deal Brexit is a very bad idea. (at last).

And that we need clarification on the 'type' of Brexit we want.

This, to me at least, shows how mis-lead the leavers were about Brexit before the referendum.

They were told that we would strike up deals and it would be so easy we should have done it years ago.

They may still want to leave, but not at the cost of losing their jobs or their homes or their way of living.

Which, if all of that happens, means leaving is just sheer bloody mindedness.

Cutting your nose off to spite your face?

This just depresses me.
1 we haven’t even given it a chance
2 Europe is that knackered no remainer wants to join the Euro.
3 we could have started preparing for no deal 3 years ago...if we’d had someone that believed.

Can a single remainer explain why “no deal” is bad for us, but the Eu will be just fine?

Clock is ticking....::,.

 

[GeoffCapes]

This just depresses me.
1 we haven’t even given it a chance
2 Europe is that knackered no remainer wants to join the Euro.
3 we could have started preparing for no deal 3 years ago...if we’d had someone that believed.

Can a single remainer explain why “no deal” is bad for us, but the Eu will be just fine?

Clock is ticking....::,.

1. We don't want to give it a chance. Everyone. And I mean everyone with an ounce of economic sense has said a no deal Brexit would be catastrophic for the UK.
A bit like Sky diving without a parachute. No one has done it (apart from the guy who jumped into a net) but everyone agrees it is a very bad idea.

1. Europe is knackered. But we have our own currency, so if Europe tanks, our currency gives us a lovely safety net.
2. Yes, three years of prep for Brexit, and the ones trying to work out a deal have realised it's a very bad idea.

As for answering why no deal is a bad idea how about a few of these for starters.

No trade deals. With anyone! No one even uses WTO! - That in itself should be enough. But I will humour you with more.
Border delays.
Ex-pats living in the EU will have to re-asses their rights and whether they can live and work in the EU.
Obviously we would not pay out our £13billion a year, but we would lose loads of subsidies, farmers and Universities being the worst hit.
With no deal there would have to be a hard border between Northern Ireland and The Republic.
We would have at least 21 months before any trade deal with the EU could be implemented. So it would take the time to do a deal (we know that it won't be easy from the last 3 years of discussion, but then add 21 months to it). So basically 5+ years before any trade deals with our biggest trading partner.
So, I would figure, 5-10 years in recession, minimum.
Add to that the shortages of drugs, port delays, Kent in gridlock for 10 years. Probably the same around Felixstowe and Portsmouth as well.

Is that enough or do you still want me to continue?

No Deal Brexit is a VERY bad idea.

 

[Wattie]

1. We don't want to give it a chance. Everyone. And I mean everyone with an ounce of economic sense has said a no deal Brexit would be catastrophic for the UK.
A bit like Sky diving without a parachute. No one has done it (apart from the guy who jumped into a net) but everyone agrees it is a very bad idea.

1. Europe is knackered. But we have our own currency, so if Europe tanks, our currency gives us a lovely safety net.
2. Yes, three years of prep for Brexit, and the ones trying to work out a deal have realised it's a very bad idea.

As for answering why no deal is a bad idea how about a few of these for starters.

No trade deals. With anyone! No one even uses WTO! - That in itself should be enough. But I will humour you with more.
Border delays.
Ex-pats living in the EU will have to re-asses their rights and whether they can live and work in the EU.
Obviously we would not pay out our £13billion a year, but we would lose loads of subsidies, farmers and Universities being the worst hit.
With no deal there would have to be a hard border between Northern Ireland and The Republic.
We would have at least 21 months before any trade deal with the EU could be implemented. So it would take the time to do a deal (we know that it won't be easy from the last 3 years of discussion, but then add 21 months to it). So basically 5+ years before any trade deals with our biggest trading partner.
So, I would figure, 5-10 years in recession, minimum.
Add to that the shortages of drugs, port delays, Kent in gridlock for 10 years. Probably the same around Felixstowe and Portsmouth as well.

Is that enough or do you still want me to continue?

No Deal Brexit is a VERY bad idea.

Yup I’d like you to continue....

 

[Wattie]

1. We don't want to give it a chance. Everyone. And I mean everyone with an ounce of economic sense has said a no deal Brexit would be catastrophic for the UK.
A bit like Sky diving without a parachute. No one has done it (apart from the guy who jumped into a net) but everyone agrees it is a very bad idea.

1. Europe is knackered. But we have our own currency, so if Europe tanks, our currency gives us a lovely safety net.
2. Yes, three years of prep for Brexit, and the ones trying to work out a deal have realised it's a very bad idea.

As for answering why no deal is a bad idea how about a few of these for starters.

No trade deals. With anyone! No one even uses WTO! - That in itself should be enough. But I will humour you with more.
Border delays.
Ex-pats living in the EU will have to re-asses their rights and whether they can live and work in the EU.
Obviously we would not pay out our £13billion a year, but we would lose loads of subsidies, farmers and Universities being the worst hit.
With no deal there would have to be a hard border between Northern Ireland and The Republic.
We would have at least 21 months before any trade deal with the EU could be implemented. So it would take the time to do a deal (we know that it won't be easy from the last 3 years of discussion, but then add 21 months to it). So basically 5+ years before any trade deals with our biggest trading partner.
So, I would figure, 5-10 years in recession, minimum.
Add to that the shortages of drugs, port delays, Kent in gridlock for 10 years. Probably the same around Felixstowe and Portsmouth as well.

Is that enough or do you still want me to continue?

No Deal Brexit is a VERY bad idea.

Are you still selling Irish red herring?
The Eu said no hard border under “no deal”
But we”ll have one under a deal?

 

[MarkMas]

I think the country are realising that a No Deal Brexit is a very bad idea. (at last).

And that we need clarification on the 'type' of Brexit we want.

This, to me at least, shows how mis-lead the leavers were about Brexit before the referendum.

They were told that we would strike up deals and it would be so easy we should have done it years ago.

They may still want to leave, but not at the cost of losing their jobs or their homes or their way of living.

Which, if all of that happens, means leaving is just sheer bloody mindedness.

Cutting your nose off to spite your face?

Of course a 'no deal Brexit' is a bad thing (for both the UK and the EU), but you can't have a sensible negotiation without being clear that 'no deal' is a possible outcome, and so it is also necessary to talk up 'no deal' as being 'not so bad'. Again, my analogy is that if you take the train and boat to go look at a used Maserati 3200 in Belfast, you HAVE to tell the seller that you have a return ticket in your pocket and you are pretty happy with your Triumph Spitfire at home, because to tell the seller that you have come all this way and you MUST buy his 3200 at any price is just a crazy way to start a negotiation. And the people who demand 'ruling out no deal' know this perfectly well, and are just cynically trying to stop Brexit (or just hurt the Conservative Government).

And yes, some campaigners did talk up how easy and painless Brexit would be, but not all campaigners or voters thought this, and many realised that it would be a tough and tricky negotiation. And many Leavers expected that there would also be some practical negative consequences, which would be worth it for the benefits, and the moral case for leaving. What was underestimated by most, I think, was the debilitating effect of a narrow referendum win, the lack of a strong Conservative majority, the intransigence and effectiveness of the EU, and brilliant manoeuvring by Remainer insurgents within Parliament and the Press.

 

[GeoffCapes]

Yup I’d like you to continue....

Was the financial collapse of the UK economy not enough?

 

[GeoffCapes]

Are you still selling Irish red herring?
The Eu said no hard border under “no deal”
But we”ll have one under a deal?

What the EU say, and what EU law state are very different things.

 

[Wattie]

Of course a 'no deal Brexit' is a bad thing (for both the UK and the EU), but you can't have a sensible negotiation without being clear that 'no deal' is a possible outcome, and so it is also necessary to talk up 'no deal' as being 'not so bad'. Again, my analogy is that if you take the train and boat to go look at a used Maserati 3200 in Belfast, you HAVE to tell the seller that you have a return ticket in your pocket and you are pretty happy with your Triumph Spitfire at home, because to tell the seller that you have come all this way and you MUST buy his 3200 at any price is just a crazy way to start a negotiation. And the people who demand 'ruling out no deal' know this perfectly well, and are just cynically trying to stop Brexit (or just hurt the Conservative Government).

And yes, some campaigners did talk up how easy and painless Brexit would be, but not all campaigners or voters thought this, and many realised that it would be a tough and tricky negotiation. And many Leavers expected that there would also be some practical negative consequences, which would be worth it for the benefits, and the moral case for leaving. What was underestimated by most, I think, was the debilitating effect of a narrow referendum win, the lack of a strong Conservative majority, the intransigence and effectiveness of the EU, and brilliant manoeuvring by Remainer insurgents within Parliament and the Press.

Agree but yourewasting time trying to explain this.
Can I suggest that all future votes on anything are run through a computer that is intelligent enough to decide if we are all better or worse off.
Democracy fecked.

 

[Wattie]

Was the financial collapse of the UK economy not enough?

No cos that’s total ********.

 

[Wattie]

What the EU say, and what EU law state are very different things.

Oh, so they’ll impose a hard border we’ve said we won’t and start a war in Ireland ending years of peace will they?

 

[GeoffCapes]

No cos that’s total ****.

Explain to me why it wouldn't happen then with a No Deal Brexit when our nearest trading partners have 21 month 'settling in period' after signing a new trade deal.
Or are we going to change EU rules.... hang on, we can't do that if we have left!

 

[GeoffCapes]

Oh, so they’ll impose a hard border we’ve said we won’t and start a war in Ireland ending years of peace will they?

Then an arrangement will have to be made regarding the border. If you do it for one, you have to do it for all.

 

[Wattie]

Then an arrangement will have to be made regarding the border. If you do it for one, you have to do it for all.

The Eu has already said what it will do. Who else do they have to do it for?

 

[Wanderer]

Then an arrangement will have to be made regarding the border. If you do it for one, you have to do it for all.

Fact is under the CTA UK and Irish citizens are not considered foreign to one another, so you can't have a wall or hard border, surely that's against some UN or international law? There was border control during The Troubles, but not really a hard border as such.

This is why the UK and The Republic joined the EU at exactly the same time......

 

[Wattie]

Explain to me why it wouldn't happen then with a No Deal Brexit when our nearest trading partners have 21 month 'settling in period' after signing a new trade deal.
Or are we going to change EU rules.... hang on, we can't do that if we have left!

Well for a start we have the ability to keep £35 odd billion. Secondly we have the ability to print our own currency and control our own interest rates in accordance with our economy.
Most Eu countries are bankrupt, in recession, or about to go their.
Name me 6. Major Eu players?
How many are bust?
Who are the others?
They cannot print their own currency nor control their interest rates and they are all screwed as a result.

 

[GeoffCapes]

Well for a start we have the ability to keep £35 odd billion. Secondly we have the ability to print our own currency and control our own interest rates in accordance with our economy.
Most Eu countries are bankrupt, in recession, or about to go their.
Name me 6. Major Eu players?
How many are bust?
Whip are the others?
They cannot print their own currency nor control their interest rates and they are all screwed as a result.

You've mentioned other countries. But why wouldn't it happen? Unless of course you have access to information the the worlds finest economists don't?
Printing money is a short term fix.
However, if the country cannot export profitably, then it won't export.
No exports mean no sales.
No sales mean less tax to collect in the UK.
Less tax means less the government have to spend.
Less Government expenditure means services are cut.
When services are cut, people lose their jobs and become reliant on the Government for welfare.
But when the Government doesn't have the money to pay it's bills, taxes go up.
When taxes go up people have less money.
With less money to spend the economy goes into recession.
More lose their jobs.
And so on and so on.

 

[Wattie]

What the EU say, and what EU law state are very different things.

Actually I think what you mean is “what Eu law says and what it states is subject to change” to protect the Eu.

 

[MarkMas]

It's a long one..... (as the bishop said to the actress)


I had an interesting conversation at dinner last week, when someone asked me where I stood on Brexit.

I said, "Well, let me first lay out some of my principles" These were, roughly:

- trade is really important, especially free and friction-less trade, and it is vital that the UK businesses can have that;

- I'm anti-racist, so opposed to anything which panders to xenophobia or exclusionism;

- I'm very concerned about the potential domination of superpowers like Russia, China and America;

- I'm also concerned about the rise of isolationist nationalism in Europe and elsewhere;

- I think European values of cooperation, peace-making and diplomacy are important regionally and on a world stage;

- I think supporting growth, development and democracy in Eastern Europe is vital for the security and well-being of Western Europe;

- I'm in favour of political unions for people with common values and connected geographies, and have spoken out strongly in favour of Scotland staying in the union with England;

- I'm concerned about the environment and think it is really important that nations work closely together to improve the situation;

- I'm also concerned about the strong possibility of a local economic downturn.

As I said all this, my questioner smiled increasingly broadly, and finally exclaimed, "And THAT is why all sensible people agree that we all need to campaign together to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU."

They were rather surprised when I said, "No that is why the UK needs to leave the EU as soon as possible."

Because:

- global free trade is important and I don't approve of restrictive local cartels that have no internal tariffs and high external tariffs;

- I certainly don't approve of such cartels that are centred around one primary ethnicity (such as white-European) and are particularly exclusionary (for example with agricultural tariffs) toward other ethnicities, such as 'African' or 'Asian';

- while superpowers are a concern, most countries are not part of these, and it seems immoral and unwise to try to create a new superpower to confront the others, potentially risking a confrontation between global power blocs;

- it seems that a significant focus for, and accelerator of, isolationist nationalism within Europe is a direct response to attempts to compulsorily hold the nations together in a homogeneous and centrally-managed union (as with Yugoslavia, or the USSR or the EU), and a better curb on nationalism would be to allow nations to be free, and to encourage them to engage with each other in an independent but cooperative way;

- the UK (despite some colonialist-era errors) has been a strong proponent of European-style cooperation, peace-making and diplomacy regionally and on a world stage, and to subsume that into an ineffective and incoherent EU foreign policy would reduce the overall positive impact;

- EU policies that denude Eastern European countries of their best workers, discourage the location of industries in Eastern Europe, and undermine their economies with vanity infrastructure, cheap Euros and fixed exchange rates are dangerous for east-west European stability;

- a political union can probably only be effective and enduring when it applies to a fairly small and contiguous geographical area and people who closely share linguistic and social norms, and any attempt to widen this to encompass a more diverse group has to be imposed, it seems to me, by manipulation or force, and is doomed to fail;

- environmental problems are mostly regional or global, and while solving regional ones by the imposition of rules across a regional union is an option, this cannot work globally, so in the end the environment is best protected by local action, national rules, and international cooperation;

- in the face of a local economic downturn, recovery is more likely if each nation is able to make local adjustments to their economic, fiscal and industrial circumstances, than if several diverse economies are yoked together by common rules and currencies.

"So, no, my principles cause me to conclude that the UK should be out of the EU as fast as possible."

Some of the dinner guests were very upset and we had to leave.

 

[GeoffCapes]

Haven't you just contradicted yourself?

I'm anti-racist, so opposed to anything which panders to xenophobia or exclusionism;

Then.

a political union can probably only be effective and enduring when it applies to a fairly small and contiguous geographical area and people who closely share linguistic and social norms, and any attempt to widen this to encompass a more diverse group has to be imposed, it seems to me, by manipulation or force, and is doomed to fail;

On one hand you don't want people to be excluded, and then you say political unions can only be for people who share the same (or similar) language and social norms.